The Model Knows, the Decoder Finds: Future Value Guided Particle Power Sampling

Sampling from the sequence-level power distribution $p^α$ elicits RL-level reasoning from base language models without any parameter updates, but the standard Metropolis--Hastings (MH), a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, is both expensive and slow-mixing. We trace both to a structural mismatch: $p^α$ mainly departs from $p$ at a sparse, spatially clustered set of high-entropy decision points, yet MH proposes resampling positions uniformly along the prefix -- wasting compute on near-degenerate conditionals while under-mixing precisely where modes diverge. We propose Entropy-Guided Power Sampling (EGPS), a training-free and verifier-free sampler that re-derives its proposal from token-level entropy already in the forward pass. EGPS skips deterministic blocks, localizes each MCMC move to a high-entropy neighborhood, and applies Multiple-Try Metropolis at decision points -- making sampling cost scale with \emph{entropy mass rather than sequence length}. On Qwen2.5-Math-7B, EGPS reaches best or tied-best accuracy on all three benchmarks (MATH500 $75.8\%$, HumanEval $62.2\%$, GPQA $42.4\%$) at up to a $12.6\times$ wall-clock speedup over the MH baseline.

Inference-time power sampling via Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) can substantially improve large language model (LLM) reasoning without requiring post-training. However, many existing SMC approaches rely on equal-weight resampling, which can aggressively prune low-weight trajectories, discarding potentially correct reasoning paths and degrading the genealogical diversity of the search space. To address this, we introduce Chopthin-Consensus Power Sampling (CCPS). Our method applies the Chopthin resampler to LLM decoding: rather than equalizing weights and forcing unnecessary particle duplication, it enforces an upper bound on the ratio between the largest and smallest weights and carries the unequal weights forward. This targeted intervention preserves a richer set of distinct reasoning paths, keeps the weighted SMC approximation unchanged in conditional expectation, and guarantees a lower bound on the post-resampling effective sample size (ESS). To fully exploit this enriched population, we employ a semantic-majority selection mechanism that merges token-identical final trajectories, clusters semantically equivalent answers, and returns the answer supported by the largest number of distinct trajectories. Evaluating across three open-weight models and five reasoning benchmarks, we show that Chopthin increases oracle coverage in 13 of 15 settings. Combined with semantic-majority selection, CCPS matches or exceeds the final-answer accuracy of the Power-SMC baseline in 14 of 15 settings, delivering absolute gains of up to 10.6 percentage points. These findings demonstrate that diversity-preserving resampling and diversity-aware selection are complementary mechanisms for training-free LLM reasoning. Code is available at github.com/MinooAhmadii/chopthin-consensus-power-sampling.

Speculative decoding (SD) accelerates language model inference by drafting tokens from a cheap proposal model and verifying them against an expensive target model via rejection sampling. Because rejection truncates the draft block at the first error, throughput degrades when draft and target diverge. Rather than rejecting draft tokens outright, we propose to reweight them. To this end, we introduce sequential Monte Carlo speculative decoding (SMC-SD), which replaces token-level rejection with importance-weighted resampling over a population of draft particles. SMC-SD is a principled approximate inference scheme that trades exactness for additional speed, while preserving theoretical bounds on its per-step approximation error. Because LLM inference is memory bandwidth-bound, the arithmetic needed to draft particles and to score them in parallel comes nearly for free -- SMC-SD uses idle compute to turn verification into a vectorized, fixed-size operation with no rollback. Empirically, SMC-SD achieves 2.36x speed-up over speculative decoding and a 5.2x speed-up over autoregressive decoding, while remaining within 3% of the target model's accuracy on reasoning, instruction-following, and coding benchmarks.