POETS: Uncertainty-Aware LLM Optimization via Compute-Efficient Policy Ensembles
Authors: Nicolas Menet, Andreas Krause, Abbas Rahimi
Organizations: IBM Research – Zurich · Department of Computer Science, ETH Zürich
Abstract
Balancing exploration and exploitation is a core challenge in sequential decision-making and black-box optimization. We introduce POETS (Policy Ensembles for Thompson Sampling), a novel framework that bridges uncertainty quantification and policy optimization. Our approach is grounded in the insight that policies trained with Kullback-Leibler (KL) regularization implicitly encode an underlying reward function. Building on this, POETS bypasses the complex, nested process of training an uncertainty-aware reward model and separately fitting a policy to this model. Instead, we directly train a policy ensemble to capture epistemic uncertainty by matching implicitly encoded reward functions to online, bootstrapped data. To overcome the prohibitive compute and memory constraints of ensembling Large Language Models (LLMs), POETS utilizes an efficient architecture: the ensemble shares a pre-trained backbone while maintaining diversity through independent Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) branches. Theoretically, we prove that POETS implicitly conducts KL-regularized Thompson sampling and thus inherits strong cumulative regret bounds of O(TγT). Empirically, we demonstrate that POETS achieves state-of-the-art sample efficiency across diverse scientific discovery domains, including protein search and quantum circuit design. Furthermore, it improves the optimization trajectories of reinforcement learning, proving particularly robust in off-policy settings with experience replay or in small dataset regimes.
Exploration is a cornerstone of learning from experience: it enables agents to find solutions to complex problems, generalize to novel ones, and scale performance with test-time compute. In this paper, we present a framework for post-training language models (LMs) that explicitly encourages optimistic exploration and promotes a synergy between exploration and exploitation. The central idea is to train the LM to generate sets of responses that are collectively accurate under the reward function and exploratory in their reasoning strategies. We first develop a general recipe for optimizing LMs with set reinforcement learning (set RL) under arbitrary objective functions, showing how standard RL algorithms can be adapted to this setting through a modification to the advantage computation. We then propose Polychromic Exploratory Policy Optimization (Poly-EPO), which instantiates this framework with an objective that explicitly synergizes exploration and exploitation. Across a range of reasoning benchmarks, we show that Poly-EPO improves generalization, as evidenced by higher pass@k coverage, preserves greater diversity in model generations, and effectively scales with test-time compute.
Ifdita Hasan Orney, Jubayer Ibn Hamid, Shreya S Ramanujam +5
We study when large language models (LLMs) can serve as effective black-box policy optimizers for reinforcement learning (RL) tasks, i.e., when can we replace classical RL algorithms with an LLM? We explore this question by introducing Prompted Policy Optimization (PromptPO), an iterative method that prompts an LLM with Python descriptions of the state space, action space, and reward function, then has it generate and refine executable policies based on rollout feedback. Across hard exploration environments, Meta-World robotics tasks, and several real-world control problems, PromptPO often matches or exceeds the performance of standard RL baselines while using substantially fewer environment interactions. To maximize expected return, and without further explicit prompting, the policies PromptPO outputs range from tuned proportional controllers or rule-based plans to policies that run planning algorithms like value iteration. Our results demonstrate that LLM-based policy optimization is sufficient when the LLM can leverage prior knowledge about the environment or optimization strategy. PromptPO underperforms standard RL baselines in MuJoCo domains. This demonstrates possible limitations of LLM-based policy optimization to settings that requiring fine-grained continuous control.
Recent advances in online reinforcement learning (RL) for large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated promising performance in complex reasoning tasks. However, they often exhibit an imbalanced exploration-exploitation trade-off, resulting in unstable optimization and sub-optimal performance. We introduce IB-Score, a novel metric grounded in Information Bottleneck theory that evaluates policy's exploration-exploitation balance by quantifying the trade-off between step-level reasoning diversity and mutual information shared with the correct answer. Analysis based on IB-Score shows that popular online RL approaches (e.g., GRPO) with common regularizers fail to consistently maintain balance during training with suboptimal results. To address this, we propose Information Bottleneck-driven Tree-based Policy Optimization (IB-TPO), a principled framework that formulates IB-Score as a fine-grained optimization objective and utilizes a novel IB-guided tree sampling strategy that not only improves the efficiency of online sampling with 50% more trajectories under the same token budget, but also reuses the tree structure for effective IB-Score Monte Carlo estimation. Extensive experiments across standard benchmarks show that our method significantly outperforms GRPO baseline by 2.9% to 3.6% and also outperforms other state-of-the-art online RL approaches. Our code is available at https://github.com/alibaba/EfficientRL.