Lying Is Just a Phase: The Hidden Alignment Transition in Language Model Scaling

We study how correctness is assembled inside aligned language models, not only whether the final answer is right. Using layer-wise difference-in-differences (DiD) trajectories over polarity-controlled minimal pairs, we identify the wrong-dip: in mid layers (25-90% depth), internal preference transiently commits to the incorrect answer and is rescued only by late-layer correction. We verify this causally with patchscope-style activation transplantation across 17 models, three families, and 64x scale (0.5B-32B). Four findings follow. (1) Alignment amplification of the causal wrong-dip is recipe-specific and emergent: it emerges at 3B in Qwen2.5, remains high, and peaks at 32B (paired t up to 9.7), reverses in Llama-3-8B (t=-2.31), and sits between for Mistral-7B. (2) The dip predicts real compression failures: high-dip items are 3-7x more likely to flip under late-layer low-rank compression, block dropping, or structured pruning, while quantization flips are dip-blind, a double dissociation confirmed by late-layer ablation. (3) The dip is trainable: a LoRA fine-tune with a mid-layer wrong-margin penalty matches output-only SFT accuracy while cutting the causal dip by 67-70% and improving compression robustness; output-only SFT worsens the causal dip by up to 2.8x at perfect surface accuracy. (4) With controlled readouts, the phenomenon survives natural-language I/O: dip stratification of structural-damage failures is significant on naturalistic vignettes, and free-form fragility separates into a dip-auditable late-rescue layer and a dip-blind interface layer. Together, output-level correctness can hide a late-rescue process that governs compression risk, post-training quality, and evaluation distortion.

Do language models know when they are being tested? This question matters for AI safety: a model that recognises an evaluation context could alter its behaviour strategically, making downstream benchmarks harder to interpret. Using 11 models spanning Qwen 2.5, Gemma 2, and Llama 3.2, we find a systematic size-dependent shift in representational depth: in both Qwen 2.5 and Gemma 2, the layer at which evaluation-awareness is most linearly recoverable moves from late layers in smaller models to early layers in larger ones. This suggests that scale changes not only the strength of evaluation-awareness but also where it is most linearly recoverable in the network. This depth shift helps explain why within-family scaling trajectories are non-monotonic or inverse rather than smooth and family-general, showing that a simple universal power-law account is not supported under denser within-family sampling. Finally, white-box probe signals are consistently stronger than black-box behavioural expression, and the relationship between the two varies by family in ways not predicted by probe AUROC alone.

When a language model fails on surface-perturbed input (typos, OCR noise, homophones), "which layer is responsible" has three natural operationalizations: where representations diverge most (sensitivity), where restoring clean activations recovers the prediction (causality), and where a small adapter can repair the damage (compensatory capacity) - and we show these three layer maps dissociate. Across a five-model panel we identify two propagation regimes - spike-and-suppress (Phi-3.5, Gemma-2-9B) and late-accumulation (Llama-3, Mistral, Qwen2.5-7B) - and on the two models meeting an 80% identity-patch gate, sensitivity and causality are anti-correlated (rho = -0.72 to -0.88). Within-family scaling on Qwen2.5 (1.5B to 14B) shows the late-accumulation signature strengthening monotonically with scale, corroborated on a second family. We propose cascade disruption as the mechanism behind the dissociation: adapters placed at causally implicated early layers break intact downstream computation, making diagnostic-flagged sites the worst adapter placements. A fixed-harness layer sweep across four models (3.8-8B) confirms the core prediction on chain-of-thought GSM8K - the flagged sites are the most damaging adapter windows on every adjudicable model - and is sign-consistent but strongly attenuated on a multiple-choice control, consistent with damage that compounds with generation length. The sweep yields practical guidance: a training-free LRD pre-screen and a default-deepest placement rule, though absolute gains over no-adapter baselines remain small. Finally, apparent gains from a representation-stability loss reverse under an adequate generation budget - truncated chain-of-thought had been scored as empty - a methodological warning for any intervention evaluated on chain-of-thought tasks.