Confidence Calibration

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20 papers in the last four weeks, up 186% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

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  1. Probability is Not Enough: Exploring and Counting Divergent Tokens for Reasoning Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs

    Sep 29, 2026Feiyang Li, Shengjing Liu, Qi Zhan +7Large Language Model UncertaintyConfidence Calibration

    College of Computer Science and Software Engineering, Shenzhen University · Tsinghua University · Behavioral and Spatial AI Lab, Peking University & Tongji University

  2. Guard Models Are Overconfident Where Base Models Are Uncertain

    Sep 29, 2026Jonghyun Hong, MinJae Jung, Minwoo KimLarge Language Model SafetyConfidence Calibration

    DATUMO INC.

  3. Jev thinks "I don't know'', but doesn't say it: Introducing Sys1Cal-v1 Dataset for Probability Calibration

    Sep 28, 2026Riccardo PorceddaProbabilityConfidence Calibration

    Department of Excellence L’EMbeDS, Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies, Italy · Department of Computer Science, University of Pisa, Italy

  4. On the Limits of Metacognitive Monitoring in LLMs

    Sep 28, 2026Dongqi Han, Yifan Yang, Dongsheng LiMetacognitionConfidence Calibration

    Microsoft Research Asia

  5. Do System One Decisions Add Up? A Study of Probabilistic Coherence

    Sep 27, 2026Saman Sarker JoyConfidence CalibrationDecisions

    Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology Universiti Malaya Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

  6. Native Association: Confidence-Aware Human Perception in the Wild with a Foundation VLM

    Sep 27, 2026Igal Dmitriev, Ofir LibaFine-Grained Video UnderstandingOptical Character Recognition

    WSC Sports, Tel Aviv, Israel

  7. Calibration, Not Answer Selection: Distilling Internal Confidence in Reasoning Models

    Sep 27, 2026Yadong Xi, Rongsheng Zhang, Tangjie Lv +2Confidence CalibrationLarge Reasoning Models

    NetEase · Amazon · Singapore University of Technology and Design

  8. Return or Revise? Learning When Revision Helps Retrieval-Augmented QA

    Sep 24, 2026Nicholas Kashani Motlagh, Tim Anderson, Jeremy Gwinnup +1Confidence Calibration

    DCS Corp · Air Force Research Laboratory

  9. Domain Recentering and Confidence-Weighted Prior Calibration for Vision-Language Models

    Sep 24, 2026Youngeun Seol, Jimin Shin, Heeseo Yoon +1Visual EmbeddingsLogit Lens

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Ewha Womans University

  10. Predicting Emerging Topics from Outliers: A Prospective Study of Weak Signals in Embedding Space

    Sep 24, 2026Evangelia Zve, Gauvain Bourgne, Jean-Gabriel GanasciaTopic ModelingOutliers

    LIP6, Sorbonne Université, CNRS · Infopro Digital

  11. SupportCal: Label-Free Calibration of Post-Trained LLMs via Reference Support and Corroboration

    Sep 21, 2026Linhan Luo, Lequan Lin, Dai Shi +3Post-TrainingConfidence Calibration

    The University of Sydney · University of Cambridge · The University of Adelaide

  12. An Analysis of Training-Free Self-Reported Confidence in Language Models

    Sep 17, 2026Lukas Meyer, Sofia Rossi, Wei Chen +2Confidence CalibrationLarge Language Model Reliability

    DreamAI

  13. Confidence Comes from Experience: Experiential Confidence Estimation from Reasoning to Agents

    Sep 15, 2026Caiqi Zhang, Xiaochen Zhu, Chengzu Li +3Confidence EstimationConfidence Calibration

    University of Cambridge 1 Solve & Estimate · Google DeepMind

  14. When Confidence Signals Disagree: Local and Global Confidence in Autoregressive Language Models

    Sep 15, 2026Julio C. Amador Diaz LopezConfidence CalibrationAutoregressive Language Models

    SiftyML, LTD London, United Kingdom

  15. R2VC: Modular Fact-Checking with Retrieval, Verification, and Confidence Calibration

    Sep 14, 2026Dhruv Dixit, Paritosh PandeyFact-CheckingConfidence Calibration

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Stevens Institute of Technology Hoboken, New Jersey, United States · Department of Computer Science University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States

  16. Beyond Confidence: Stability-Aware Test-Time Adaptation for LLM Reasoning

    Sep 12, 2026Bincheng Gu, Min Gao, Zongwei Wang +3Stable Test-Time AdaptationTest-Time Adaptation

    Key Laboratory of Dependable Service Computing in Cyber Physical Society, Chongqing University, China · King’s College London, London, UK · Griffith University, Brisbane, Australia

  17. Legible Failures: Detecting and Repairing In-Context Binding Errors

    Sep 11, 2026Manas Venkata Sai Ravulapalli, Samrath Singh Chadha, Abhinav M. HariIn-ContextConfidence Calibration

    Efficient Computation Inc.

