Bifurcation Models: Learning Set-Valued Solution Maps with Weight-Tied Dynamics

Models of complex systems often have many parameters, yet are constrained by far fewer experimentally accessible observables; consequently, similar activity can emerge from coordinated parameter changes. We formalize these compatible parameter sets as \emph{viable parameter manifolds}: the inverse images of target dynamical features under a parameter-to-feature map. The relevant codimension is not the number of reported features, but the effective rank of that map at the target scale. Locally redundant features lower the effective codimension, while poor conditioning, high curvature, or regime mixing degrade learnability. We train conditional score-based diffusion models on simulated parameter--feature pairs and use them as amortized samplers of prior-weighted viable sets. In the Lorenz system, scalar trajectory statistics generate thin viable sheets, and a finite-tolerance conditioning localizes a transition-adjacent corridor. In the Izhikevich neuron model, four firing descriptors lie close to a nearly two-dimensional family of features, and the learned inverse images reveal distinct regular and irregular compensation geometries. In a deterministic ODE reduction of finite spiking networks, the same framework reveals excitatory--inhibitory compensation, timescale--coupling tradeoffs, and viable manifolds across 4--12 parameter dimensions. In this view, robustness, compensation, and hidden parameter dependencies are organized as inverse geometry, with diffusion models providing practical tools for sampling, visualizing, and interrogating that geometry.

Rich feature learning in tasks that unfold over time often requires the model to pass through bifurcations, constituting qualitative changes in the underlying model dynamics. We develop a local theory of gradient descent near these transitions through the empirical state-space neural tangent kernel (sNTK). Our central finding is that bifurcations both dominate and simplify learning dynamics: near bifurcations, we can reduce sNTK to a rank-one operator corresponding to learning in a classical normal form system, providing an analytically tractable description of the local learning geometry, even for high-dimensional recurrent systems. Concretely, we give a procedure for decomposing sNTK into bifurcation-relevant and residual channels, showing that near commonly codimension-1 bifurcations the relevant channel is a rank-one operator that is highly amplified. This amplification causes the bifurcation channel to dominate the full sNTK. Thus, bifurcations locally warp the learning landscape, funneling gradient descent into a few critical dynamical directions and making the nearby kernel and loss geometry predictable from classical normal forms. We illustrate this in a student-teacher recurrent neural network: the first learned bifurcation coincides with a sharp collapse in sNTK effective rank and the emergence of a dominant parameter direction whose restricted sNTK closely matches the landscape predicted by the scalar pitchfork normal form. Finally, we show that low-rank natural gradient methods resolve the resulting learning instability near bifurcations with very little overhead over SGD.

We propose a minimal dynamical model of adaptive softmax routing for a two-expert Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) layer. The model is obtained as a mean-field limit of a discrete reinforcement rule: the selected expert receives a small score increment, while all scores undergo regularizing decay. In the symmetric case the limiting system has a supercritical pitchfork bifurcation: for weak feedback there is a unique stable balanced state, whereas above a critical feedback strength two stable asymmetric states appear. When an external asymmetry is added, the pitchfork unfolds into a pair of fold bifurcations forming a cusp in the control-parameter plane. We derive exact parametric equations for the bifurcation set and the local normal form of the cusp catastrophe. Numerical experiments connect this picture to empirical expert load, a small trainable MoE model, hard top-1 PyTorch routing, and a small classification experiment on digits. The results provide a controlled low-dimensional mechanism for abrupt transitions to load imbalance in adaptive MoE routers.