Bifurcation Models: Learning Set-Valued Solution Maps with Weight-Tied Dynamics

Models of complex systems often have many parameters, yet are constrained by far fewer experimentally accessible observables; consequently, similar activity can emerge from coordinated parameter changes. We formalize these compatible parameter sets as \emph{viable parameter manifolds}: the inverse images of target dynamical features under a parameter-to-feature map. The relevant codimension is not the number of reported features, but the effective rank of that map at the target scale. Locally redundant features lower the effective codimension, while poor conditioning, high curvature, or regime mixing degrade learnability. We train conditional score-based diffusion models on simulated parameter--feature pairs and use them as amortized samplers of prior-weighted viable sets. In the Lorenz system, scalar trajectory statistics generate thin viable sheets, and a finite-tolerance conditioning localizes a transition-adjacent corridor. In the Izhikevich neuron model, four firing descriptors lie close to a nearly two-dimensional family of features, and the learned inverse images reveal distinct regular and irregular compensation geometries. In a deterministic ODE reduction of finite spiking networks, the same framework reveals excitatory--inhibitory compensation, timescale--coupling tradeoffs, and viable manifolds across 4--12 parameter dimensions. In this view, robustness, compensation, and hidden parameter dependencies are organized as inverse geometry, with diffusion models providing practical tools for sampling, visualizing, and interrogating that geometry.

Rich feature learning in tasks that unfold over time often requires the model to pass through bifurcations, constituting qualitative changes in the underlying model dynamics. We develop a local theory of gradient descent near these transitions through the empirical state-space neural tangent kernel (sNTK). Our central finding is that bifurcations both dominate and simplify learning dynamics: near bifurcations, we can reduce sNTK to a rank-one operator corresponding to learning in a classical normal form system, providing an analytically tractable description of the local learning geometry, even for high-dimensional recurrent systems. Concretely, we give a procedure for decomposing sNTK into bifurcation-relevant and residual channels, showing that near commonly codimension-1 bifurcations the relevant channel is a rank-one operator that is highly amplified. This amplification causes the bifurcation channel to dominate the full sNTK. Thus, bifurcations locally warp the learning landscape, funneling gradient descent into a few critical dynamical directions and making the nearby kernel and loss geometry predictable from classical normal forms. We illustrate this in a student-teacher recurrent neural network: the first learned bifurcation coincides with a sharp collapse in sNTK effective rank and the emergence of a dominant parameter direction whose restricted sNTK closely matches the landscape predicted by the scalar pitchfork normal form. Finally, we show that low-rank natural gradient methods resolve the resulting learning instability near bifurcations with very little overhead over SGD.

Neural networks acquire structured representations at specific moments during training, yet identifying these transitions typically relies on retrospective, label-dependent metrics. We introduce a bifurcation theory of representation dynamics to detect these moments in real time. Analyzing a passive GMM probe attached to the evolving encoder, we show the onset of structure corresponds to a supercritical pitchfork bifurcation driven by the loss Hessian. The system exhibits a theoretically predictable zero-crossing ($β_c$) that, compared to the network's current state ($β$), yields a dynamic ratio $β(t)/β_c(t)$: a universal, label-free phase coordinate for representation dynamics, computable entirely from hidden states. We empirically validate four distinct transition regimes predicted by this coordinate across diverse settings: SAEs on language models (Pythia), SSL (CIFAR), and grokking (modular arithmetic). Crucially, under finite dissipation, macroscopic symmetry-breaking can lag the initial zero-crossing by orders of magnitude, which providing a rigorous dynamical account of the delayed escape observed in grokking. Microscopically, the bifurcation creates a shared unstable subspace, forcing collective symmetry breaking. We term this the "feature lottery" in SAE training: a feature's terminal interpretability becomes predictable remarkably early. By only 5% of training, early atom purity robustly predicts final convergence purity, with top-decile early atoms achieving over 12x the baseline purity at convergence. Beyond explaining concept emergence, $β/β_c$ provides a practical early-warning indicator for training health, detecting the onset of usable structure, the crystallization of feature identity, and representational collapse epochs before downstream metrics react.