  18. Do Agents Know When They Succeed? Calibrating Agent Confidence from Internal Representations

    Sep 10, 2026Priyanka Mary Mammen, Emil Joswin, Srujananjali MedicherlaProduction Agentic SystemsConfidence Calibration

    UMass Amherst · Independent Research

  19. ProbPlug: A Plugin Uncertainty Network for Reliable Confidence in LLM Binary Classification

    Sep 9, 2026Jianzong Wang, Chuhang Liu, Botao Zhao +6Confidence EstimationConfidence Calibration

    Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd., Shenzhen, China · Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Shenzhen, China · Hubei University of Technology, Hubei, China

  20. Stable-MM-R1: Anchoring Multimodal Reasoning Dynamics via Entropy-Guided Stratification

    Sep 7, 2026Yimeng Ye, Shuang Chen, Wenxuan Huang +8Large Language Model Reinforcement LearningMultimodal Reasoning

    Columbia University · CUHK · THU +1

  21. DualStake: Dual-Path Confidence Calibration in Deep Research Agents

    Sep 1, 2026Yinuo Xu, Yuwei Liang, Jianjie Cheng +4Confidence CalibrationDeep Research

    NLPR & MAIS, Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CASIA) · School of Artificial Intelligence, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences · Meituan Inc.

  22. Chain-of-Thought Faithfulness of Reasoning Models Varies with Where and How Preference Cues Are Delivered

    Aug 29, 2026Aryo Pradipta Gema, Neel Rajani, Rohit Saxena +2Explanation FaithfulnessLarge Reasoning Models

    University of Edinburgh · University of Edinburgh, Miniml.AI

  23. Are You Sure You're Sure? On the Impact of Instruction Tuning on Confidence and Lexical Diversity

    Aug 13, 2026Irina Proskurina, Mayank Kumar, Oyindolapo O. KomolafeInstruction TuningInstruction-Tuned Models

    Cohere Labs Community · Laboratoire Hubert Curien, UMR CNRS 5516, Saint-Étienne, France · School of Computer Science Engineering and Technology (SCSET), Bennett University, Greater Noida, India +1

  24. Confidence Calibration of Deep Learning Systems

    Aug 12, 2026Coby PensoCalibrated UncertaintyOnline Conformal Prediction

    The Faculty of Engineering, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat Gan, Israel

  25. LookBack: Where and How to Score LVLM Responses via Visual Reference Usage

    Aug 12, 2026Beomsik Cho, Jinhyeong Kim, Dongseok Lee +1Citation HallucinationResponses

    Yonsei University

  26. Beyond Single-Turn Confidence: Trajectory-Adapted Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Agents

    Aug 12, 2026Dylan Bouchard, Mohit Singh ChauhanLarge Language Model UncertaintyLarge Language Model Agents

  27. Attention-Path Fragility as an Uncertainty Signal in Large Language Models

    Aug 11, 2026Minsoo Kim, Sungyoung Ji, Kisung Moon +1Large Language Model UncertaintySemantic Entropy

    POSCO Holdings Future Technology Research Institute 440, Teheran-ro, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, Republic of Korea

  28. Semi-Dense Matching Uncertainty Is Not Just Local Confidence

    Aug 9, 2026Khoa Hoang, Hoang-Tuan Nguyen, Huong Ninh +2Coarse-To-FineConfidence Calibration

    University of Engineering and Technology, Vietnam National University, Hanoi · Optoelectronics Center, Viettel Aerospace Institute, Viettel Group · National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Taiwan

  29. Vision-Language Model Confidence Is Not a Property of the Answer

    Aug 6, 2026Reza Khanmohammadi, Erfan Miahi, Ivan Brugere +4Confidence CalibrationVision-Language Foundation Models

    Michigan State University · JPMorgan AI Research · Henry Ford Health

  30. Routing Is Least Learnable Where It Is Most Valuable: Bounds on Representation Routing for Web Agents

    Aug 6, 2026Jiaming Wei, Zekun Wu, Adriano Koshiyama +1Web AgentsStrategic Agents

    University College London / Holistic AI · Holistic AI / University College London · Holistic AI +1

