Causal Inferences

Ask about this topic

Momentum

14 papers in the last four weeks, up 40% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28
View on map

Latest papers 144

All topics
CardsList

  1. ProximalFM: Amortized Proximal Causal Inference under Hidden Confounding

    Oct 6, 2026Christophe Muller, Ayub Kharel, Alex Luedtke +6Causal Inferences

    University of Oxford · Harvard University · University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign +5

  2. Proximal Balancing for Causal Effect Estimation under Unmeasured Confounding

    Sep 30, 2026Yonghan JungCausal InferencesLatent Confounders

    School of Information Sciences University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

  3. Target-Dependent Limits of Causal Repair: A Leading-Log Frontier in a Gaussian Model

    Sep 30, 2026Qinchuan Cheng, Jiaqi Liu, Ruixuan XieCausal InferencesRepair

    Xi’an Jiaotong University · Sichuan University · Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

  4. CIDER-FM: Foundation Models for Causal Inference from Diverse Experimental Regimes

    Sep 30, 2026Yuche Gao, Arik Reuter, Siyuan Guo +3Causal InferencesCausal Discovery Methods

    University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom · Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems, Tübingen, Germany · Prior Labs +3

  5. Where MLLMs Fail and Why: Causal Task Decomposition for Capability Failure Diagnosis

    Sep 30, 2026Xia Hu, Brian Potetz, Chun-Ta Lu +6Large Language Models FailLatent Failure Patterns

    Google DeepMind · Google Research · Stanford University

  6. Conditional Tensor Diffusion: Distributional Counterfactual Learning and Inference

    Sep 22, 2026Xinbing Kong, Zeyu Li, Junfan Mao +1Causal InferencesConditional Distribution

    Southeast University · University of Science and Technology of China

  7. Causal Bayesian Optimization: Foundations, Methods, and Applications

    Sep 21, 2026Chenfeng Huang, Thuy T. Le, Zixuan Ma +1Bayesian OptimizationCausal Inferences

    Department of Statistics & Data Science University of California, Los Angeles · Department of Mathematics and Statistics California State University, Long Beach · Department of Mathematics North Carolina State University

  8. Exponential Family Synthetic Controls

    Sep 21, 2026Hector Rodriguez-Deniz, David M. BleiCausal InferencesExponential Family

    Data Science Institute Columbia University New York, NY 10027, USA · Department of Computer Science and Department of Statistics Columbia University New York, NY 10027, USA

  9. FCx: An algorithm for finding Feasible Counterfactual Explanations

    Sep 16, 2026Kleopatra Markou, Vana Kalogeraki, Dimitrios GunopulosCounterfactual ExplanationCounterfactuals

    National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Department of Informatics and Telecommunications, Greece · Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of Informatics, Greece

  10. Information Set Emulation: Causal Certificates for AI Derived EHR Features

    Sep 15, 2026Takes Fujita, Nobutaka HattoriElectronic Health RecordsCausal Inferences

    VRI · Department of Neurology, Juntendo University School of Medicine

  11. When AI Generates Covariates: Causal Typing and Estimand Drift in Sequential Experiments

    Sep 15, 2026Takes Fujita, Nobutaka HattoriCausal InferencesCovariates

    VRI · Department of Neurology, Juntendo University School of Medicine

  12. Calibrating Interpretability Instruments Before Trusting Their Verdicts

    Sep 13, 2026Orion Reblitz-RichardsonInterpretabilityCausal Intervention

    Distiller Labs

  13. Generative Marketing Mix Modeling: A Causal Inference Framework Linking GEO and GEM to Business Impact

    Sep 12, 2026Masahiro Kato, Daiki Honma, Taka KatoSales LeadCausal Inferences

    The University of Tokyo and Mizuho-DL Financial Technology Co., Ltd. · NP-hard

  14. Distribution-aware Language Neuron Identification in Multilingual Large Language Models

    Sep 11, 2026Minjun Kim, Inho Won, Junghun Yuk +3Multilingual Language ModelsLanguage Modeling

    KAIST · KAIST InnoCORE PRISM-AI Center

  15. CausalVerify: An Execution-Grounded Benchmark for LLM Causal Inference Workflows

    Sep 7, 2026Yonghong Zhang, Ricardo Correia, Isabel M. Parra +1Causal InferencesCode Generation

