Organizations: University of Texas at Dallas · George Mason University · UT Southwestern Medical Center
Abstract
``How long can I live and remain free of cancer?'' is often the first question a patient asks after receiving a cancer diagnosis and treatment. Accurate survival prediction helps alleviate psychological distress and supports risk stratification and personalized treatment planning. Recent survival prediction frameworks have shown strong performance using computed tomography (CT) images. However, variations in imaging acquisition introduce out-of-distribution (OOD) samples caused by covariate shifts that undermine model reliability. Despite this challenge, to our knowledge, no existing benchmark systematically studies OOD detection in cancer survival prediction. To address this gap, we introduce the Cancer sURvival bEnchmark for OOD Detection (CURE-OOD), the first benchmark for systematically evaluating OOD detection in survival prediction under controlled acquisition-induced distribution shifts. CURE-OOD defines scanner-parameter-based training, in-distribution (ID), and OOD test splits across four survival prediction tasks. Our experiments show that covariate shifts notably reduce survival prediction performance. It also shows that mainstream classification-oriented OOD detectors can fail in survival prediction. Finally, we include HazardDev as a simple survival-aware reference baseline for OOD detection. CURE-OOD enables systematic analysis of how distribution shifts affect both downstream survival performance and OOD detectability.
Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is essential for reliable deployment of deep learning systems, yet the majority of existing methods are evaluated on small, visually homogeneous benchmarks. In this work, we study six OOD detection methods spanning post-hoc scoring, auxiliary objectives, energy-based models, and constrained optimization on the Plant Pathology 2021 dataset, a fine-grained task with natural distribution shifts. Energy-based fine-tuning performs best across OOD settings, improving detection over the softmax baseline while preserving in-distribution accuracy. Analysis shows these gains stem from both a restructuring of the embedding space alongside calibration of the scoring function. We further document practical training instabilities that arise when scaling constrained optimization methods to moderate-sized datasets, findings that are largely absent from existing literature. Our results demonstrate that principled OOD detection is achievable on real-world domain-specific data and that benchmark evaluations alone may not capture the challenges that emerge in practice.
Foundation models provide highly descriptive representations for medical images, yet their reliability degrades under distribution shifts arising from changes in patients, devices, or acquisition conditions. Reliable out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is therefore essential for safe deployment. Recent post-hoc detectors efficiently exploit frozen embeddings (e.g., kNN), whereas reconstruction-based OOD detection in latent feature space has seen limited adoption due to inconsistent performance. In this work, we show that the limitation of reconstruction-based methods in latent space does not stem from poor reconstruction quality, but from how reconstruction errors are scored. Standard L2 residual norms collapse the anisotropic residual structure, thereby suppressing informative deviations. To address this limitation, we introduce MaRS (Mahalanobis Residual Scoring), a label-free OOD detector that learns an in-distribution manifold using a lightweight autoencoder and measures deviation via a Mahalanobis distance on reconstruction residuals, yielding variance-aware OOD scores. Across three imaging modalities, multiple types of distribution shift, and different model families and scales, MaRS outperforms established confidence-, distance-, and reconstruction-based baselines, while remaining fully post-hoc and lightweight. The code is available at https://github.com/francescodisalvo05/mars.
Francesco Di Salvo, Sebastian Doerrich, Christian Ledig
Accurate prognostication and risk estimation are essential for guiding clinical decision-making and optimizing patient management. While radiologist-assessed features from CT scans provide valuable indicators of disease severity and outcomes, interpreting such images requires expert knowledge, and translating rich visual information into textual summaries inevitably leads to information loss. In this work, we propose a vision-language framework for 3D CT image understanding that leverages large-scale open-sourced CT images paired with radiology reports through visual instruction tuning. This pre-training enables the model to learn clinically meaningful visual-textual representations, which can then be adapted to downstream survival prediction tasks. By incorporating a survival prediction head on top of the pre-trained model, our approach improves survival prediction from CT images and clinical data while generating clinically meaningful language responses to predefined questions. Experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms baseline methods in survival prediction, particularly, when clinical data alone is less predictive. The code will be released upon acceptance.