Edge learning refers to training machine learning models deployed on edge platforms, typically using new data accumulated onboard. The computational limitations on edge devices affect not only model optimisation, but also calculation of the predictive uncertainty of the current model on the unlabelled data, which is vital for informing model updating. In this paper, we investigate edge learning in the context of performing deep image regression on a remote sensing satellite, where a deep network is executed by an onboard computer to regress a scalar y from an input image, e.g., y is the percentage of pixels indicating cloud coverage or land use. We propose an uncertainty-guided edge learning (UGEL) algorithm that can accurately prioritise the data to speed up training convergence of the on-board regression model. Underpinning UGEL is the calculation of predictive uncertainty based on deep beta regression, where a deep network is used to estimate the parameters of a beta distribution for which the target y for an input image has a high likelihood. Compared to established methods for uncertainty estimation that are either too costly on edge devices (e.g., require many forward passes per sample) or make strict assumptions on the predictive distribution (e.g., Gaussian), deep beta regression is computable in a single forward pass and allows more general predictive distributions. Results show that UGEL delivers faster-converging edge learning than active or semi-supervised learning. Code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/anh-vunguyen/UGEL.
Accurate estimation of forest height from satellite imagery is essential for applications such as carbon accounting, biodiversity monitoring, and ecosystem management. While recent deep learning approaches provide accurate predictions, they typically do not quantify predictive uncertainty. This limitation is particularly relevant in geospatial settings characterized by sparse supervision and geographic distribution shift. In this work, we investigate Deep Evidential Regression (DER) for forest height estimation on the TreeUQ benchmark, a large-scale dataset designed for the joint estimation of tree count and average tree height at 10 m resolution, based on Sentinel-1/-2 data as well as tree inventory data over the federal state of Bavaria. To account for the extreme label sparsity of the tree inventory data, we introduce a masked evidential loss for dense geospatial prediction. Using a U-Net architecture with multimodal Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 inputs, the proposed approach jointly predicts tree height and associated uncertainty estimates in a single forward pass. Experimental results show that DER achieves predictive performance comparable to a deterministic U-Net while additionally providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. These findings demonstrate the potential of evidential learning as an efficient framework for uncertainty-aware forest structure estimation from Earth observation data.
Laura Bader, Muhammad Ammar Ahmed, Xiao Xiang Zhu +1
Earth Observation regression tasks such as building height, canopy height, and above-ground biomass estimation underpin critical applications in urban planning, forest monitoring, and climate policy, where both accuracy and reliability are critical. Yet most deep learning models yield only deterministic predictions, providing no indication of per-pixel reliability. These regression tasks are inherently challenging due to heterogeneous land surfaces, skewed target distributions, sensor noise, and signal saturation at high target values, making uncertainty (UC) estimation essential for reliable inference. We address this gap by modeling aleatoric uncertainty using year-long Sentinel-1 SAR and Sentinel-2 MSI time series, proposing two complementary approaches: (i) Gaussian UC, which jointly predicts mean and standard deviation under a Gaussian assumption, and (ii) Quantile UC, which estimates the 10th, 50th, and 90th quantiles to capture asymmetric and heteroscedastic error distributions. Both models are evaluated on three representative EO regression tasks at 10 m spatial resolution. Results show that both approaches match or surpass deterministic benchmarks and existing global products, while delivering well-calibrated, interpretable, and operationally useful confidence estimates. Notably, both models outperform the current 10 m state-of-the-art uncertainty-aware model for canopy height estimation. Our implementation will be available at: https://github.com/RituYadav92/EO-Regression-Uncertainty-Estimation
Conventional image registration algorithms are robust to domain shifts and achieve low errors, but they are slow and computationally expensive. Deep-learning methods are efficient at inference-time, but face challenges in out-of-domain samples. We propose Recursive Uncertainty-Gated Image Registration (RUGI), an algorithm for iteratively refining deformation fields predicted by learning-based registration models. At each iteration, the registration model predicts an incremental deformation, and a gating map modulates the update. Refinements are hence concentrated in regions that remain difficult to register. We explore two gating strategies: a learned uncertainty-based approach and an image residual error approach. We evaluate RUGI on cardiac MRI and echocardiography datasets and show consistent improvements over single-step inference. Ablation experiments demonstrate that iterative refinement alone improves registration, but informative spatial gating provides a significant additional benefit. The error-gated variant of RUGI can also be applied directly to existing pretrained models; applied to VoxelMorph, TransMorph, and CycleMorph, it yields MSE reductions of 27-37% with no modification to the original training procedure. The improvements in registration performance are reflected in decreased errors in ejection fraction estimation relative to ground truths. These results demonstrate that spatially selective iterative refinement provides an effective strategy to improve registration accuracy at inference-time.
Clara Rodrigo González, Oscar Bates, Fu Siong Ng +1