Large Language Model Uncertainty

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12 papers in the last four weeks, up 50% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

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Single-Pass Uncertainty Heads for Claim-Level Hallucination Detection in Persian Medical Language Models
Oct 2, 2026Mehrdad Ghassabi, Pedram Rostami, Hamidreza Baradaran Kashani +2Large Language Model Uncertainty
Faculty of Computer Engineering University of Isfahan Isfahan, Iran · School of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Tehran Tehran, Iran · School of Computer Science University of Windsor Windsor, Canada +1
Verbalized and Internal Probabilities Are Coupled in Large Language Models
Sep 30, 2026Sinead Williamson, Jiaxuan Li, Nick Foti +2Large Language Model Uncertainty Probability
Apple
Alleviating Hallucination in Reasoning Tasks with Training-Free Uncertainty-Guided Steering
Sep 30, 2026Litian Liu, Qiqi Hou, Yubing Jian +5Large Language Model Hallucination Large Language Model Uncertainty
Qualcomm AI Research · UC Santa Barbara
Probability is Not Enough: Exploring and Counting Divergent Tokens for Reasoning Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs
Sep 29, 2026Feiyang Li, Shengjing Liu, Qi Zhan +7Large Language Model Uncertainty Confidence Calibration
College of Computer Science and Software Engineering, Shenzhen University · Tsinghua University · Behavioral and Spatial AI Lab, Peking University & Tongji University
XU-RS: Explaining Credal Width in Random-Set Language Models
Sep 29, 2026David Achara, Maryam Sultana, Alexander D. Rast +1Large Language Model Uncertainty Uncertainty Score
Institute for AI, Data Analysis and Systems (AIDAS) Oxford Brookes University
TRACE: Single-Pass Decoding-Trace Risk Localization for Generation Calibration
Sep 28, 2026Yuebin Xu, Xuemei Peng, Junlan Chen +2Large Language Model Uncertainty Conformal Risk Control
The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)
Jailbreaks for Black-Box Uncertainty Quantification in Large Reasoning Models
Sep 28, 2026Lucas Biechy, Cédric Eichler, Adrien Boiret +1Large Language Model Uncertainty Large Reasoning Models
Petscraft, Inria · Université Paris-Saclay · INSA CVL +2
Semantic Uncertainty Quantification Needs Factual Equivalence
Sep 28, 2026Joseph Hoche, Quentin Guimard, Gianni FranchiLarge Language Model Uncertainty Uncertainty
AMIAD, Pˆole Recherche Palaiseau, France
Audio LLMs Know When They Can't Hear You
Sep 24, 2026Amirhosein Javadi, Richa Dixit, Mehrdad Farajtabar +3Large Audio Language Models Transcription
Apple · University of California San Diego
Pinocchio: Fast Uncertainty Estimates for Black-Box Language Models
Sep 21, 2026Kevin David Hayes, Arka Pal, Haosong Zhang +2Large Language Model Uncertainty Uncertainty
Department of Computer Science, University of Maryland · Ritual AI · Fudan University +1
ENCP: Episode-Normalized Conformal Prediction for Vision-and-Language Navigation
Sep 15, 2026Vicky Feliren, A. Taufiq Asyhari, Muhamad Risqi U. SaputraVision-Language Navigation Large Language Model Uncertainty
Monash University, Indonesia
From Answers to Interpretations: Rethinking Ambiguity-Induced Aleatoric Uncertainty Estimation in LLMs
Sep 7, 2026Omer Nahum, Niv Nayman, Jonathan Fhima +4Large Language Model Uncertainty Ambiguity
Data and Decision Sciences, Technion, Israel · Amazon Web Services · Computer Vision Group, University of Bern, Switzerland
BiG-SURE - Bipartite Graph for Semantic Uncertainty and Reliability Estimation of LLMs
Aug 31, 2026Debarpan Bhattacharya, Malay Phadke, Sriram GanapathyLarge Language Model Uncertainty Uncertainty Quantification
