Physically-Informed Fuzzy Clustering of Vertical Sounding Ionograms

Most data-driven ionospheric forecasting models operate on gridded products, which do not preserve the time-varying sampling structure of satellite-based sensing. We instead model the ionosphere as a dynamic graph over ionospheric pierce points (IPPs), with connectivity that evolves as satellite positions change. Because satellite trajectories are predictable, the graph topology over the forecast horizon can be constructed in advance. We exploit this property to condition forecasts on the future graph structure, which we term ephemeris conditioning. This enables prediction on lines of sight that appear only in the forecast horizon. We evaluate our framework on multi-GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) data from a co-located receiver pair in Singapore spanning January 2023 through April 2025. The task is to forecast Rate of TEC Index (ROTI)-defined irregularities at 5-minute cadence up to 2 hours ahead as binary probabilistic classification per node. The resulting model, IonoDGNN, achieves a Brier Skill Score (BSS) of 0.49 and a precision-recall area under the curve (PR-AUC) of 0.75, improving over persistence by 35% in BSS and 52% in PR-AUC, with larger gains at longer lead times. Ablations confirm that graph structure and ephemeris conditioning each contribute meaningfully, with conditioning proving essential for satellites that rise during the forecast horizon (receiver operating characteristic AUC: 0.95 vs.\ 0.52 without). Under simulated coverage dropout, the model retains predictive skill on affected nodes through spatial message passing from observed neighbors. These results suggest that dynamic graph forecasting on evolving lines of sight is a viable alternative to grid-based representations for ionospheric irregularity forecasting. The model and evaluation code will be released upon publication.

Radio-frequency (RF) monitoring is essential for space domain awareness, but it often generates large, variable, and sparsely populated datasets with few labels. These observations can capture satellites, space debris, and the ionospheric background, yet interpreting them typically requires specialized subject-matter expertise. Supervised deep learning methods can perform well on labeled RF data, but they require many annotated examples and may need careful retraining as RF conditions change. Semi-supervised approaches offer a practical alternative for limited-data settings by using unlabeled observations to reveal latent patterns that experts can interpret. In this paper, we present a semi-supervised RF detection and classification workflow for satellite monitoring that combines Non-negative Matrix Factorization with automatic model determination (NMFk), expert-guided cluster interpretation, and classifier-based prediction. We first represent RF observations as a non-negative feature matrix and apply NMFk to estimate the number of clusters that best captures patterns in the unlabeled data. Subject-matter experts then assign physical meaning to the resulting clusters, including satellite detections, ionospheric environmental conditions, and other RF event categories. Finally, we train a classifier on these interpreted clusters to evaluate performance on a test set and categorize future observations. This pipeline reduces reliance on large pre-labeled datasets by pairing unsupervised factorization with expert interpretation, enabling an interpretable and transferable methodology for detecting, observing, and classifying behavior in RF data.

Modern online mass spectrometry generates multi-terabyte data streams critical for understanding Earth's environmental systems. However, extracting actionable chemical insights from these repositories is impeded by a computational bottleneck: existing clustering methods force a compromise among scalability, metric flexibility, and algorithmic stability. Here, we introduce Flexible Adaptive Stable Clustering (FASC), a dynamical systems framework that resolves these constraints by architecturally decoupling the similarity kernel from rigorous optimization logic. Unlike legacy heuristics that suffer from stochastic drift and algorithmic blending, FASC employs a Density-Augmented Similarity Selection rule and geometric constraints to guarantee deterministic, order-independent convergence. After validating FASC on canonical machine-learning ground truths (achieving >99.5% cluster purity and 0.99 Adjusted Rand Index), we deployed the framework on 25 million mass spectra of atmospheric aerosols. Demonstrating strictly linear empirical runtime scaling (O(N)), FASC autonomously mapped atmospheric aging pathways of secondary inorganic aerosols while isolating ultra-rare industrial tracers (<0.2% abundance), providing a scalable infrastructure for mining environmental big data.