Contextual Plackett-Luce: An Efficient Neural Model for Probabilistic Sequence Selection under Ambiguity

Standard selective prediction methods typically estimate uncertainty from the output of a single predictive branch. While effective for general uncertainty estimation, these approaches often struggle under partial observability, where local temporal evidence can be contradictory and standard confidence scores become misleading. We introduce CHASE (Competing Hypotheses for Ambiguity-Aware Selective Prediction), a selective prediction framework that explicitly compares structured temporal explanations to determine whether to commit to a decision or abstain. Because genuine ambiguity causes the score gap between competing hypotheses to collapse, CHASE optimizes a ranking-aware selector over these hypothesis margins to globally separate safe commitments from fundamentally uncertain ones. We evaluate this framework on the problem of hidden connectivity inference, utilizing a controlled, physically grounded simulator inspired by the dynamics of giant unilamellar vesicles (GUVs), alongside zero-shot qualitative transfer (without retraining or fine tuning) to representative real GUV videos. Our experiments demonstrate that explicitly reasoning over competing hypotheses provides a superior balance of metrics. Compared to canonical uncertainty baselines, CHASE achieves statistically significant gains in overall no-abstain accuracy, three-way accuracy, and overall ambiguity-aligned abstention (at 80% coverage). Specifically, it yields up to an 11.0% relative mean improvement in overall alignment, alongside up to an 8.8% relative boost in three-way accuracy in the very-high ambiguity regime. By maintaining a selective risk boundary strictly at par with the best baselines at 80% coverage, and reducing overall risk by 9.9% at 90% coverage, this framework offers a more reliable approach to decision-making under structured ambiguity.

We study learning a mixture of $k$ Plackett-Luce models from multi-way ranking responses from annotators that may represent heterogeneous underlying preferences. This problem has many applications in AI alignment and preference optimization. Prior work has studied mixtures of Bradley-Terry models from pairwise comparisons. However, estimating a mixture of multi-way ranking models can become theoretically unidentifiable when $k$ exceeds $m/2$, where $m$ is the ranking length. We design an efficient algorithm to address this issue by first augmenting the rankings to a larger size (e.g., generating comparisons from a base model), followed by a gradient-based estimation to reduce inference cost (in the input embedding space). With this procedure in mind, we then fit a mixture of Plackett-Luce (PL) models via an expectation-maximization-style iteration, or MoPLEx in short. We conduct extensive experiments to verify this algorithm. First, we find that the gradient-based approximation estimates true probabilities with less than 5% error on models with up to 34 billion parameters. Second, MoPLEx improves clustering and ranking accuracy by an average of 43.7% and 15.2% over baselines using a single PL model or a mixture of Bradley-Terry models, on UltraFeedback and PERSONA datasets. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of MoPLEx for tackling multi-way rankings following heterogeneous preferences through measuring alignment via gradients.

Sequential prediction is challenging in regimes of delayed disambiguation, where early observations are ambiguous and multiple latent explanations remain plausible until sufficient evidence accumulates. Standard approaches based on marginal inference struggle in this setting, either collapsing uncertainty prematurely or failing to recover once informative evidence arrives. We introduce EviTrack, a test-time inference framework that operates over latent trajectories rather than marginal states. EviTrack maintains a set of competing trajectory hypotheses and applies evidence- and likelihood-ratio-based selection to delay commitment until supported by data, drawing inspiration from hypothesis management in multiple hypothesis tracking and track-before-detect. To evaluate this setting, we construct a controlled synthetic benchmark with known latent ground truth that explicitly exhibits delayed disambiguation. At matched inference budget, EviTrack substantially outperforms sampling-based baselines, achieving faster post-disambiguation recovery. These results show that, in delayed disambiguation regimes, moderate trajectory-level selection is more effective than increasing sampling coverage, highlighting selection over sampling as a key principle for reliable sequential inference.