Organizations: Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research (CAIR) University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa · Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos Group, Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
Abstract
Spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) are widely used for short-term forecasting in dynamic physical systems such as traffic and weather. However, the prevailing evaluation practice uses real world benchmark data sets in a single domain with a single fixed holdout splits, making it difficult to compare architectures across different dynamical regimes. We introduce ChaosNetBench (CNB), a synthetic benchmark dataset and evaluation framework for studying STGNN performance under controlled multidimensional chaotic dynamics. CNB is built on a lattice of coupled standard maps with independently tunable local chaos (K), coupling strength (ε), and system size (N), providing known topology and known dynamics across 96 system instances and 9{,}600 trajectories. We introduce chaos indicators, evaluation metrics and a protocol to analyze and compare the capacity of STGNN architectures to deal with different levels of local and global chaos. We illustrate the usage of the framework by analyzing 13 architectures (5 STGNNs and 8 non-graph baselines). The results reveal a regime dependent transition in which non-graph baselines (TCN, N-BEATS, iTransformer) remain competitive when there is low local chaos, while STGNNs (e.g., Graph WaveNet, D2STGNN, STAEformer) are generally more resilient to higher levels of local and global chaos. CNB provides a practical, reusable testbed for systematically comparing and analyzing the capacity of STGNN architectures to handle different levels of local and global chaos.
Spatio-Temporal forecasting is crucial in diverse fields, such as transportation, climate, and energy. Urban spatio-temporal data exhibits temporal mirage: similar short-window inputs have divergent future trends, and vice versa. Existing spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) cannot effectively identify such mirages. We argue that the core reason lies in the short-window inputs that have incomplete period observation, heterogeneous global spatial correlation, and cross-period superposition causality. To bridge this gap, we develop a novel Multi- Period Pattern Pre-training (MP3), a plug-and-play pre-training plugin for distinguishing temporal mirages. MP3 presents two core innovations: (1) The multi-period pattern learning is designed to learn multi-period patterns from long time series. Specifically, multi-period temporal modeling leverages edge convolution to identify different multi-period patterns. Multi-period spatial modeling uses a bottleneck project and a global memory bank to capture heterogeneous global spatial relations efficiently. Cross-period pattern interaction employs a causality-enhanced Transformer to capture dependencies across different period patterns. (2) This plugin can seamlessly integrate into existing STGNN backbones to strengthen their forecasting performance. The experiment on five STGNN baselines across five real-world datasets (including a large-scale dataset CA) verify the effectiveness, superior scalability and strong adaptability of MP3, which brings consistent and robust performance improvements across all evaluated baselines. On average, MP3 reduces the MAE 4.7% and the RMSE 5.0%. The code can be available at https://github.com/YAN-outlook/MP3.
The robustness of synchronization is typically characterized by scalar, per-node stability indices whose dependence on topology is studied via network science or graph neural networks (GNNs). We propose a novel upstream task, learning stability landscapes, which provide deeper insights into synchronization behavior and from which many such scalar indices can be derived. Crucially, we pioneer a graph-to-image prediction paradigm: learning image-like landscapes as per-node targets directly from graph topology, a formulation we are not aware of having been established elsewhere in the literature. To support this task, we release two datasets of 10,000 graphs each at 20 and 100 nodes with per-node landscape labels, based on a conceptual oscillator model, capturing power grid synchronization behavior. A GNN encodes topology and a CNN decoder renders per-node images, learned end-to-end with good in-distribution accuracy, generalizing across graph sizes and to realistic power grid topologies. This demonstrates that stability landscapes, while beyond the reach of conventional network science, are learnable from topology and open new avenues for moving beyond scalar stability indices in biology, neuroscience, and power grids.
High quality temporal graph benchmarks with rich semantics and ground-truth anomaly labels are essential for training graph neural networks, yet remain scarce due to privacy constraints and annotation costs. We present SAGA (Synthetic Agentic Graph Architecture), a system for generating large-scale, semantically rich temporal graphs via a four-phase pipeline. Our Skeleton-First, Semantics-Second architecture decouples structure from semantics: (S) an O(1)-per-edge skeleton generator produces power-law graphs; (A) a dispatcher partitions causally ordered time blocks for parallel execution; (G) LLM agents inject domain semantics using RAG-based rule bases across four domains; and (A) a state alignment engine resolves conflicts via temporal replay, yielding anomaly labels as natural byproducts. Unlike structural generators (e.g., LDBC SNB, Kronecker/R-MAT) or purely LLM-based approaches, SAGA achieves structural realism, semantic richness, and automatic anomaly labeling in a unified framework. On a single H100 GPU with vLLM batching, SAGA generates 500,000 temporal edges with controlled anomalies in under 90 minutes, scaling to 100,000 nodes while maintaining clustering coefficients above 0.99. The system supports real-time pipeline visualization, interactive multi-domain tuning (Finance/AML, Network/IDS, Cyber/APT, Transportation), and a CLI for large-scale GPU-based experiments.