WhenLoss: Diagnosing Write and Retrieval Bottlenecks in Long-Context Memory Systems

Memory-Mediated Learning Architecture (MMLA) separates slow base parameters theta, a bounded numerical policy carrier Phi, and a bounded authoritative memory M. Predictive Dual-State Adaptation (PDSA) lets feedback update Phi while one problem remains active and lets a trusted lifecycle atomically commit one typed row or exact NULL. Later reasoning may read both states, but their writers, resets, rollback domains, and ledgers remain distinct. Realized futures supervise values only during training; deployment is causal and future-blind. We give conditional theory and falsifiable contracts for reasoning-time updates, completed-segment consolidation, predictive admission, authoritative memory, and dual-state attribution. Assumptions, counterexamples, capacity and cost ledgers, recovery duties, and identifying experiments are explicit; these are not implementation guarantees. Controlled studies show exact lifecycle execution on 300/300 held-out records for each of three seeds, calibrated retrieval gains over frozen-hidden dense and BM25 baselines, and exact typed anchor-filler transport on 240/240 held-out records per seed. These validate restricted components, not natural-language memory management or complete PDSA. Post-training studies retain positive and negative evidence. Later protocols obtain restricted readout progress, but a nine-trajectory comparison finds that matched latent readout, a full-width bridge, and bridge plus frozen text-teacher alignment all fail continuous-event qualification across both task families. A separately adapted text reference and restoration checks pass. At the September 13, 2026 evidence cutoff, no strict policy-only reasoning-time-training effect, predictive-admission oracle margin, learned future-blind admission policy, or policy-by-memory factorial advantage is established.

Long-term LLM agents must compress streams of past interactions into persistent memory before future queries are known. Existing evaluations usually measure final question-answering accuracy, which entangles memory writing with retrieval, prompting, and reader reasoning. We introduce MEMAUDIT, an exact packageoracle evaluation protocol for budgeted long-term memory writing. A MEMAUDIT package fixes an experience stream, candidate memory representations, storage costs, semantic evidence units, future-query requirements, and a budget, turning write-time memory selection into a finite auditable optimization problem with a certified denominator. We instantiate this protocol with a concave-over-modular semantic coverage objective under storage and one-representation-per-experience constraints, and compute exact package optima using branch-and-bound with MILP certification. Across controlled exact packages, validity-heavy stress tests, human-audited natural support slices, and exported Mem0, A-Mem, and Letta stores, MEMAUDIT separates representation quality, validity-state preservation, and budget-aware selection effects that end-to-end QA cannot localize. The resulting artifact provides reusable package generators, certified solvers, natural package exports, external-system scorers, and cached reproducibility metadata for evaluating what memory writers actually preserve under fixed storage budgets.

Efficient long-term conversational memory requires retrieving sufficient evidence without indiscriminately expanding the context presented to the language model. This is challenging because relevant evidence may be distributed across multiple sessions, while compression may discard details needed for answering. Different queries therefore require different forms of memory access. To capture these demands, we formulate memory access along two dimensions: discovery breadth, which controls how broadly evidence is searched, and reading fidelity, which controls whether evidence is read in compact form or recovered from the original conversation. Based on this formulation, we introduce JustMem, which stores conversation history as compact atomic memories and adapts memory access along these two dimensions to each query. Specifically, LOOKUP handles local evidence, COMPOSE broadens discovery for distributed evidence, and REPLAY increases reading fidelity for fidelity-sensitive evidence. On LoCoMo and LongMemEval-S, JustMem achieves the highest mean accuracy and retrieval recall among the compared memory systems while using substantially fewer generative-model tokens for memory construction and inference.