Abstract
Accurate state estimation of nonlinear dynamical systems is fundamental to modern aerospace operations across air, sea, and space domains. Online tracking of adversarial unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is especially challenging due to agile nonlinear motion, noisy and sparse sensor measurements, and unknown control inputs; conditions that violate key assumptions of classical Kalman filter variants and degrade estimation performance. Neural networks (NNs) can learn complex nonlinear relationships from data, but lack principled uncertainty quantification, which is critical for state estimation tasks where confidence bounds drive downstream decisions. We address this with Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs), which model uncertainty through distributions over network weights and produce predictive means and uncertainties via Monte Carlo sampling. Building on this, we propose the Bayesian Neural Kalman Filter (BNKF): a hybrid framework coupling a trained BNN with a Kalman correction step for robust online UAV state estimation. Unlike related neural Kalman approaches, BNKF produces full state predictions and incorporates Bayesian uncertainty directly into covariance propagation, improving robustness under high noise conditions. We evaluate BNKF under varying radar noise levels and sampling rates using synthetic nonlinear UAV flight data. Five fold cross validation demonstrates that BNKF outperforms Extended and Unscented Kalman Filters in accuracy, precision, and truth containment under degraded sensing. An ensemble variant (BNKFe) further improves precision in high-noise edge cases at a slight accuracy tradeoff. Runtime analysis confirms minimal inference overhead, supporting real-time deployment feasibility.
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May 18, 2026eess.SP
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in dynamic environments face telemetry outages, structural vibrations, and regime-dependent noise that invalidate the stationary covariance assumptions of classical Kalman filters. The Sage-Husa Kalman Filter (SHKF) estimates noise statistics online, but its reliance on a static, scalar forgetting factor forces a strict compromise between steady-state stability and transient responsiveness. We introduce the N-Deep Recurrent Sage-Husa Filter (NDR-SHKF), which replaces this scalar parameter with a vector-valued memory attenuation policy learned by a hierarchical recurrent network operating on whitened innovation sequences. A bifurcated architecture routes shallow recurrent states to capture instantaneous sensor anomalies and deep states to encode sustained dynamic trends, while an auxiliary reconstruction objective prevents feature collapse. The complete filter, including recursive covariance updates, is trained end-to-end via backpropagation through time to directly minimize state estimation error. Evaluations on topologically distinct chaotic attractors demonstrate cross-domain generalization, outperforming purely data-driven baselines that diverge under out-of-distribution dynamics. Furthermore, evaluations on recorded real-world UAV flight datasets validate the framework's practical viability, demonstrating its capacity to bridge transitions into proprioceptive dead reckoning and outperform classical adaptive estimators during sensor outages.
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Robust state estimation is central to robotic autonomy, yet classical Kalman filters struggle with frequency-dependent disturbances and model mismatch such as sensor vibrations, electromagnetic interference, and periodic noise. Although Deep Kalman Filter (DKF) variants extend the Extended Kalman Filtering (EKF) framework by learning latent transitions, they lack explicit mechanisms to suppress band-limited noise components that typically corrupt sensor measurements in real-world scenarios. We introduce the Frequency-Weighted Neural Kalman Filter (FW-NKF), a unified hybrid approach that embeds a causal spectral-shaping operator into the Kalman measurement residual and jointly learns observation, and transition networks. By adapting both the filter spectrum and the latent state representation, FW-NKF attenuates the noise-dominated frequency bands while capturing complex residual structures. We conduct extensive experiments on four heterogeneous benchmarks, including chaotic systems such as multi-dimensional Lorenz systems and full-body inertial pose estimation, and find a reduction in localization error of up to 10% as well as marked improvements in orientation accuracy. Our ablation studies confirm that frequency weighting and deep latent-state modeling contribute to overall performance.
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