Equivalence of Coarse and Fine-Grained Models for Learning with Distribution Shift

Recent work due to Goel et al. gave the first efficient algorithms for learning with distribution shift in the challenging PQ framework. In this setting, a learner receives labeled training examples, unlabeled test examples, and must make correct predictions on the test set but is allowed to abstain from predicting on out-of-distribution points. Their results rely on ${\cal L}_2$ sandwiching approximations, a strong requirement that leads to poor bounds for several basic function classes such as DNF formulas. Here, we show that the weaker notion of ${\cal L}_1$ sandwiching suffices for efficient PQ learning. As a consequence, we obtain the first quasipolynomial-time PQ learning algorithm for DNFs under the uniform distribution and essentially match the guarantees known for ordinary PAC learning. More broadly, our bounds provide exponential improvements for several classes including constant depth circuits and constant degree polynomial threshold functions. Our main technical ingredient is Iterative Chow Filtering, a new procedure that uses low-degree Chow parameters to identify and remove test points incompatible with the training distribution.

Generalization under distribution shift remains a core challenge in modern machine learning, yet existing learning bound theory is limited to narrow, idealized settings and is non-estimable from samples. In this paper, we bridge the gap between theory and practical applications. We first show that existing definition of concept shift breaks when the source and target supports mismatch. Leveraging entropic optimal transport, we propose a key notion: $\gamma^{*}\!$-concept shifts, and derive a general error bound unifying covariate and $\gamma^{*}\!$-concept shifts, which applies to broad loss functions, label spaces, and stochastic labeling. We further develop estimators for these shifts with concentration guarantees, and the DataShifts algorithm, which can quantify distribution shifts and estimate the error bound in most applications - a rigorous and general tool for analyzing learning error under distribution shift.

Motivated by learning from heterogeneous and overlapping data providers, we study a stylized model of distribution learning from restricted conditional samples. The goal is to learn an unknown distribution $p$ on a finite domain $[n]$. The learner is given a fixed family of queryable sets $\mathscr{S} \subseteq 2^{[n]}$, and each query to $S \in \mathscr{S}$ returns an independent sample from the conditional distribution $p(\cdot \mid S)$. Learnability is governed by the co-occurrence graph associated with $\mathscr{S}$: two domain elements are adjacent if they appear together in some queryable set. Pointwise consistency is achievable when this graph is connected on the target support. PAC learning requires more: it is possible when the co-occurrence graph is complete. The optimal sample complexity of PAC learning ranges from nearly linear to quadratic. Every query family with complete co-occurrence graph admits sample complexity $\widetilde O(n^2/ε^2)$, and this bound is tight in the worst case. On the other hand, if $[n]$ is queryable then ordinary sampling improves the bound to $Θ(n/ε^2)$, and this cannot be improved further even if every set is queryable. More generally, we identify hierarchical comparabilityas a sufficient structural condition on $\mathscr S$ under which the optimal complexity is nearly linear, $\widetilde Θ(n/ε^2)$, with pairwise query families as a canonical example. Finally, the full range of polynomial rates between linear and quadratic is attainable: for every $α\in (1,2)$, there exists a query family with optimal PAC rate $\widetilde Θ(n^α/ε^2)$.