LLM-based user simulation is the primary mechanism for end-to-end agent evaluation, yet simulated users are poor proxies for real humans: unconstrained LLM defaults produce a Formalism Ceiling (style match rates of 6-8% against real users), while hand-crafted behavioral directives trigger Directive Amplification, where models hyper-interpret instructions into unnatural behavioral extremes that vary dramatically across simulator models. We present RealUserSim, the first user simulation framework grounded in real behavioral data. From 14,000+ authentic human-LLM conversations (WildChat), we extract 7,275 executable behavioral profiles and use them to ground LLM simulators. A fidelity benchmark (PT3) on 600 conversations across 71+ domains with anti-leakage controls shows that grounded simulation raises match rate from 24.2% to 45.3% across five behavioral dimensions. Agent evaluation on TauBench with 6 simulator models and extensive analysis shows that grounded simulation acts as a realistic stress test, surfacing three failure mechanisms invisible to cooperative simulators (mean -3.2% to -3.5% task success degradation), while Directive Amplification in existing benchmarks produces unrealistic behavior that compromises the validity of agent evaluation.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: Linguistic trait clusters across 7,273 users. (a) t-SNE projection of 48-dimensional binary trait vectors with k -means clustering ( k=8 ). Each cluster represents a behavioral archetype (e.g., C7: Everyday Casual, C4: Formal Expert, C6: Informal Texter, C0: Organized Writer). (b, c) Age and education composition per cluster, showing systematic demographic shifts: casual/informal clusters skew younger and lower-education, while formal/structured clusters skew older and higher-education.
Table 1: Five dimensions of conversational identity used in the PT3 fidelity evaluation.
Baseline
With Profile
Δ
By dimension
Persona & Affective Traits
7.2
39.0
+31.8
Linguistic Style & Mechanics
6.2
26.2
+20.0
Tech Competency & Knowledge
93.3
93.2
− 0.2
Interaction & Data Flow
7.7
36.0
+28.3
Pacing & Action Sequencing
6.5
32.0
+25.5
Table 2: PT3 fidelity evaluation across 600 WildChat conversations. Match rate (%) indicates the proportion of cases where the LLM judge finds the simulated user indistinguishable from the real user. Top: aggregate by dimension. Bottom: by evaluation subset ( n=100 each).
User Type
Original
Baseline
With Profile
Informal student
“Class 6th ncert civics questions can u list three things that the government does which have not been mentioned”
“Hi there! I’m looking to understand more about the roles of government…Could you help me identify three such functions?”
“hey can u tell me 3 things the government does that arent in the class 6 civics book? easy words pls”
ESL speaker
“well i believe there are many differences between between two types of study for example for example hmm through face to face teaching, hmm students can students have…”
“Hi there! I have a piece of text that I’d like to revise for clarity and accuracy…”
“well hmm i need a lil help with something can you help me revise a context i got hmm it needs to be more clear and accurate you know…”
Medical student
“.which of the following therapies is most likely to prolong survival in COPD? a) atenolol b) enalapril c) Oxygen d) prednisone e) theophylline”
“Hi there! I recently asked a question about ‘Pulsus bisferiens’…I’m looking for a similar type of question…”
“.the pulse characteristic known as ‘water-hammer pulse’ is associated with which of the following conditions: a) mitral stenosis b) aortic regurgitation…”
Table 3: Contrastive examples of user simulation fidelity. The Baseline normalizes diverse communication styles into polished prose; profile injection preserves distinctive patterns.
Airline ( n=50 )
Retail ( n=114 )
Model
Orig
NP
Persona
Δ
Orig
NP
Persona
Δ
GPT-4o
52.0
50.0
41.3
− 8.7
60.5
77.2
74.0
− 3.2
GPT-5-mini
42.0
48.0
46.0
− 2.0
49.1
50.9
56.6
+5.7
GPT-5
46.0
48.0
44.7
− 3.3
75.4
77.2
71.6
− 5.6
Llama 3-70b
56.0
54.0
44.0
− 10.0
64.0
69.3
63.2
− 6.1
gpt-oss-20b
44.0
38.0
45.3
+7.3
53.5
63.2
47.7
− 15.5
Table 4: Agent task success rates (%) across Airline ( n=50 ) and Retail ( n=114 ) domains. Persona averages 3 independent runs with different random persona–task assignments. Δ shows change from NP baseline.
Figure 2: Two key effects on agent task success rate across 6 simulator models. (a) Persona injection (NP → Persona) degrades most models in both domains (mean −3.2% Airline, −3.5% Retail), confirming that real user communication styles add meaningful friction. (b) Stripping behavioral directives (Original → NP) consistently improves Retail performance (all 6 models, up to +16.7% ), indicating that hand-crafted directives introduce artificial difficulty.
