Temporal Reasoning Is Not the Bottleneck: A Probabilistic Inconsistency Framework for Neuro-Symbolic QA

High-complexity operational environments require methods that characterize temporally distributed patterns rather than classify isolated events. This paper introduces TRACTA (Temporal Reasoning and Capability-Trajectory Analysis), a knowledge-aligned synthetic benchmark for temporal structural reasoning, instantiated through Multi-Domain Operations (MDO)-like scenarios. TRACTA defines offline structural annotations over contextual direct-impact and accumulated capability trajectories and evaluates three tasks: early_warning, pattern_detection, and run_classification. The frozen comparison includes raw-event neural references, a contract-lite rule comparator, and a recurrent semantic-input reference. The semantic-input recurrent reference has the highest aggregate macro-F1 point estimates, with the largest margins on the two temporal tasks, while raw-event references remain predictive and lead in four individual early-warning target--lead settings. Component-zeroing diagnostics show that both semantic trajectory blocks contain useful signal within the evaluated recurrent configuration. Run-local aliasing removes stable cross-run target and location identities from the primary raw input, although executed diagnostics retain shallow predictivity. These results are configuration-level: semantic inputs are aligned with the benchmark's target-generation space, and the evaluated systems also differ in architecture, training, and available information. TRACTA therefore provides a reproducible testbed for examining knowledge-aligned temporal prediction, not evidence of a causal representation advantage, statistically resolved superiority, or operational readiness.

Although large language models (LLMs) can produce fluent spatial reasoning traces, their intermediate relations may fail to support the final conclusion, making token-level confidence insufficient for final-answer reliability estimation. Existing formal verifiers provide stronger semantic evidence, but their applicability is partial: a parsed claim need not yield a definite semantic verdict. To address this issue, we introduce SymboUQ, a symbolic uncertainty quantification framework that estimates final-answer reliability from reasoning traces by distinguishing symbolizability, whether a claim can be represented in the verifier's formal language, from semantic determinacy, whether its execution yields an entailed or contradicted verdict rather than an unknown or not-evaluable outcome. SymboUQ comprises (i) a Layout Auditor that executes ordered spatial claims and extracts feasibility, conflict, and repair evidence; (ii) a label-free Determinacy Profile that characterizes effective executable coverage; and (iii) a Determinacy-Aware Reliability Composer that integrates constraint-based, representation-based, and decoding-based scores according to verifier applicability. Extensive experiments on five spatial reasoning benchmarks with four frozen LLM backbones show that SymboUQ achieves approximately an 8% relative improvement in AUROC and a 7% relative reduction in class-balanced Brier loss over the strongest baseline.

Large language models have demonstrated strong reasoning capabilities in general knowledge question answering. However, their ability to handle temporal information remains limited. To address this limitation, existing approaches often involve external tools or manual verification and are tailored to specific scenarios, leading to poor generalizability. Moreover, these methods apply a fixed pipeline to all questions, overlooking the fact that different types of temporal questions require distinct reasoning strategies, which leads to unnecessary processing for simple cases and inadequate reasoning for complex ones. To this end, we propose AdapTime, an adaptive temporal reasoning method that dynamically executes reasoning steps based on the input context. Specifically, it involves three temporal reasoning actions: reformulate, rewrite and review, with an LLM planner guiding the reasoning process. AdapTime integrates seamlessly with state-of-the-art LLMs and significantly enhances their temporal reasoning capabilities without relying on external support. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.