  31. Confidence matters: Leveraging Multi-view Geometric Priors for GS-based Reconstruction

    Aug 6, 2026Hongyu Zhou, Zorah LähnerGeometric Priors3D Gaussian

    University of Bonn · Lamarr Institute for Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence

  32. Sliding Sensors: Configurable Confidence in State Estimation for Continuum Robots

    Aug 5, 2026Ella Walsh, Spencer Teetaert, Eric Diller +2State EstimationSoft Robotics

    University of Toronto Robotics Institute, Toronto, ON, Canada

  33. Provable Limits and Certified Deferral for Verbalized Uncertainty in Small Language Models

    Aug 5, 2026Jianru ShenConfidence CalibrationSmall Large Language Models

    University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812, USA

  34. Stop Replacing Noise with Noise: Two-Source Reliability Assessment for Label Correction and Sample Reweighting in Label-Noise Learning

    Aug 4, 2026Wenxiao Fan, Kan LiNoisy LabelsNoise-Aware

    School of Computer Science, Beijing Institute of Technology

  35. metasignal: A Python Package for Comprehensive Metacognitive Analysis and Decision-Making

    Jul 31, 2026Saurabh Ranjan, Mukesh Makwana, Konstantina Sokratous +1MetacognitionMeta

    University of Florida Gainesville, FL, USA · Brown University Providence, RI, USA · University of Missouri Columbia, MO, USA

  36. One Human, NN Agents: Audit-Budget Allocation for LLM Agent Fleets under Miscalibrated, Correlated Confidence

    Jul 30, 2026Cesare Zavattari, Alessandro Tommasi, Giuseppe PrencipeModel AuditingConfidence Calibration

    Dipartimento di Informatica, Università di Pisa, Pisa, Italy

  37. CheckVLA: Execution-Time Verification with Action-Conditioned World Model for Long-Horizon Mobile Manipulation

    Jul 29, 2026Yushan Liu, Peibo Sun, Xintao Chao +8Action ChunksLong-Horizon Manipulation

    Tsinghua University · Shanghai Jiao Tong University · Peking University +2

  38. Position: Evaluation Scores Are Perishable Knowledge Claims

    Jul 28, 2026Sankalp Gilda, Shlok GildaConfidence CalibrationPosition

    DeepThought Solutions · Meta · University of Florida

  39. Small Vision-Language Models Know When They Are Wrong But Cannot Say So: A Two-Model Study of Stated versus Internal Confidence Under Realistic Image Degradation

    Jul 24, 2026M M Asif FerdousConfidence CalibrationQwen3

    Independent Researcher

  40. Efficient Sequential Evaluation of Large Language Models

    Jul 19, 2026Chia-Yu Hsu, Shubhanshu ShekharLarge Language Model EvaluationConfidence Calibration

    EECS Department, University of Michigan

  41. Critic Experience Bank: Self-Evolving Step-Level Confidence Estimation for LLM Agents

    Jul 14, 2026Yaopei Zeng, Congchao Wang, JianHang Chen +3Large Language Model AgentsConfidence Estimation

    Pennsylvania State University · Virginia Tech · Purdue University +1

  42. Revisiting Matching Response and Swept Feature Volumes for Wide-baseline Omnidirectional Stereo

    Jul 13, 2026Seungjin Jeon, Jongwoo Lim, Changhee WonStereo VisionGeometric Regularization

    UVify Corporate Affiliated Research Institute, Republic of Korea. · Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.

  43. Task-Specific Multimodal Question Answering Agents via Confidence Calibration and Incremental Reasoning for QANTA 2026

    Jul 10, 2026Nirjhar Das, Md. Al-Mamun ProvathMultimodal QueryReasoning Skills

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Chittagong University of Engineering & Technology, Chattogram, Bangladesh.

  44. Calibrated Hybrid CNN-Transformer for Retinal OCT Classification

    Jul 9, 2026Animesh KumarOptical Coherence TomographyHybrid Transformer

    School of Computing, Newcastle University, UK

  45. Future Confidence Distillation in Large Language Models

    Jul 8, 2026Sahil KaleConfidence EstimationConfidence Calibration

    University of California, Los Angeles Los Angeles, USA

  46. On the effectiveness of reward functions in reinforcement learning for confidence calibration of large language models

    Jul 5, 2026Chee Heng Tan, Zhuoyi Lin, Mehul Motani +1Large Language Model Reinforcement LearningLarge Language Model Reliability

    School of Computing National University of Singapore · Institute of Advanced Intelligence and Computing Agency for Science, Technology and Research · Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering National University of Singapore