Mechanism
Description
Example
Information loss
Terse persona omits critical task details
Airline Task 42: NP says “cancel FDZ0T5 and HSR97W …don’t modify other passengers.” Terse persona says “proceed with cancelling the reservations as listed.” Agent over-cancels 4 instead of 2.
Agent misinterpretation
Aggressive style triggers wrong agent action
Airline Task 27: NP requests compensation, receives $150 certificate. ALL-CAPS persona writes “GIMME A REFUND PLS” —agent interprets as cancellation request.
Compliance failure
Agreeable persona fails adversarial scenario
Airline Task 47: Must insist on refund 5 × then give up without cancelling . Hesitant persona says “ahh yes please go ahead and cancel it” on first attempt.
Table 5: Three failure mechanisms from persona injection, identified by comparing NP (pass) vs. Persona (fail) trajectories.
Model
Metric
With Directives
Without (NP)
Llama 3-70b
Roleplay markers
8.6%
0.9%
Stage directions
1.5%
0.0%
GPT-5-mini
Frustration words
16.7%
2.1%
Avg message length
1218 chars
514 chars
gpt-oss-20b
Roleplay markers
19.4%
10.9%
Frustration words
8.2%
2.0%
Table 6: Behavioral metrics with and without directives. Roleplay markers are asterisk-bracketed actions (e.g., sobbing ). Theatrical behavior drops sharply when directives are stripped.
Figure 3: Demographic distributions across 7,273 WildChat users. The population skews young (72% under 35) and educated (57% bachelor’s degree). Gender and occupation have low coverage (12.6% and 8.2%) as they are rarely self-disclosed; education has the highest coverage (88.2%) due to inference.
Figure 4: Profile statistics across 7,273 users. Left: most profiles contain 8–10 commands (mean 9.4). Center: 66% of users have only a single conversation; the distribution follows a power law. Right: demographic completeness is low (mean 0.25), as most users have only 1–2 fields populated.
Figure 5: Conversation domain distribution (top 25 of 1,012 domains). Entertainment & Media dominates at 20.8%, followed by a cluster of technical domains (Technology & IT, Software Development, Game Development) each around 5–6%. The long tail spans 1,000+ niche domains.
Metric
GPT-4o
GPT-5-mini
GPT-5
Llama 3
oss-20b
Claude 3
Avg msg len (chars)
122
494
382
373
223
218
Avg msgs/conv
6.8
5.1
5.9
6.5
5.9
6.7
Contains “please”
24%
69%
54%
55%
32%
19%
Has lists
0.2%
32%
43%
2%
8%
2%
Multi-line ( ≥ 3)
1%
72%
69%
34%
18%
23%
Has emotes
0%
1%
1%
1%
10%
0%
Appendix
Table 8: Quantitative metrics for model default personas under the NP condition.
Model
NP
High-Edu
Low-Edu
Young
Oldest
Perfect
GPT-4o
77.2
69.3
67.5
66.7
73.7
80.7
GPT-5-mini
50.9
53.5
62.3
48.2
57.0
71.1
GPT-5
77.2
80.7
71.9
69.3
78.1
75.4
Llama 3-70b
69.3
71.9
61.4
65.8
61.4
66.7
gpt-oss-20b
63.2
58.8
43.0
49.1
47.4
58.8
Claude 3 Sonnet
72.8
76.3
77.2
74.6
72.8
71.1
Appendix
Table 9: Demographic persona results, Retail domain ( n=114 ). All values are task success rates (%).
Model
NP
High-Edu
Low-Edu
Young
Oldest
Perfect
GPT-4o
50.0
46.0
50.0
50.0
52.0
46.0
GPT-5-mini
48.0
36.0
48.0
39.2
38.0
42.0
GPT-5
48.0
40.0
40.0
46.0
48.0
50.0
Llama 3-70b
54.0
50.0
40.0
58.0
46.0
46.0
gpt-oss-20b
38.0
44.0
44.0
46.0
34.0
36.0
Claude 3 Sonnet
52.0
48.0
58.0
48.0
46.0
54.0
Appendix
Table 10: Demographic persona results, Airline domain ( n=50 ). All values are task success rates (%).
Figure 6: Persona sampling variance across three independent random runs (v7, v8, v9) with different persona–task assignments. Dashed line shows the NP baseline. Shaded region indicates the per-model range. Mean range is 8.0% for Airline and 5.9% for Retail.
Figure 7: Demographic-based persona sampling. High-Edu and Oldest personas generally outperform Low-Edu and Young in Retail, while Airline shows more varied patterns.
Figure 8: Perfect User vs. other conditions. The Perfect User consistently outperforms random personas in Retail (5/6 models), with GPT-5-mini showing the largest gain ( +20.2% vs. NP).