TabKDE: Simple and Scalable Tabular Data Generation with Kernel Density Estimates

Most tabular-data generators match marginal statistics yet ignore causal structure, leading downstream models to learn spurious or unfair patterns. We present TabSCM, a mixed-type generator that preserves those causal dependencies. Starting from a Completed Partially Directed Acyclic Graph (CPDAG) found by any causal structure discovery algorithm, TabSCM (i) orients edges to a DAG, (ii) fits root-node marginals with KDE or categorical frequencies, and (iii) learns topologically ordered structural assignments. Such assignments are achieved using conditional diffusion models for continuous variables as child nodes and gradient-boosted trees for categorical ones. Ancestral sampling yields semantically valid records and enables exact counterfactual queries. On seven public datasets, encompassing healthcare, finance, housing, environment, TabSCM matches or surpasses state-of-the-art GAN, diffusion, and LLM baselines in statistical fidelity, downstream utility, and privacy risk, while also cutting rule-violation rates and providing causally meaningful and robust conditional interventions. Because generation is decomposed into explicit equations, it runs up to 583$\times$ faster than diffusion-only models and exposes interpretable knobs for fairness auditing and policy simulation, making TabSCM a practical choice for realism, explainability, and causal soundness.

Density estimation underlies many unsupervised tasks on tabular data such as anomaly detection, out-of-distribution detection, and data augmentation. Although all these problems reduce to questions about where probability mass lies, they are typically solved individually by fitting a separate model to each dataset, with its own hyperparameters and tuning budget. We introduce ICED, an in-context, energy-based density estimator that removes this per-dataset cost. ICED is a transformer-based model pretrained once on a synthetic prior built specifically for density estimation under an objective that fits log-density where it is informative and preserves its ordering elsewhere. In the inference, it reads a dataset as context and returns an unnormalized log-density for any query point in a single forward pass, with no fitting, sampling, or hyperparameter selection. A single frozen ICED model then drives four tasks usually handled by four specialized pipelines: density estimation, out-of-distribution detection, unsupervised anomaly detection, and generative augmentation. Across all four, it is competitive with the strongest task-specific method, while being the only approach that needs no retraining, no tuning, and no labels to move between them. The code is available at https://github.com/gmum/iced.

Synthetic tabular data support use cases like data sharing, model development under access restrictions, and rapid prototyping of analytical workflows. Modern generative models are evaluated by their statistical similarity, correlation structure, privacy, and downstream machine-learning utility. However, such evaluations leave a gap: they rarely test the structure that matters for analytical queries. We present TabQueryBench, a query-centric benchmark that uses SQL-shaped analytical queries as structural assessors for synthetic data fidelity. It provides an extensible foundation for query-centric synthetic-data evaluation. From 12 public sources of analytical queries, TabQueryBench taxonomizes recurring cross-domain logic into 44 reusable query templates and grounds them to each dataset via a policy-guided template-to-SQL pipeline. This makes queries schema-aware while preserving comparability across generative models. Across 49 datasets and 11 generative models, it activates 10-12 templates per dataset, producing more than 100 executable SQL queries per dataset. Our systematic experiments show five main patterns. First, current tabular generative models can have good distance-based fidelity, but they still fall short on query-centric fidelity: RealTabFormer achieves the highest query-centric fidelity, but it only reaches 0.75 +/- 0.15 (REAL data score is 1.00). Second, tabular generative models struggle with very high-cardinality discrete support. Third, SOTA generative models preserve good global conditional query-centric fidelity, but fail more on local queries. Fourth, tail fidelity deteriorates as queries move toward the extreme tail; even the best model recovers only about 40.7% of real rare values. Finally, there is a fidelity-cost tradeoff in tabular generation: BayesNet offers the strongest tradeoff, with slightly lower query-centric fidelity but much lower generation cost.