Continuous Flood Nowcasting in South Asia: A Multi-Sensor Ensemble Remote Sensing Framework for Flood Extent

Effective flood monitoring is critical for minimizing the impacts of flood disasters on populations and infrastructure. Yet reliable remote sensing across extensive and environmentally diverse regions remains challenging, as most segmentation algorithms lack the generalisation capacity required for large-scale application, while annotated flood data are scarce and unevenly distributed. This study presents an end-to-end multimodal framework for Russian Federation territories sustainable flood monitoring and damage assessment based on synthetic aperture radar data, multispectral imagery, and digital elevation models with their derivatives, forming a 21-channel input. Using a self-collected multimodal dataset covering seven Russian regions, two strategies for water surface detection under limited data conditions were compared: a supervised U-Net++ model and the self-supervised AnySat architecture pre-trained and fine-tuned for the segmentation task. Under the data conditions of this study, supervised learning proved more effective, while the AnySat-based approach offered greater stability and retains advantages for settings where larger unlabelled data or missing modalities at inference are expected. The best flood area predictions were used to estimate flood impact in urban areas in terms of the area affected, material damage, casualties, and ecological and agricultural impact. The estimations were conducted following the official methodology of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations. Applied to the 2019 Tulun flood, the obtained results closely matched official assessments, except for material damage, due to the open-source databases usage. The results demonstrate the potential of deep learning and multimodal satellite data integration for scalable, reliable flood monitoring across diverse environmental and data-limited conditions.

Reliable high-resolution flood extent mapping from satellite imagery remains constrained by limited data fidelity and sensor-specific artifacts. Multispectral optical imagery is degraded by clouds, shadows, and urban confounders, while synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery is affected by speckle noise and sensor co-registration uncertainty. This work presents an integrated flood mapping framework that jointly addresses these limitations through curated datasets and novel learning strategies. We introduce a new Sentinel-2 (S2) and Sentinel-1 (S1) dataset covering the contiguous United States, featuring pixel-accurate 10 m water masks with emphasis on challenging weather conditions and urban environments that are underrepresented in existing benchmarks. High-quality S2 annotations are manually produced using rigorous geospatial labeling protocols and transferred to SAR imagery through weakly labeled temporally coincident acquisitions. To address SAR-specific artifacts, a shift-invariant loss function is employed to tolerate residual geolocation uncertainty between SAR imagery and optical-derived labels, and a Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE) is trained on multitemporal SAR composites to suppress speckle while preserving flood-relevant spatial structure. Experiments using UNet and UNet++ architectures demonstrate strong multispectral performance (AUPRC up to 0.956) and statistically significant improvements in SAR flood mapping when using shift-invariant loss and CVAE-based despeckling compared to classical filters. These results underscore the importance of dataset fidelity, misalignment-robust training, and demonstrate the viability of generative despeckling for operational flood mapping.

Flooding is the most pervasive natural disaster worldwide. Timely and accurate flood inundation mapping are essential for informing disaster risk management. Optical satellite missions provide high-resolution, multispectral observations critical for flood detection and inundation mapping. However, their operational utility is severely constrained by cloud cover during extreme precipitation events. Conventional cloud-removal techniques based on temporal compositing or interpolation often fail to capture inundation dynamics. In this study, we introduce a cloud-removal framework for flood imagery based on Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models, leveraging the Masked Diffusion Transformer architecture. The proposed approach exploits self-attention mechanisms to capture wider spatial context and employs masked token modeling to explicitly learn the reconstruction of cloud-obscured regions. Trained on multispectral Sentinel-2B flood scenes with realistic cloud patterns, the model generates cloud-free image realizations that preserve both visual fidelity and hydrological consistency. Reconstruction performance is evaluated using standard image quality metrics alongside flood-specific hydrological measures, demonstrating improved continuity of water bodies and preservation of spectral signatures critical for water detection indices. The results indicate that diffusion-based generative modeling offers a robust and physically consistent alternative for cloud removal in optical flood monitoring, enabling more reliable, continuous observations to support disaster risk management and flood-related decision making.