Belief-Guided Inference Control for Large Language Model Services via Verifiable Observations

Reliability in large language model (LLM) systems is typically framed as a function of model capability. We challenge this by demonstrating that reliability is significantly influenced by \emph{inference-time control} -- the computational layer governing task framing and context selection. We introduce \emph{CogniConsole}, an architectural instantiation that externalizes this control into a structured interface combining programmatic coordination with bounded prompt-based reasoning. Through \emph{controllability-oriented probes} ($N=489$) in a multi-step interactive environment, we show that increasing structural scaffolding -- from unstructured to fully scaffolded -- \textbf{systematically reduces output variance and failure rates under a fixed model architecture}. Our results indicate that many observed failure modes, such as context drift and inconsistent constraint adherence, arise from under-specified control rather than insufficient capability. This work provides an empirical basis for treating inference-time control as a first-class abstraction, opening new directions for designing and evaluating LLM systems beyond scaling alone.

This discussion argues that sequential statistical inference can naturally contribute to LLM trustworthiness. In deployment, LLM systems are queried repeatedly, conditioned on evolving contexts, and incorporate user or tool feedback, and may exhibit behavioral shifts after model updates or distribution changes. The discussion is organized around three tasks: representation, modeling LLM interactions as dependent stochastic processes rather than isolated prompt--response pairs; validity, developing uncertainty guarantees that remain meaningful under dependence, repeated use, and adaptation; and monitoring, using sequential alarms and change-point detection to identify shifts in calibration, hallucination rates, refusal behavior, fairness, or other task-relevant properties. This perspective complements recent surveys by viewing trustworthy LLM deployment as a problem of statistical process control.

Large language models are increasingly deployed as agents, but reliable agentic behavior requires more than next-token prediction. At inference time, it is preferred that an agent can decide whether to proceed with its current reasoning, defer to a stronger model, request additional information, invoke external tools, or abstain under the given setup. Existing approaches address these decisions through prompt-level routing, external orchestration, or task-specific fine-tuning, which primarily rely on input-side signals, and are often costly and difficult to maintain as model backbones evolve. We ask whether such control decisions can be inferred directly from a model's latent generation process. We introduce Multi-Head Latent Control, a lightweight layer that reads hidden-state trajectories from a frozen LLM or VLM to produce deployment-time control signals. A Capability Head predicts whether the current model can solve the instance or should defer to a stronger collaborator, while a Resolution Head predicts appropriate resolution decision Clarification, Tool Use, Abstention, or Direct Answering. Both heads are trained only on latent traces from the same frozen LLM backbone, enabling post hoc adaptation without modifying the model. Across language and vision-language settings, Multi-Head Latent Control consistently improves the quality-cost tradeoff of multi-model systems, enabling early handoff from partial generations and more accurate intervention decisions. In routed execution (small + large model), it reduces large-model usage by up to 90.7 percent on AndroidWorld and 27-53 percent on average across benchmarks, while retaining most of large-model performance. Additionally, the learned control signals improve tool-use decision quality, yielding up to +158 percent relative score gain and 65.5 percent fewer missed-required tool calls.