Uncertainty quantification (UQ) remains a critical challenge in Large Vision Language Models (LVLMs) for reliable predictions and real-world deployment. However, most existing methods are adapted from the LLM literature and primarily focus on the language modality, leaving the contribution of visual information to LVLM uncertainty largely underexplored. In this paper, we investigate how LVLMs process visual information and whether this process can be used to improve uncertainty estimation. By analyzing hidden representations after the integration of visual features during the generation process, we observe that high-confidence predictions rely more heavily on visual content than uncertain ones. Building on this insight, we propose Visual-Grounded Token UQ (VIG-TUQ), a training-free framework that explicitly incorporates visual grounding into uncertainty estimation by weighting token-level language uncertainty with visual grounding scores. We evaluate VIG-TUQ on multiple datasets and across diverse LVLM architectures, including early-fusion, late-fusion, and native-fusion models. Results indicate that our method often improves upon existing token-level uncertainty approaches. Code and data will be made available upon acceptance.
Vision-language models (VLMs) are playing an increasingly important role across multiple domains. In many applications, such as robotics, it is crucial to quantify the uncertainty in the output of these models. } We develop FUSE, a probabilistic framework for capturing two complementary sources of uncertainty in vision-language modeling: (i) aleatoric embedding-level uncertainty derived from input data vision-language ambiguity, and (ii) epistemic model-level uncertainty estimated from the semantic response diversity of VLMs. Our approach formulates a Bayesian fusion mechanism that analytically combines these uncertainty sources to produce a scalar measure of uncertainty. This measure can be used to reliably predict the model's output correctness for downstream applications. We demonstrate that our method outperforms baselines and achieves SOTA uncertainty calibration.
Vision-language models can produce confident answers on visually ambiguous inputs, resulting in biased predictions. Common entropy-based methods, such as Semantic Entropy (SE), rely on output diversity. Yet our analysis shows that overconfident visual embeddings suppress output diversity under stochastic decoding, causing SE to underestimate uncertainty in such cases. Recent methods instead probe output diversity through input perturbations, including textual paraphrasing or joint text-image perturbations, and show improved performance. We study these approaches and reveals that the resulting variability is often dominated by textual changes rather than visual evidence, causing uncertainty estimates to reflect prompt sensitivity rather than visual ambiguity. We therefore propose Visual Semantic Entropy (VSE), which perturbs only the image to probe nearby visual variations while keeping the text query fixed. VSE measures uncertainty by clustering generated answers into semantic prototypes and computing the mass-weighted dispersion among them. Extensive evaluation across five modern vision-language models and five diverse VQA benchmarks demonstrates that VSE effectively captures visual ambiguity, establishing a new state-of-the-art for VLM uncertainty estimation.
Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) often produce plausible but unreliable outputs, making robust uncertainty estimation essential. Recent work on semantic uncertainty estimates relies on external models to cluster multiple sampled responses and measure their semantic consistency. However, these clustering methods are often fragile, highly sensitive to minor phrasing variations, and can incorrectly group or separate semantically similar answers, leading to unreliable uncertainty estimates. We propose Semantic Gaussian Process Uncertainty (SGPU), a Bayesian framework that quantifies semantic uncertainty by analyzing the geometric structure of answer embeddings, avoiding brittle clustering. SGPU maps generated answers into a dense semantic space, computes the Gram matrix of their embeddings, and summarizes their semantic configuration via the eigenspectrum. This spectral representation is then fed into a Gaussian Process Classifier that learns to map patterns of semantic consistency to predictive uncertainty, and that can be applied in both black-box and white-box settings. Across six LLMs and LVLMs on eight datasets spanning VQA, image classification, and textual QA, SGPU consistently achieves state-of-the-art calibration (ECE) and discriminative (AUROC, AUARC) performance. We further show that SGPU transfers across models and modalities, indicating that its spectral representation captures general patterns of semantic uncertainty.