    Department of Finance Universidad Autónoma de Madrid Madrid, Spain · Spanish National Research Council (CSIC) Madrid, Spain

  16. Hardware-Aware FP4 FlashAttention-4

    Sep 3, 2026Robert HuBlock Sparse Flash AttentionCausal Inferences

    GRAPHCORE RESEARCH

  17. Portable Causal Fairness Across Synthetic Data Generator Families

    Sep 2, 2026Steven Golob, Sikha Pentyala, Martine De CockAlgorithmic FairnessSynthetic Data

    University of Washington Tacoma

  18. Causal Foundation Models

    Sep 2, 2026Christopher Stith, Hossein Rahmani, Jesse C. CresswellCausal InferencesFoundation Model

    Layer 6 AI, Toronto, Canada · TD Bank Group, Toronto, Canada

  19. Exploring Sparse Autoencoders in Text-Based Causal Confounding Adjustment

    Sep 1, 2026Mian Zhong, Katherine A. Keith, Anjalie FieldLatent ConfoundersCausal Inferences

    Johns Hopkins University · Williams College / Cohere · Cohere

  20. When Prediction Error Is Not Enough: Evaluating Nuisance-Function Prediction for Causal Estimation

    Aug 30, 2026Cong CaoCausal InferencesPrediction Error

    Department of Biostatistics, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520, USA

  21. Meteorology-driven Causal Nowcasting of Fugitive Landfill Emissions from Measured Coupling Timescales

    Aug 14, 2026Timothy C. Pearce, David J. T. Smith, Alec Dobney +1Atmospheric DynamicsPrecipitation Nowcasting

    Biomedical Engineering Research Group, School of Engineering, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom. · Environmental Hazards and Emergency Department, UKHSA, Nottingham, United Kingdom.

  22. Discovering Efficient and Explainable Communication Topologies for LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems via Causal Inference

    Aug 13, 2026Junzhi Li, Peng He, Qirui Ji +3Network TopologyCommunication Topologies

    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences · National Key Laboratory of Space Integrated Information System, Institute of Software, Chinese Academy of Sciences · Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications

  23. Causal inference for group-contaminated structured outcomes: observable quotients, lossless reduction and exact randomization inference

    Aug 12, 2026Usef Faghihi, Amir SakiCausal InferencesPartial Observability

    D´epartement de math´ematiques et d’informatique Universit´e du Qu´ebec `a Trois-Rivi`eres Trois-Rivi`eres, Qu´ebec, Canada

  24. Conditional Independence Tests for Constraint-Based Causal Discovery: A Survey

    Aug 11, 2026Pavel Averin, Theodoros Moysiadis, Ioannis KatakisConditional IndependenceCausal Discovery Methods

    Department of Computer Science School of Sciences and Engineering University of Nicosia 2417, Nicosia, Cyprus

  25. From Prediction to Incrementality: Causal Optimization for Large-Scale Targeting and Recommendation

    Aug 10, 2026Changshuai Wei, John Bencina, Phuc Nguyen +2Causal InferencesHeterogeneous Treatment Effects

    LinkedIn · Seattle, USA · Sunnyvale, USA

  26. A Distribution Mapping Approach to Counterfactually Fair Reinforcement Learning

    Aug 9, 2026Jianhan Zhang, Jitao Wang, John D. Piette +3Counterfactual LearningDistributional Reinforcement Learning

    University of Michigan · LSE

  27. Causal State-Space Model for Causal Inference: Estimating Longitudinal Individual Treatment Effects

    Aug 8, 2026Abisoye Abidakun, Mingjun Zhong, Georgios LeontidisCausal InferencesHeterogeneous Treatment Effects

    Department of Computing Science, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK · UiT The Arctic University of Norway

  28. A Unified Causal Inference Framework for the Desirability of Outcome Ranking Paradigm in Benefit-Risk Evaluation

    Aug 5, 2026Yuan Feng, Shiyu Shu, Yixin Fang +4Heterogeneous Treatment EffectsCausal Inferences

    Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, The George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA · The Biostatistics Center, The George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA · AbbVie Inc., USA

