Bounded-Rationality, Hedging, and Generalization

Generalization bounds for deep learning models are typically vacuous, not computable or restricted to specific model classes. In this paper, we tackle these issues by providing new disagreement-based certificates for the gap between the true risk of any two predictors. We then bound the true risk of the predictor of interest via a surrogate model that enjoys tight generalization guarantees, and by evaluating our disagreement bound on an unlabeled dataset.We empirically demonstrate the tightness of the obtained certificates and showcase the versatility of the approach by training surrogate models leveraging three different frameworks: sample compression, model compression and PAC-Bayes theory. Importantly, such guarantees are achieved without modifying the target model, nor adapting the training procedure to the generalization framework.

Divergence-based regularization and Sharpness-Aware Minimization (SAM) are two prominent approaches for improving generalization in deep learning, both motivated by robustness to perturbations. However, their relationship has remained largely unexplored. Building on classical second-order expansions of $f$-divergences, we show that the two methods are locally consistent under parameter-space perturbations: both induce curvature-sensitive penalties, with divergence regularization yielding a Fisher-weighted quadratic form and SAM penalizing sharpness through the dominant Hessian eigenvalue. For negative log-likelihood objectives with exponential-family output distributions, this correspondence becomes especially transparent, since the Fisher and Gauss-Newton matrices coincide. We further show that the same local geometric perspective extends to input-space perturbations, where divergence-based regularization is defined through transformations of the input. In this setting, the regularizer induces a pullback quadratic form on the input space, providing a more general perturbation framework than standard SAM while preserving the same local sensitivity interpretation. To validate the analysis empirically, we use the asymmetric $α$-skew Jensen-Shannon divergence (JSD) family as a controlled testbed. Its local curvature coefficient scales as $α(1-α)$ and is maximized at the symmetric point $α=\tfrac12$, which recovers the standard JSD. Loss-landscape visualizations in the input-perturbation regime show that stronger induced curvature penalization is associated with flatter local minima. Experiments on four benchmark datasets further demonstrate that both accuracy and negative log-likelihood are consistently best near this regime of maximal curvature penalization.

We study expected generalization bounds for the Hierarchical Federated Learning (HFL) setup using Wasserstein distance. We introduce a generalized framework in which data is sampled hierarchically, and we model it with a multi-layered tree structure that induces dependencies among the clients' datasets. We derive generalization bounds in terms of Wasserstein distance under the Lipschitz assumption on the loss function, by applying a supersample construction that allows us to measure the sensitivity of the algorithm to the change of a single node in the sampling tree. By leveraging the FL structure, we recover and strictly imply existing state-of-the-art conditional mutual information (CMI) bounds in the case of bounded losses. We also show that our bound can be applied together with Differential Privacy assumptions, to recover generalization bounds based on algorithmic privacy. To assess the tightness of our bounds, we study the Gaussian Location Model (GLM) and show that we recover the actual asymptotic rate of the generalization error.