Self-Distillation is Optimal Among Spectral Shrinkage Estimators in Spiked Covariance Models

Robust linear fits can resist response contamination yet remain too dense or unstable for useful global explanations. We propose penalized distillation, which fits a smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) estimator to a robust initial estimator's empirical fitted surface along a safeguarded coordinate-descent path and evaluates candidate states separately for fidelity, parsimony, perturbation stability, and held-out prediction. The new results attach to the states the algorithm actually computes. Conditional on a fixed uncontaminated design, deterministic bounds transfer response-replacement boundedness from the initial fit to every retained path state. Turning to fixed dimension, we characterize the oracle-support branch by its empirical-Gram projection and influence function, give conditions for covariance-weighted least-squares approximation equivalence, and establish a path-conditional generalized information criterion. By contrast, at large dimension-to-sample ratios the full-coordinate robust fit collapses without warning, and screening restores the construction. Under a sure-screening framework, the robustness bound and the support and selection guarantees transfer to the screened fit. Simulations separate robustness transfer from support recovery, efficiency, and computation across the dimension-to-sample ratio, with p up to 240, and the signal density, which isolates what the sparse stage adds once the screen over-selects. In a duplicate-grouped superconductivity study, the distilled estimator remains predictively stable under prespecified training-response shifts but retains 66.8--68.8 of 81 slopes. Stronger sparsification reduces the model to 12.6--14.0 slopes only at visible fidelity and prediction cost. Distillation therefore preserves predictive stability on these data without substantiating a compact coordinate-level explanation.

Modern generative models are increasingly trained using model-generated signals, creating both opportunities for self-improvement and risks of collapse. We study optimal self-distillation (SD) for rectified flow (RF): given a suboptimal teacher velocity field, can a student trained on a mixture of true RF velocities and teacher velocities provably improve the teacher? For linear RF with ridge regularization on fixed interpolation pairs, we prove an exact affine path identity, derive the optimal mixing coefficient in closed form, and show strict improvement in integrated velocity risk whenever the teacher risk is nonstationary along the regularization path. The optimal coefficient obeys a sign rule: positive mixing corrects under-regularized teachers, while negative mixing corrects over-regularized teachers. We also give one-shot generalized cross-validation (GCV) and validation tuning procedure that avoids grid search over mixing weights and repeated refitting. Combining this theorem with RF Wasserstein convergence bounds, we show that optimal self-distillation improves the velocity estimation terms controlling continuous-time and finite-step generation error. Experiments with Gaussian models, Gaussian mixtures, and image data show that optimal self-distillation improves velocity risk, mode recovery, and finite-step generation relative to both the teacher and pure distillation.

We recast classical shrinkage of high-dimensional covariance estimators as empirical risk minimization over a parametric stochastic interpolant between a source and a target distribution. This formalism recovers known shrinkage estimators as special cases and reveals three distinct mechanisms for reducing statistical risk: (i) Scheduling: the interpolant schedule determines the class of admissible covariances, and hence the achievable risk. (ii) Flow maps and couplings: whereas naive constructions amount to assuming independence between the distributions, specific coupling structures (e.g., solutions of optimal transport problems) can lower the empirical risk. Moreover, non-linear flow maps realizing such couplings free the interpolant covariance from the eigenbasis of the empirical estimate, enabling eigenvector regularization. (iii) Early stopping: estimators defined by integrating a regressed vector field afford an additional bias-variance trade-off through approximation of the true interpolant distribution. We then propose a neural estimator of the interpolant, together with an upper bound on its quadratic risk in terms of the interpolant approximation error, and validate both on synthetic experiments. Finally, we apply the estimator to real neuroimaging data, demonstrating the additional regularization power this approach offers in practice.