  29. Causal Inference with Unstructured Outcomes

    Aug 4, 2026Kevin Christian Wibisono, Yixin WangCausal InferencesCovariates

    Department of Statistics University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

  30. Causal Inference with Unstructured Treatments

    Aug 1, 2026Kevin Christian Wibisono, Yixin WangCausal InferencesHeterogeneous Treatment Effects

    Department of Statistics University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

  31. Eco3S: Complex Socio-Economic System Simulation via Agent-Based Models

    Jul 29, 2026Shaopeng Wei, Yufei Cheng, Wenxi Sun +3Agent-Based ModelEcosystems

    School of Business, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China · School of Computing and Artificial Intelligence, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu 611130, China · Information Media Center, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima 739-8511, Japan +1

  32. DoTime: A Synthetic Benchmark Generator for Interventional and Counterfactual Time Series

    Jul 29, 2026Dennis Thumm, Billy Tim Anthony, Ying ChenCausal InferencesSynthetic Benchmark

    National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore

  33. The Confounder Trap: Treatment-Encoding Representations in Causal Inference with Text

    Jul 28, 2026Marie Neubrander, Graham Tierney, Alexander VolfovskyLatent ConfoundersCausal Inferences

    Department of Statistical Science Duke University Durham, NC, 27705

  34. Adversarial Test-Hardening for AI-Written Code: An Instrument Autopsy and a Pre-Registered Causal Estimate of the Critic Loop

    Jul 25, 2026Jeff OttersonCode QualityAdversarial Evaluation

    W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University

  35. CausalSmith: A Formally Grounded, Self-Improving Agentic Framework for Automated Research in Causal Inference

    Jul 24, 2026Jiyuan Tan, Vasilis SyrgkanisCausal InferencesResearch Automation

  36. Interventional Score Geometry for Causal Inference

    Jul 24, 2026Mojtaba EslamiCausal InferencesScores

    Post-doctoral Researcher, University of Calgary.

  37. Bounding the Causal Impact of ML-assisted Decision-Making via Counterfactual Correctness

    Jul 23, 2026Jonathan Zhang, Erik Skalnes, Jacob Chen +1Causal InferencesCounterfactual Generation

    Computer Science Dept., Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA

  38. Are Single-Token Sparse Autoencoder Features Causally Necessary? Layer-Depth and SAE-Family Effects

    Jul 22, 2026Seonglae Cho, Zekun Wu, Kleyton Da Costa +3Sparse Autoencoder FeaturesModel Activations

    Holistic AI · University College London

  39. Data-Poisoning Audits for Causal Effect Estimation

    Jul 22, 2026Kwangho KimCausal InferencesModel Auditing

    Department of Statistics, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea

  40. Text Template Tokens Are Implicit Semantic Registers in Diffusion Transformers

    Jul 21, 2026Maohua Li, Qirui Li, Yanke Zhou +10Diffusion TransformersText-To-Image Diffusion Models

    Nanjing University · Alibaba Group · Zhejiang University

  41. Vector Search As Nearest Neighbor Matching: RAG-based Policy Learning in Causal Inference

    Jul 20, 2026Masahiro Kato, Taka KatoCausal InferencesVector Database

    ∗The University of Tokyo. · †NP-hard Inc.

  42. Causal Inference for Sequential Settings under Interference and Latent Confounding

    Jul 16, 2026Phevos Paschalidis, Constantinos Daskalakis, Devavrat ShahCausal InferencesLatent Confounders

    EECS, LIDS, CSAIL · MIT · EECS, CSAIL +1

  43. PUe: Biased Positive-Unlabeled Learning Enhancement by Causal Inference

    Jul 15, 2026Xutao Wang, Hanting Chen, Tianyu Guo +1Positive--Unlabeled LearningImportance Weighting

    Huawei Noah’s Ark Lab

  44. Demonstration of the common dual-channel feature decoupling characteristic of front-door mediation causal inference methods in whole-slice image classification

    Jul 14, 2026Zhirui Zhang, Tianhang Nan, Yong Ding +3Multiple Instance LearningDigital Pathology

    College of Medicine and Biological Information Engineering, Northeastern University, China

  45. Partial Identification with Multiple Nonlinear Measurements of a Latent Regressor

    Jul 13, 2026Burhan Ogut, Michelle YinCovariatesCausal Inferences

    American Institutes for Research. · Northwestern University, School of Education and Social Policy.