  47. Fixed-Confidence Best-Arm Identification for Causal Mediation Analysis

    Jul 5, 2026Harsh Shrivastava, Yuta Kawakami, Junpei Komiyama +1Causal Mediation AnalysisConfidence Calibration

    Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence (MBZUAI), Abu Dhabi, UAE · RIKEN AIP, Tokyo, Japan

  48. When Calibration Rankings Reverse: Accuracy-Controlled Evaluation for Fair Comparison of LLMs

    Jun 29, 2026Zhichao Yang, Caiqi Zhang, Ruihan Yang +3Multi-Dimensional EvaluationStrong Large Language Model

    Fudan University · University of Cambridge

  49. Manufactured Confidence: How Memory Consolidation Turns Hearsay into Confident Facts

    Jun 28, 2026Alex KwonConfabulationFacts

    Independent Researcher

  50. Confidence-feedback-weighted graph matching network: online-offline laser-induced damage site matching under complex interference

    Jun 28, 2026Yueyue Han, Guanhua Chen, Hangcheng Dong +6Harder Better Faster Denser Feature MatchingQuery Image

    School of Instrumentation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China · Research Center of Laser Fusion, China Academy of Engineering Physics, Mianyang 621900, China

  51. Confidence Sequences for Online Statistical Model Checking of Markov Decision Processes

    Jun 24, 2026Konstantin Kueffner, Tobias Meggendorfer, Maximilian Weininger +1Markov Decision ProcessesProbabilistic Model Checking

    Institute of Science and Technology Austria, Klosterneuburg, Austria · Lancaster University Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany · Ruhr-University Bochum, Bochum, Germany +1

  52. Don't Go Breaking My LLM: The Impact of Pruning Attention Layers on Explanation Faithfulness and Confidence Calibration

    Jun 23, 2026Pietro Tropeano, Maria Maistro, Tuukka Ruotsalo +1InterpretabilityExplanation Faithfulness

    University of Copenhagen Copenhagen, Denmark · LUT University Lahti, Finland

  53. The Score Granularity Gap in Black-Box LLM Classification: A Comparative Study of Confidence Constructions

    Jun 20, 2026Ao Sun, Tian Sun, Jiaxing GengLarge Language Model ReliabilityConfidence Calibration

  54. Latent Confidence Alignment for LLM Self-Assessment

    Jun 20, 2026Ting-Yu Chen, Tingting Yu, Pei-Cing Huang +3Self-EvaluationConfidence Calibration

    Department of Information Management National Sun Yat-Sen University Kaohsiung, Taiwan · Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital Kaohsiung Medical University Kaohsiung, Taiwan

  55. Quantile Adaptive Temperature Scaling for Confidence Calibration

    Jun 19, 2026Omprakash Chakraborty, Leo Fillioux, Ismail Ben Ayed +1Confidence EstimationConfidence Calibration

    1 ÉTS Montréal, Canada · Université Paris-Saclay, CentraleSupélec, Gustave Roussy, INSERM, CDSU, IHU PRISM, Gif-sur-Yvette

  56. Confidence Calibration for Multimodal LLMs: An Empirical Study through Medical VQA

    Jun 18, 2026Yuetian Du, Yucheng Wang, Ming Kong +4Confidence EstimationMedical Visual Question Answering

    College of Computer Science and Technology, Zhejiang University · School of Computer Science and Technology, Xidian University · Zhihui Medical Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., Shanghai, China +1

  57. Learning Robust Pair Confidence for Multimodal Emotion-Cause Pair Extraction

    Jun 17, 2026Zhuangzhuang Pan, Ning Dong, Yingna Su +1Emotion RecognitionCross-Modal Conflicts

    Institute for Advanced Studies Universiti Malaya Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia · School of Information Engineering Suqian University Suqian 223800, China · Digitization Department Suzhou University of Technology Suzhou 215500, China

  58. Target-confidence Recourse Using tSeTlin machines: TRUST

    Jun 17, 2026K. Darshana Abeyrathna, Sara El Mekkaoui, Nils Enric Canut Taugbøl +1Counterfactual GenerationConfidence Calibration

    Group Research and Development Det Norske Veritas (DNV) Oslo, Norway

  59. Neither Parallel Nor Sequential: How DiffusionGemma Actually Commits Tokens

    Jun 12, 2026Ali Asaria, Tony Salomone, Deep GandhiDiffusion Language ModelsDecoding

    Transformer Lab

  60. Confidence Composition for Multiagent Language Model Systems

    Jun 11, 2026Ali Elahi, Michael J. Curry, Barbara Di EugenioMulti-Agent DebateConfidence Estimation

    University of Illinois Chicago