Rethinking Molecular OOD Generalization via Target-Aware Source Selection
Authors: Zhuohao Lin, Kun Li, Jiameng Chen, Jiajun Yu, Duanhua Cao, Yizhen Zheng, Wenbin Hu
Abstract
Robust prediction of molecular properties under extreme out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios is a pivotal bottleneck in AI-driven drug discovery. Current scaffold-splitting protocols fail to obstruct microscopic semantic overlap, predisposing models to shortcut learning and overestimating their true extrapolation capability; meanwhile, conventional domain adaptation paradigms suffer under extreme structural shifts, as blindly aligning heterogeneous source libraries injects topological noise and triggers negative transfer. To address these two challenges, scaffold-cluster out-of-distribution performance evaluation benchmark (SCOPE-BENCH), a benchmark built on cluster-level partitioning in an explicit physicochemical descriptor space, is proposed alongside policy optimization for multi-source adaptation (POMA), a framework that formulates knowledge transfer as a retrieve-compose-adapt pipeline: labeled source scaffolds structurally close to the unlabeled target are first identified as proxy targets; a reinforcement learning policy then adaptively selects the optimal source subset from an exponentially large candidate pool; and dual-scale domain adaptation is finally performed at macroscopic topological and microscopic pharmacophore scales. Evaluations show that prediction errors of state-of-the-art 3D molecular models surge by up to 8.0x on SCOPE-BENCH with a mean of 5.9x, while POMA achieves up to an 11.2% reduction in mean absolute error with an average relative improvement of 6.2% across diverse backbone architectures. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Molecular-OOD-Code-73F6.
Data-driven molecular discovery leverages artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) and generative modeling to filter and design novel molecules. Discovering novel molecules requires accurate out-of-distribution (OOD) predictions, but ML models struggle to generalize OOD. Currently, no systematic benchmarks exist for molecular OOD prediction tasks. We present BOOM, benchmarks for out-of-distribution molecular property predictions: a chemically-informed benchmark for OOD performance on common molecular property prediction tasks. We evaluate over 150 model-task combinations to benchmark deep learning models on OOD performance. Overall, we find that no existing model achieves strong generalization across all tasks: even the top-performing model exhibited an average OOD error 3x higher than in-distribution. Current chemical foundation models do not show strong OOD extrapolation, while models with high inductive bias can perform well on OOD tasks with simple, specific properties. We perform extensive ablation experiments, highlighting how data generation, pre-training, hyperparameter optimization, model architecture, and molecular representation impact OOD performance. Developing models with strong OOD generalization is a new frontier challenge in chemical ML. This open-source benchmark is available at https://github.com/FLASK-LLNL/BOOM
Drug synergy prediction (DSP) aims to identify efficacious drug combinations under various cellular contexts with different targets. However, the continual emergence of novel compounds results in variations in molecular scaffolds and sizes, causing drug synergy data to exhibit out-of-distribution (O.O.D.) shifts with respect to topological structure. Existing works rely on in-distribution (I.D.) assumption, failing to handle the O.O.D. shifts. To solve this problem, we study out-of-distribution generalized drug synergy prediction through a graph large language model for the first time. Nevertheless, O.O.D. generalized DSP is highly non-trivial, posing several challenges: i) how to discover structurally relevant and irrelevant molecular representations with respect to cell targets; ii) how to find the optimal graph neural architectures that accurately calculate molecular representations; and iii) how to jointly leverage molecular structural and semantic information in LLMs. To address these challenges, we propose OOD-GraphLLM, a novel graphLLM framework which is able to accurately predict drug synergy under O.O.D. settings via jointly optimizing molecular graph representation and biomedical semantic language representations in a unified manner. Furthermore, we finetune DrugSyn-LLM, a biomedical LLM, and employ a retrieval-augmented biomedical instruction tuning strategy to align molecular topological information and molecular semantic information with language-based reasoning for O.O.D. generalized DSP. Both the source code (https://github.com/EkkoXiao/Bio-GraphLLM) and released model (https://mn.cs.tsinghua.edu.cn/bio-graphllm/) are publicly available, where users are allowed to download model resources and interactively use the system through a web interface.
Machine-learning drug-discovery pipelines increasingly rely on generative models that propose molecules far from the data used to train downstream synthesizability filters. Existing filters (SAScore, SCScore, RAscore, DeepSA) are purely statistical and degrade in exactly this out-of-distribution (OOD) regime. We ask whether cheap, closed-form physical priors, used as auxiliary supervision on a graph neural network (GNN), improve OOD generalization. We add two auxiliary losses to a GINE backbone: a topological complexity regression supervised by the Bertz index, and a strain-energy soft penalty supervised by MMFF94 force-field energy. On a 65,177-molecule corpus (HIV, Tox21, COCONUT) labeled by SAScore thresholds we reproduce a strong in-distribution baseline, then evaluate a 4-way ablation (baseline / +complexity / +strain / +both) on a single-source OOD split (train on drug-like HIV+Tox21, test on COCONUT natural products), repeated over 5 seeds with paired bootstrap confidence intervals. All three physics-aware variants give a small but statistically significant OOD improvement over the baseline (mean OOD AUC 0.9774): +complexity Delta = +0.0060 (95% CI [+0.0023, +0.0102]), +strain Delta = +0.0032 ([+0.0008, +0.0052]), +both Delta = +0.0066 ([+0.0038, +0.0093]); every interval excludes zero, and the combination is best. The variants are indistinguishable in-distribution, so the effect is visible only under OOD evaluation. We are explicit that the effects are modest, and we report a cautionary methodological finding: a single-seed version of this experiment produced a qualitatively different (non-monotone) story that did not survive multi-seed evaluation.