  46. The Spectral Structure of Latent Treatment Effects

    Jul 12, 2026Hamza Virk, Bijan Mazaheri, Yihren WuHeterogeneous Treatment EffectsLatent Confounders

    1Dartmouth College · 2Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard · 3Hofstra University

  47. Workload-Preserving Differentially Private Synthetic Data for Causal Inference via Maximum-Entropy Calibration

    Jul 9, 2026Amir Asiaee, Kaveh AryanCausal InferencesSynthetic Data

    Department of Biostatistics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, USA · Department of Informatics, King’s College London, London, UK

  48. Geometric Causal Models

    Jul 6, 2026Eli N. Weinstein, David M. BleiCausal InferencesRotation Equivariance

    Department of Chemistry, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, DK. · Departments of Statistics and Computer Science, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.

  49. Profit-Based Counterfactual Explanations for Product Improvement: A Case Study of Manga Sales in Japan

    Jul 2, 2026Keita Kinjo, Takeshi EbinaCounterfactual ExplanationShapley Additive Explanations

    Faculty of Business Studies, Kyoritsu Women’s University, 2-2-1, Hitotsubashi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 101-8437, Japan · School of Commerce, Meiji University, 1-1, Kanda-surugadai, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 101-8301, Japan

  50. CausalMix: Data Mixture as Causal Inference for Language Model Training

    Jul 1, 2026Zinan Tang, Yukun Zhang, Shaomian Zheng +6Causal InferencesCausal

    Tsinghua University · Ant Group · Renmin University of China

  51. Understanding Guest Preferences and Optimizing Two-sided Marketplaces: Airbnb as an Example

    Jul 1, 2026Yufei Wu, Daniel SchmiererAirbnbPreference Alignment Learning

    Airbnb, Inc. San Francisco, California, USA

  52. Estimating Supply Incrementality in Two-sided Marketplaces: A Causal Machine Learning Approach

    Jun 30, 2026Yufei Wu, Daniel Schmierer, Dan ZylberglejdMatching MarketsCausal Inferences

    Airbnb, Inc. San Francisco, California, USA

  53. Hierarchical Clustering As a Novel Solution to the Notorious Multicollinearity Problem in Observational Causal Inference

    Jun 30, 2026Yufei Wu, Zhiying Gu, Alex Deng +2Causal InferencesClustering

    Airbnb, Inc. San Francisco, California, USA

  54. Doubly Robust Adaptive Conformal Inference for Causal Effects Under Temporal Dependence

    Jun 29, 2026Andreas Koukorinis, Ricardo SilvaConformal InferenceCausal Inferences

    Department of Computer Science University College London · Department of Statistical Science University College London

  55. A causal modeling perspective on decision theory

    Jun 29, 2026Arvid SjölanderCausal ModelingDecisions

    Karolinska Institutet

  56. Lifted Causal Inference

    Jun 26, 2026Malte Luttermann, Tanya Braun, Ralf Möller +1Causal GraphCausal Inferences

    Institute for Humanities-Centered Artificial Intelligence, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany. · German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI), Lübeck, Germany. · Data Science Group, University of Münster, Münster, Germany.

  57. An Introduction to Causal Reinforcement Learning

    Jun 23, 2026Elias Bareinboim, Junzhe Zhang, Sanghack LeeCausal InferencesCounterfactual Learning

    Department of Computer Science Columbia University New York, USA · Graduate School of Data Science Seoul National University Seoul, Republic of Korea

  58. Two Layers of Instability in Causal Estimation

    Jun 19, 2026Alexis BellotCausal InferencesInstability

    Research conducted independently. Preprint.

  59. Wasserstein Policy Learning for Distributional Outcomes

    Jun 17, 2026Yiyan Huang, Cheuk Hang Leung, Qi Wu +1Wasserstein DistanceCausal Inferences

    School of Statistics and Data Science & Institute of Big Data Research, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai, China

  60. Estimating the Effect of Timing on Coupon Effectiveness

    Jun 17, 2026Deddy JobsonSales LeadCausal Inferences

    Mercari, Inc., Japan