OceanCBM: A Concept Bottleneck Model for Mechanistic Interpretability in Ocean Forecasting

Ocean dynamics are inherently chaotic, yet existing machine learning ocean models produce only deterministic forecasts. We introduce Njord, a probabilistic data-driven model for ocean forecasting, applicable to both global and regional domains. Njord combines a deep latent variable framework with a graph neural network architecture, enabling sampling each forecast step in a single forward pass. We apply Njord globally at 0.25° resolution and regionally to the Baltic Sea at 2 km resolution. To scale to these large ocean grids we introduce K-means cluster meshes that adapt to irregular sea surface geometry. Experiments demonstrate strong performance on both domains compared to deterministic machine learning baselines, while also providing uncertainty estimates from the sampled ensemble forecasts. On the global OceanBench benchmark, Njord achieves the lowest errors on average across upper-ocean variables when evaluated against real-world observations, with the largest improvements in surface temperature prediction.

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) provide an intrinsically interpretable alternative to post-hoc explanations. However, existing CBMs often rely on predefined concept vocabularies or supervised annotations, lack explicit concept grounding, and summarize each concept with a single image-level score -- discarding spatial recurrence and inter-concept dependencies. We propose a Graph-based Concept Bottleneck Model (G-CBM), an intrinsically interpretable framework that performs unsupervised concept discovery via Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) and represents the discovered concepts as nodes in a per-image concept-graph representation. G-CBM matches region-level features to these concept nodes -- providing concept grounding and capturing concept recurrence across the image -- and applies a \emph{tunable concept filtering threshold} $τ$ to suppress weak region-level features. A Graph Attention Network (GAT) then performs concept-level reasoning by modeling nonlinear dependencies across nodes. Across ImageNet, HAM10000, PH2, and Derm7pt, G-CBM achieves an average relative AUC improvement of 3.7% over a ResNet-50 baseline. Concept filtering frequently improves predictive performance while inducing selective concept use, achieving peak AUC of $0.96$ on PH2 with only 2 of 10 concepts and 0.92 on HAM10000 with 3.8 of 9 concepts. On dermoscopy benchmarks, G-CBM is competitive with supervised approaches requiring external annotations. Deletion/insertion analyses with random ablation controls show that the learned concept ranking faithfully reflects model predictions.

Explainability of deep learning algorithms is critical for computer-vision applications with high-stake decisions. Concept bottleneck models (CBM) have recently shown promising performance to provide explainable and accurate predictions for classification problems, based on a bottleneck of high-level concepts. Existing CBM methods rely on a linear aggregation of the concept scores to compute predictions. However, a large number of concepts is often used in this linear approach, which undermines explainability and favors information leakage. In general, the underlying relation between concepts and output logits is not linear. Therefore, we introduce Hoeffding Concept Bottleneck Models (HCBM), which build on the Hoeffding functional decomposition of gradient-boosted trees to provide non-linear and sparse aggregations of concept scores, and generate compact predictions using prime implicants. HCBM are proved to be robust to interconcept leakage, and outperform standard linear CBM in practice, as shown in extensive experiments. Beyond classification, HCBM can be adapted to object detection, and we focus on a challenging case with overhead images to show the high performance of HCBM in these settings.