Barriers to Counterfactual Credit Attribution for Autoregressive Models

As AI generative models evolve at unprecedented speed, image attribution has become a moving target. New diffusion, adversarial and autoregressive generators appear almost monthly, making existing watermark, classifier and inversion methods obsolete upon release. The core problem lies not in model recognition, but in the inability to adapt attribution itself. We introduce IncreFA, a framework that redefines attribution as a structured incremental learning problem, allowing the system to learn continuously as new generative models emerge. IncreFA departs from conventional incremental learning by exploiting the hierarchical relationships among generative architectures and coupling them with continual adaptation. It integrates two mutually reinforcing mechanisms: (1) Hierarchical Constraints, which encode architectural hierarchies through learnable orthogonal priors to disentangle family-level invariants from model-specific idiosyncrasies; and (2) a Latent Memory Bank, which replays compact latent exemplars and mixes them to generate pseudo-unseen samples, stabilising representation drift and enhancing open-set awareness. On the newly constructed Incremental Attribution Benchmark (IABench) covering 28 generative models released between 2022 and 2025, IncreFA achieves state-of-the-art attribution accuracy and 98.93% unseen detection under a temporally ordered open-set protocol. Code will be available at https://github.com/Ant0ny44/IncreFA.

Generative models for counterfactual outcomes have great potential to support decision-making under complex interventions, but existing approaches are limited by unstable estimation, poor generalization across environments, and bias from nuisance model misspecification. We introduce ADIGen, a framework for automatic, debiased, and invariant counterfactual generation under general interventions, including high-dimensional interventions and outcomes. ADIGen combines Riesz regression to avoid unstable density-ratio estimation, causal invariance to improve generalization under distribution shift, and orthogonal statistical learning to obtain doubly robust guarantees against nuisance model misspecification. We provide excess-risk bounds showing that ADIGen controls counterfactual risk under general interventions, with a product-bias nuisance remainder and an invariant risk bound across environments.

Per-token counterfactual credit estimation asks which token in a language-model rollout caused the final answer to be right or wrong: cut the transcript at a pivot, substitute an alternative token, replay continuations, and compare outcomes. Published methods re-feed the transcript prefix as a fresh prompt, assuming this reproduces the state the model passed through during generation. We measure what that assumption costs on a stock inference engine, with a three-pass design: continuations resumed from the verified decode-time KV state, an identical second exact pass (a replica noise floor), and a re-feed pass. Across six configurations and three models (including a GRPO-trained checkpoint), at low-margin decision tokens, re-feeding changes the credit estimate at rates 14-28 percentage points above the replica floor (7-21pp under a treatment-independent conditioning; problem-clustered t = 2.9-6.4). Most changes are zero-boundary crossings of the quantized estimator rather than polarity reversals, and the perturbation is consistent with mean-zero, so averaged quantities are largely safe; but selection is not: a critical-token set chosen by thresholding $|\hat{A}_t|$ under re-feed overlaps the exact-resume selection at Jaccard 0.34-0.90, versus a 0.63-0.96 replica ceiling. A causal confirmation closes the loop: under vLLM's batch-invariant kernels all three passes are identical on every measured channel, with both disagreement rates exactly zero. Replica passes themselves disagree on 9-23% of eligible estimates: single-sample credit measurements at decision tokens are unreliable under any replay. Settings were fixed in advance; exact-pass cache hits in the second campaign are instrumented (100% hit rate, 3,434 pivots); total compute was under 10 USD. We recommend that counterfactual credit studies resume decoder state or use batch-invariant kernels, and report a replica floor.