Asymmetric Scaling Laws from Sparse Features

Neural scaling laws are foundational for language model development, yet standard formulations systematically under- and overestimate loss at data-scarce and overtraining extremes. This failure originates in the underlying assumption that model size and training data impact the loss independently. To address this, we introduce the Skaling law, a generalized functional form that couples model capacity and data through a single interaction exponent. This simple extension reduces the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) by 1.5-3x across both interpolation and extrapolation regimes. When paired with a sparse grid strategy restricted to low-compute regimes, the Skaling law achieves accurate full-grid extrapolation using approximately 10x less compute than uniform sweeps. By enabling reliable performance prediction from small-scale experiments, the Skaling law provides a more robust and resource-efficient framework for allocating compute budgets in next-generation model training.

Neural scaling laws describe predictable power-law relationships between model size, dataset size, compute, and performance. While these laws guide the development of modern foundation models, the mechanisms underpinning them remain poorly understood, in part due to the absence of scalable analysis tools. To close this gap, we introduce "spectral position": a scalable measure of which eigenvalues of the empirical neural tangent kernel (eNTK) currently drive loss reduction. Applying this measure to scaling experiments, we find that spectral position decreases throughout training: learning shifts from dominant eigenmodes into the spectral tail. Larger models reach further into the tail than smaller models, revealing a size-dependent capacity we call "spectral reach". This suggests why larger models achieve lower losses: they sustain learning on weak spectral signals inaccessible to smaller models. We further identify feature learning as a key enabler of spectral reach. It adaptively amplifies gradient magnitudes as learning advances, sustaining progress where frozen representations stall. This points to concrete interventions through architecture and optimizer design.

Training compute is increasingly outpacing the availability of high-quality data. This shifts the central challenge from optimal compute allocation to extracting maximum value from limited data. The widely adopted Chinchilla scaling law assumes every training token is unique. This limits its ability to guide pretraining decisions in data-constrained regimes. We model the excess loss under repetition with a simple additive overfitting penalty and find that it accurately describes model behavior. Our scaling law yields qualitatively new compute-optimal allocation advice. Beyond a point, further repetition is counterproductive and compute is better spent on model capacity. We show that following our law's recommended configuration improves performance in data-constrained regimes. Finally, because our one-parameter form isolates overfitting in a single coefficient, it enables direct comparison across training configurations. As a case study, we show that strong weight decay ($λ=1.0$) reduces this coefficient by approximately 70%, providing a scaling-law explanation for recent findings that optimal weight decay in data-constrained regimes is an order of magnitude larger than standard practice.