We propose and analyze a model-based bootstrap for transition kernels in finite controlled Markov chains (CMCs) with possibly nonstationary or history-dependent control policies, a setting that arises naturally in offline reinforcement learning (RL) when the behavior policy generating the data is unknown. We establish distributional consistency of the bootstrap transition estimator in both a single long-chain regime and the episodic offline RL regime. The key technical tools are a novel bootstrap law of large numbers (LLN) for the visitation counts and a novel use of the martingale central limit theorem (CLT) for the bootstrap transition increments. We extend bootstrap distributional consistency to the downstream targets of offline policy evaluation (OPE) and optimal policy recovery (OPR) via the delta method by verifying Hadamard differentiability of the Bellman operators, yielding asymptotically valid confidence intervals for value and Q-functions. Experiments on the RiverSwim problem show that the proposed bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs), especially the percentile CIs, outperform the episodic bootstrap and plug-in CLT CIs, and are often close to nominal (50%, 90%, 95%) coverage, while the baselines are poorly calibrated at small sample sizes and short episode lengths.
Offline policy evaluation (OPE) is crucial in high-stakes reinforcement learning applications, where new policies must be assessed reliably before deployment. In such settings, point estimates alone are insufficient; principled uncertainty quantification, such as confidence intervals and variance estimates, is essential for safe and risk-aware decision-making. A comprehensive way to unify these tasks is to estimate the sampling distribution of the evaluation error. Existing approaches, however, often suffer from limited robustness, scalability, or finite-sample validity. In this paper, we propose a model-based bootstrap framework for uncertainty quantification of OPE in finite-horizon, time-inhomogeneous Markov decision processes (MDPs). Unlike classical bootstrap methods that rely on resampling complete episodes, the proposed method regenerates trajectories from an estimated MDP and can therefore accommodate a much broader range of offline data formats, including complete trajectories, transition-level observations, and trajectory fragments. This flexibility further improves finite-sample statistical efficiency. We establish bootstrap distributional consistency, asymptotically valid confidence intervals, and consistent variance estimation for the target policy value. Extensive simulations show that the proposed method accurately captures the sampling distribution of the OPE estimator, yielding tighter confidence intervals and more accurate variance estimates in most settings.
We propose a model-free offline multi-step reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm, Conservative Peng's Q(λ) (CPQL). Our algorithm adapts the Peng's Q(λ) (PQL) operator for conservative value estimation as an alternative to the Bellman operator. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work in offline RL to theoretically and empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of conservative value estimation with a \textit{multi-step} operator by fully leveraging offline trajectories. The fixed point of the PQL operator in offline RL lies closer to the value function of the behavior policy, thereby naturally inducing implicit behavior regularization. CPQL simultaneously mitigates over-pessimistic value estimation, achieves performance greater than (or equal to) that of the behavior policy, and provides near-optimal performance guarantees -- a milestone that previous conservative approaches could not achieve. Extensive numerical experiments on the D4RL benchmark demonstrate that CPQL consistently and significantly outperforms existing offline single-step baselines. In addition to the contributions of CPQL in offline RL, our proposed method also contributes to the offline-to-online learning framework. Using the Q-function pre-trained by CPQL in offline settings enables the online PQL agent to avoid the performance drop typically observed at the start of fine-tuning and to attain robust performance improvements. Our code is available at https://github.com/oh-lab/CPQL.
We consider the policy evaluation and control in a finite horizon reinforcement learning (RL) setting under an expectile-based objective. First, we derive the mean-squared error (MSE) and concentration bounds for the classic estimator of expectiles based on independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) samples. To the best of our knowledge, expectiles have not been analyzed in the non-asymptotic regime and the bounds we derive may be of independent interest. Next, we analyze a Monte Carlo type estimator of expectile of the Markov chain underlying a given policy. We derive upper bounds that hold in expectation as well as with high probability for this estimator. Further, we show the order-optimality of our estimator by deriving a lower bound on expectile-based policy evaluation. For the problem of control, we adopt a policy gradient approach and derive a policy gradient theorem for expectiles. Using this result, we propose a gradient estimator with a O(1/m) mean-squared error bounds, where m is the number of trajectories. Further, under standard assumptions for policy gradient-type algorithms, we establish smoothness of the expectile-sensitive objective, in turn leading to stationary convergence rate bounds for the overall risk-sensitive policy gradient algorithm that we propose. Finally, we conduct numerical experiments to show the utility of expectiles on popular RL benchmarks.