Distributional Spectral Diagnostics for Localizing Grokking Transitions

On modular arithmetic, a network's embedding keeps compressing for tens of thousands of steps after it has already generalized. Reading effective rank at the grokking transition overstates the converged value by 3-5x on an MLP, and by 1.3-1.5x on a transformer trained to convergence; on the MLP it also erases which cells compress at all. Compression lags the accuracy transition by an amount on the order of the time-to-grok, at least 10,000 steps, rather than coinciding with it. A one-variable ablation shows what sets the lag size: adding LayerNorm to an otherwise identical transformer moves the fraction of compression done by the grok step from 0.87 to 0.25, and a pre-registered control rules out scale invariance as the mechanism. We package this as an audit that separates onset from compression, flags censoring, excludes boundary cells that never fully generalize, and checks that the reference floor has plateaued, with an adversarial suite that caught a false-confidence bug in our own branch. A secondary, MLP-specific depth law linking norm budget to converged floor fails a generality test on a transformer and flips sign under free weight decay. Code and the toolkit are released.

Grokking is the delayed generalisation phenomenon where a transformer trained on modular arithmetic abruptly transitions from near-chance to near-perfect validation accuracy. It has been attributed to a Fourier-based algorithmic circuit, but its timing, causal structure, and controllability remain poorly understood. We introduce the Frequency Synchronization Degree (FSD), a normalised, permutation-tested metric for Fourier circuit synchronisation requiring no prior knowledge of the circuit. Across nine modular addition configurations (five primes, three seeds), FSD reaches its post-grokking level 500 to 3000 steps before grokking (mean lead 1722 steps, every configuration positive, sign-test p approx 0.004), and synchronises before a restricted-logit loss baseline in all nine cases, making it the earliest available predictor. We give direct causal evidence that the inter-phase gap is a regularisation phenomenon: forking training at the FSD-ceiling step and varying weight decay lambda produces monotonically earlier grokking, with delta-t proportional to 1/lambda. This law replicates across three primes (R-squared 0.89 to 0.99 on seed-averaged delta-t); per-run R-squared is unstable due to the chaotic transition, so we report error bars rather than single runs. Grokking occurs at a near-constant memorisation norm across lambda, grounding the constant in a threshold mechanism. This is not an artefact of applying a Fourier detector to a Fourier circuit: on the non-abelian group S5, a basis-faithful generalisation of FSD precedes grokking on all six seeds, while the original Fourier FSD does not. Using the FSD ceiling to schedule a weight-decay increase also accelerates grokking over a fixed schedule without destabilising training. An attention-only variant groks with a strong FSD precursor while an MLP-only model never groks.

Transformers trained on modular arithmetic exhibit sharp transitions between memorization, generalization, and collapse. We show that weight decay acts as a scalar empirical control parameter for these regimes, and introduce two cheap online diagnostics, mean pairwise attention-head cosine similarity and entropy standard deviation, that track training dynamics from attention activations alone and complement loss-landscape diagnostics at lower compute cost. Across eleven experimental conditions and three model scales (0.82M to 85M parameters), the weight-decay axis separates memorization, developmental grokking, and collapse. A near-transition logistic fit localizes the memorization-to-developmental boundary at $λ_c=0.0158$ (95% CI [0.0109, 0.0200], N=210); a power-law fit gives an empirical exponent $ν=0.757$ (CI [0.725, 0.799]). Reference exponents $ν=1/2$ and 3D Ising $ν\approx 0.63$ lie outside this empirical CI under our four-bin grid, so we report $ν$ as empirical and defer universality-class identification to denser finite-size-scaling work. A horizon-matched multi-task replication (n=280, four modular operations) preserves the weight-decay control pattern; a paired attention-head re-initialization experiment at $λ=0.05$ changes Phase-2 amplitude (Cohen's $d=-1.190$, n=10, $p_t=4.5 \times 10^{-3}$), while matched weight-norm clipping does not. Three cross-architecture probes (4L MLP, 4L LSTM, and 4L Mamba; each n=70) replicate the weight-decay-controlled transition with architecture-specific $λ_c$ values. Main diagnostic claims are scoped to modular arithmetic in small transformer attention models; the non-attention experiments are scope probes, and architecture-wide, language-model, and universality-class claims are out of scope.