Abstract
Cross-lingual transfer in language models is difficult to study in natural corpora because lexical overlap, morphology, data imbalance, and tokenization are entangled. We introduce an in-vitro framework with two procedurally generated languages that share the same ontology, typed grammar, and compositional structure, but differ in surface realization. This lets us independently vary lexical distance, minority-language proportion, tokenizer training regime, and vocabulary size, while evaluating transfer on a masked minority-language condition whose lexical forms are never observed during training. Across 700 controlled runs, we find that transfer is governed less by tokenizer balance or raw lexical similarity than by whether tokenization preserves reusable cross-lingual substructure. Smaller vocabularies often improve masked transfer by keeping words decomposable into shared fragments, whereas larger vocabularies can turn forms into language-specific atoms. We further show that transfer emerges as a staged process: grammatical and type-level competence precede masked lexical generalization. Finally, we attempt to explain this mechanism through tokenizer bridges and show that bridge strength correlates strongly with masked reachability.
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Cross-lingual transfer is a model's ability to generalize capabilities from well-represented source languages to under-represented target languages. Existing measures of a model's transfer strength conflate improvements in transfer with general improvements to accuracy in the source language. We advocate for an alternate metric that reliably captures transfer strength called Hardness Adjusted Transfer (HAT) Score, and use it to derive multiple insights on factors influencing transfer strength. Our analysis across twenty diverse language models and three popular mainstream multilingual benchmarks argues that 1) transfer in small models is not broken, 2) we are making slower than expected progress in cross-lingual transfer with model size, and 3) we have made clear progress over time.
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