Robust OT-Guided Generative Residual Domain Adaptation for Bike-Sharing Demand Prediction under Temporal Domain Shift

Accurate station-level demand forecasting is essential for the efficient operation of bike-sharing systems, yet it remains challenging due to complex spatio-temporal dependencies and the large scale of urban networks. This paper presents STAGformer, a Spatio-Temporal Agent Graph Transformer that achieves efficient global modeling with linear computational complexity. The model introduces a two-step agent attention mechanism, where a small set of learnable spatial and temporal agent tokens first aggregate global information and then broadcast it back to individual stations and time steps, effectively capturing long-range interactions while reducing the quadratic cost of standard self-attention to O(NT). STAGformer integrates four core modules: a spatio-temporal encoder that fuses dynamic node features with external contextual factors (weather, time, points of interest), a graph propagation module for spatial neighbor aggregation, a temporal convolution module for local pattern extraction, and the agent attention module for global dependency modeling. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets -- NYC Citi-Bike and Chicago Divvy-Bike -- demonstrate that STAGformer consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across multiple prediction horizons, achieving significant improvements in both RMSE and MAE. Ablation studies validate the contribution of each component, with the agent attention mechanism proving critical for modeling global spatio-temporal dependencies.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) aims to align a model to shifting test domains using only unlabeled streaming data. Most existing methods implicitly infer a single global domain distribution, ignoring the multidimensional and sample-specific nature of real-world domain shifts, leading to fragile adaptation. We propose DOME, an effective domain encoder that explicitly models each sample's domain in a zero-shot manner. DOME leverages vision-language pretraining to extract dense, continuous representations, parameterizes domains as distributional variables, and introduces a momentum-updated sparse domain bank for disentangled supervision. By injecting these explicit domain cues into downstream models, even a basic entropy-minimization TTA strategy achieves state-of-the-art performance across ImageNet-C, ImageNet-R, and ImageNet-Sketch, outperforming complex TTA approaches. Our results demonstrate that robust adaptation stems not from intricate adaptation algorithms, but from explicit, structured domain representation.

Urban bike-sharing systems require strategic station expansion to meet growing demand. Traditional allocation approaches rely on explicit demand modelling that may not capture the urban characteristics distinguishing successful stations. This study addresses the need to exploit patterns from existing stations to inform expansion decisions, particularly in data-constrained environments. We present a data-driven framework leveraging existing stations deemed desirable by operational metrics. A hybrid denoising autoencoder (HDAE) learns compressed latent representations from multi-source grid-level features (socio-demographic, built environment, and transport network), with a supervised classification head regularising the embedding space structure. Expansion candidates are selected via greedy allocation with spatial constraints based on latent-space similarity to existing stations. Evaluation on Trondheim's bike-sharing network demonstrates that HDAE embeddings yield more spatially coherent clusters and allocation patterns than raw features. Sensitivity analyses across similarity methods and distance metrics confirm robustness. A consensus-based procedure across multiple parametrisations distils 32 high-confidence extension zones where all parametrisations agree. The results demonstrate how representation learning captures complex patterns that raw features miss, enabling evidence-based expansion planning without explicit demand modelling. The consensus procedure strengthens recommendations by requiring agreement across parametrisations, while framework configurability allows planners to incorporate operational knowledge. The methodology generalises to any location-allocation problem where existing desirable instances inform the selection of new candidates.