Convergence and Emergence of In-Context Reinforcement Learning with Chain of Thought

In-context reinforcement learning (ICRL) studies agents that, after pretraining, adapt to new tasks by conditioning on additional context without parameter updates. Existing theoretical analyses of ICRL largely rely on linear attention, which replaces the softmax function in the standard attention with an identity mapping. This paper provides the first theoretical understanding of ICRL without making the unrealistic linear attention simplification. In particular, we consider the standard softmax attention used in practice. We show that, with certain parameters, the layerwise forward pass of a Transformer with such softmax attention is equivalent to iterative updates of a weighted softmax temporal difference (TD) learning algorithm. Here, weighted softmax TD is a new RL algorithm that performs policy evaluation in kernel space and adopts both linear TD and tabular TD as special cases. We also prove that under a certain contraction condition, the policy evaluation error decays as the number of layers grows, with the identified parameters above. Finally, we prove that those parameters are a global minimizer of a pretraining loss, explaining their emergence in our numerical experiments.

We investigate the ability of transformers to perform in-context reinforcement learning (ICRL), where a model must infer and execute learning algorithms from trajectory data without parameter updates. We show that a linear self-attention transformer block can provably implement policy-improvement methods, including semi-gradient SARSA and actor-critic, via explicit parameter constructions. Beyond existence, we design a teacher-mimicking training procedure, analyze its gradient-flow dynamics, and establish the first convergence guarantee in the ICRL literature: under suitable richness conditions on the training MDP distribution, gradient flow converges locally and exponentially to an optimal parameter manifold corresponding to the desired RL update. Empirically, training transformers on randomly generated tabular MDPs confirms these predictions: the learned models recover the parameter structure of our explicit constructions and, when deployed on unseen MDPs, deliver strong in-context control performance. Together, these results illuminate how transformer architectures internalize and execute classical reinforcement learning algorithms in context, bridging mechanistic understanding and training dynamics in ICRL.

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting substantially improves the sample efficiency of transformers, reducing the complexity of tasks like parity learning from exponential to polynomial in the input length. However, generating explicit reasoning steps at inference is computationally expensive. Implicit Chain-of-Thought (ICoT) has emerged as a promising empirical remedy that trains models to internalize intermediate steps within their hidden states, but its theoretical foundations remain poorly understood. We give the first theoretical analysis of ICoT, proving that an $L$-layer transformer trained under our proposed Log-ICoT curriculum learns $k$-parity with $\mathsf{poly}(n)$ samples and $L = \log_2 k$ training stages. This matches the sample efficiency of explicit CoT while eliminating its inference overhead, and extends prior one-layer parity guarantees to multi-layer architectures. Compared to standard ICoT, which removes thinking tokens one at a time, Log-ICoT removes them in geometric chunks, reducing the number of stages from linear in $k$ to logarithmic. Experiments on multi-layer transformers confirm the theory and visualize how reasoning is progressively absorbed into deeper layers.