Quantifying uncertainty in neural network predictions is essential for high-stakes domains such as autonomous driving, healthcare, and manufacturing. While existing approaches often depend on costly sampling or restrictive distributional assumptions, we propose Hyperspherical Confidence Mapping (HCM), a simple yet principled framework for sampling-free and distribution-free uncertainty estimation. HCM decomposes outputs into a magnitude and a normalized direction vector constrained to lie on the unit hypersphere, enabling a novel interpretation of uncertainty as the degree of violation of this geometric constraint. This yields deterministic and interpretable estimates applicable to both regression and classification. Experiments across diverse benchmarks and real-world industrial tasks demonstrate that HCM matches or surpasses ensemble and evidential approaches, with far lower inference cost and stronger confidence-error alignment. Our results highlight the power of geometric structure in uncertainty estimation and position HCM as a versatile alternative to conventional techniques.
Hypergraph neural networks have shown powerful capability in modeling higher-order relations, yet their predictive uncertainty remains underexplored. Unlike pairwise graphs, uncertainty in hypergraphs arises not only from noisy attributes and ambiguous labels, but also from variations in node-hyperedge incidence structures and complex higher-order dependencies. Existing approaches mainly estimate uncertainty from final predictions or rely on computationally expensive ensembles and Bayesian inference, limiting their ability to capture uncertainty evolution during representation learning. In this paper, we propose Hypergraph Neural Stochastic Diffusion(HyperNSD), a stochastic differential equation framework for uncertainty estimation on hypergraphs. HyperNSD models hypergraph representations as stochastic processes evolving over node-hyperedge incidence structures. A learnable drift function captures deterministic higher-order diffusion dynamics, while a learnable stochastic forcing function characterizes structural ambiguity and representation noise. Predictive uncertainty is directly quantified through the variability of stochastic representation trajectories, providing an intrinsic uncertainty measure beyond post-hoc confidence scores. We formulate HyperNSD with neural drift and diffusion networks, enabling joint learning of prediction and uncertainty propagation. Theoretical analyses establish well posedness, perturbation stability,permutation equivariance, and numerical convergence of the proposed stochastic dynamics. Experiments on multiple hypergraph benchmarks demonstrate that HyperNSD achieves reliable uncertainty estimation for out-of-distribution and misclassification detection while preserving competitive prediction accuracy. These results provide a principled stochastic-dynamical framework for trustworthy higher-order representation learning.
Modern deep learning models remain notoriously prone to overconfidence, limiting their reliability in high-stakes applications. Bayesian methods aim to counter this by learning a distribution over model parameters, and recent advances now make this feasible for large-scale architectures at costs comparable to AdamW. However, a challenge remains at test time: predictions must be averaged across many forward passes with weights sampled from the posterior, which is prohibitively expensive. Variance propagation offers an efficient alternative, computing layer-wise analytical approximations of uncertainty in a single forward pass. While such techniques are effective for MLPs, their extension to modern architectures remains challenging, due to increased depth and diversity of layer types. To fill this gap, we propose Calibrated Variance Propagation (CVP), which introduces a new propagation method for normalization layers, combines it with recent techniques for handling activation functions, and absorbs residual error through a light calibration step. CVP yields comparably accurate uncertainty estimates to MC sampling across transformers and CNNs, at a fraction of the cost. Against prior variance propagation work, CVP improves coverage at 0.5% risk from 8.2% to 14.6% with BEiT-3 on Visual Reasoning (NLVR2) and from 2.6% to 10.8% with ViLT on VQAv2, with gains extending to convolutional architectures.
Tobias Jan Wieczorek, Leon de Andrade, Thomas Möllenhoff +1
The deployment of deep neural networks in safety-critical domains demands reliable estimates of predictive confidence, yet conventional architectures lack principled uncertainty quantification. This survey provides a structured, critical review of methods for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in deep learning, scoped to ensemble-based and approximate Bayesian approaches and the measures used to summarize their outputs. Relative to existing UQ surveys, our contribution is depth on efficient ensemble approximations and single-pass methods, and a unified treatment that separates the method producing a predictive distribution from the measure that summarizes its uncertainty. We organize methods into five families: Bayesian neural networks, Monte Carlo Dropout, deep ensembles, efficient ensemble approximations, and last-layer or single-pass approaches. We situate adjacent work on evidential and prior networks, conformal prediction, and post-hoc calibration, together with the decision-time tasks of out-of-distribution detection and selective prediction. For each, we examine theoretical motivation, implementation, empirical performance, and limitations. We then review ensemble diversity theory and uncertainty measures and their decompositions, contrasting the entropy decomposition with pairwise divergence measures, and consolidate evaluation methodology so that our qualitative comparisons share a common basis. We close with a brief treatment of uncertainty in large language models and open research directions, including efficient epistemic measures for classification, last-layer diversity, diversity and calibration under shift, and hybrid architectures.