KellyBench: A Benchmark for Long-Horizon Sequential Decision Making

Language model agents are becoming proficient executors at isolated, short-horizon tasks such as software engineering and customer service. Yet real-world challenges require a combination of sophisticated skills that remain largely untested in agents: (1) navigating long horizons amid uncertainty; (2) acquiring information in noisy environments; (3) adapting to a changing world; (4) orchestrating multiple moving parts toward a coherent goal. We introduce CEO-Bench, which evaluates these capabilities together by simulating a representative real-world task: operating a startup for 500 days. An agent manages pricing, marketing, budgeting, and many other aspects of a fictional company through a programmable Python interface, operating in the same environment and facing the same challenges as a human CEO. Success demands analyzing noisy, interconnected business databases, translating signals into sound strategy, and coordinating many decisions with programming. The strongest agents write sophisticated code that simulates customer cohorts to forecast future cash and mines negotiation history to uncover hidden customer preferences. Even so, most state-of-the-art models struggle in this environment. Only Claude Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5 finish above the $1M starting balance, and neither consistently turns a profit. CEO-Bench takes a first step toward measuring the intelligence required to drive sustained, adaptive progress over time.

We introduce WC2026-Agents, a benchmark and dataset for evaluating large language models (LLMs) as autonomous forecasting agents on real, future events. For every one of the 104 matches of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, four frontier models -- Claude Opus 4.8, ChatGPT (GPT-5.5, high reasoning), Gemini 3.1 Pro, and Grok (Expert Mode) -- ran an identical search-act-reflect loop: gather evidence with a web tool, commit to a 1X2 (team-A win / draw / team-B win) distribution and a virtual 100-USD bet, and, after the match, reflect given only the final score. Because every match kicked off after the models' training cutoffs, the benchmark is contamination-free by construction. Crucially, we pair the four agents with a fifth competitor drawn from the same information environment -- the pre-match betting market -- collected as per-match 1X2 odds, giving an economically grounded baseline and letting us score not just what an agent predicts but what it does with money. The release contains 416 forecasts and 414 reflections with verbatim reasoning, ground truth (including penalty shootouts), odds, and a reproducible evaluation suite. A reference evaluation surfaces findings that raw accuracy hides: the four agents issue an identical top pick in 92% of matches and none beats the market's Brier score; indeed, a naive flat stake on the market favorite out-earns all four agents. Yet the agents diverge sharply as decision-makers: betting return-on-investment ranges from -18% to +10%, fading the market is unprofitable for all four, the share of forecasts that cite the market ranges from 12% to 100%, and self-reported error rates on wrong picks range from 36% to 86%. The benchmark thus measures calibration, decision quality, and self-knowledge -- axes on which frontier models differ even when their predictions do not. Data and code: https://github.com/graphuofm/FIFA2026LLM

AI agent research spans a wide spectrum: from RL agents that learn from scratch to foundation model agents that leverage pre-trained knowledge, yet no unified benchmark enables fair comparison across these approaches. We present Agentick, a benchmark for sequential decision-making agents designed to evaluate RL, LLM, VLM, hybrid, and human agents on common ground and to power research on the fundamental challenges of sequential decision-making. Agentick provides 37 procedurally generated tasks across six capability categories, four difficulty levels, and five observation modalities, all exposed through a single Gymnasium-compatible interface. The benchmark ships with a Coding API, oracle reference policies for all tasks, pre-built SFT datasets, a composable agent harness, and a live leaderboard. An evaluation spanning 27 configurations and over 90,000 episodes reveals that no single approach dominates: GPT-5 mini leads overall at 0.309 oracle-normalized score while PPO dominates planning and multi-agent tasks; the reasoning harness multiplies LLM performance by 3-10x; and ASCII observations consistently outperform natural language. These findings highlight the substantial room for improvement that remains across all agent paradigms. Agentick's capability-decomposed, multi-modal design provides the empirical infrastructure needed to drive progress toward general autonomous agents, both as an evaluation framework and as a training ground for RL post-training of foundation models in truly sequential environments.