Transfer Learning for Dead Fuel Moisture Prediction Using Time-Warping Recurrent Neural Networks

Training recurrent neural networks (RNNs) requires assigning credit across long sequences of computations. Standard backpropagation through time (BPTT) addresses this problem poorly: it is sequential in time, limiting parallelism, and suffers from vanishing or exploding gradients, making long-range associations difficult to learn. We propose Supervised Memory Training (SMT), a method for training nonlinear RNNs that sidesteps recurrent credit propagation entirely by reducing RNN training to supervised learning on one-step memory transition labels $(m_t, x_{t+1}) \rightarrow m_{t+1}$. SMT acquires these memory labels by training a Transformer-based encoder on a predictive state objective--retaining only information from the past necessary to predict the future. By decoupling what to remember from how to update memory, SMT enables time-parallel RNN training with a stable $O(1)$ length gradient path between any two tokens--without ever unrolling the RNN. We find that SMT outperforms BPTT when pretraining various RNN architectures on tasks like language modeling and pixel sequence modeling. SMT enables nonlinear RNNs to better capture long-range dependencies and train in parallel, potentially unlocking the scaling of models that build temporal abstractions of past experience.

A temporally drifting data stream may pass through discrete regimes rather than changing continuously. We ask whether such regimes are recoverable from the weights of models trained on the stream, using a hidden Markov model (HMM) fit to the chronologically ordered trajectory of those weights. We study this question in two domains known to drift over time: multimodal misinformation detection, using the Fakeddit dataset; and sentiment analysis, using the Yelp dataset. We train classifiers on consecutive temporal windows and fit an HMM to the trajectory of their aligned weights, recovering latent states that partition each timeline into coherent phases. On both datasets, classifiers generalize better to data from windows sharing the state of their training window than to windows across state boundaries. This within-state transfer advantage survives a control for temporal proximity and modestly exceeds the advantage recovered by a naive partition into contiguous states of equal size. Although the states are estimated solely from model weights, they correlate more strongly with shifts in the data's class distribution than with the weight-space geometry used to estimate them. After class divergence and lag are residualized out, the within-state advantage exceeds its permutation null on both tasks, indicating that the states recover structure relevant to transfer beyond the data distribution. Every effect replicates on both tasks but is attenuated on Yelp, whose label distribution is more temporally stable.

Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation is a critical component of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM), enabling proactive maintenance scheduling and reducing unplanned failures in industrial equipment. This paper presents a comparative study of machine learning approaches for RUL estimation on the NASA C-MAPSS turbofan engine dataset: classical baselines (Ridge Regression, Polynomial Ridge, and XGBoost), a 1D Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. All models are evaluated on the FD001 and FD003 subsets under an identical preprocessing pipeline to ensure a fair comparison. Among raw-sequence models, the LSTM achieves RMSE of 14.93 and 14.20 on FD001 and FD003 respectively, outperforming the deep LSTM reported by Zheng et al.~\cite{paper} (RMSE 16.14 and 16.18) despite using a simpler single-layer architecture. The 1D CNN achieves RMSE of 16.97 on FD001 and 15.68 on FD003, demonstrating competitive performance on FD003 while producing more conservative RUL predictions on FD001. Ridge Regression is evaluated on raw and engineered features, while other classical models use only engineered inputs. XGBoost achieves an RMSE of 13.36 on FD003, highlighting the competitiveness of nonlinear modeling.