LEAP Lab, Electrical Engineering, Indian Institute of Science · TANUH AI Centre of Excellence, Indian Institute of Science
Credal Large Language Models for Semantic Commitment under Uncertainty
Aug 24, 2026Shireen Kudukkil Manchingal, Sofiia Nikolenko, Fabio CuzzolinLarge Language Model Uncertainty Cryptographic Merkle Tree Commitments
Oxford Dynamics Oxford · Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München Munich · Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Data Analysis and Systems (AIDAS) School of Engineering Computing & Mathematics Oxford Brookes University, Oxford, UK
PropUQ-MAS: Propagation-Aware Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Multi-Agent Systems
Aug 22, 2026Yaokun Liu, Yifan Liu, Daniel Yue Zhang +3Uncertainty Quantification Large Language Model Uncertainty
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign · Scale AI
Asymptotic Risk Calibration for Selective Question Answering
Aug 12, 2026Shufan Lin, Sijin DongLarge Language Model Uncertainty Conformal Risk Control
Zhangjiang University · Ibaraki University
CLAIM: Leading Open-domain Active Clarification of Large Language Models with Uncertainty Measurement
Aug 12, 2026Kuangzhao Yang, Ziliang Zhao, Zhicheng DouClarification Large Language Model Uncertainty
Gaoling School of Artificial Intelligence, Renmin University of China Beijing, China
Beyond Single-Turn Confidence: Trajectory-Adapted Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Agents
Aug 12, 2026Dylan Bouchard, Mohit Singh ChauhanLarge Language Model Uncertainty Large Language Model Agents
Attention-Path Fragility as an Uncertainty Signal in Large Language Models
Aug 11, 2026Minsoo Kim, Sungyoung Ji, Kisung Moon +1Large Language Model Uncertainty Semantic Entropy
POSCO Holdings Future Technology Research Institute 440, Teheran-ro, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, Republic of Korea
Actionable Hallucination Detection: Translating Latent Uncertainty into Agentic Critique
Aug 11, 2026Sanidhya Vijayvargiya, Rahul LokeshCitation Hallucination Detection Large Language Model Uncertainty
Samsung Research America
ReCBM: Uncertainty-Gated Relational Reasoning for Concept Bottleneck Models
Aug 7, 2026An Sui, Yuzhu Li, Fuping Wu +1Concept Bottleneck Models Uncertainty-Aware Classification
School of Data Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, China · Institute of Science and Technology for Brain-Inspired Intelligence, Fudan University, Shanghai, China. · National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
PPDL: LLM-Based Flows as Probabilistic Programs
Aug 5, 2026Louis Mandel, Guillaume Baudart, Mandana Vaziri +1Large Language Model Uncertainty Large Language Model Workflows
IBM, New York, USA · Université Paris Cité, Inria, CNRS, IRIF, France
UHP Detection: LVLMs have their Unique Hallucination Pattern in the Consistency Space
Aug 4, 2026Amir Mohammad Ezzati, Kiyan Rezaee, Bardiya Kariminia +4Citation Hallucination Detection Object Hallucination
Sharif University of Technology · Michigan State University · Shahid Beheshti University +2
DUD: Decoupled Update Dynamics for Reliable Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Models
Aug 4, 2026Yixin Bu, Runze Xia, Guanyun Zou +3Large Language Model Uncertainty Uncertainty Quantification
College of Artificial Intelligence, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, China · 2The Key Laboratory of Brain-Machine Intelligence Technology, Ministry of Education, Nanjing, China · 3Researcher
TrAC: Trace-Conditioned Answer Consistency for Efficient Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs
Aug 1, 2026Dahai Yu, Lin Jiang, Rongchao Xu +1Large Language Model Uncertainty LLM Reasoning Strategies
Florida State University Tallahassee, Florida, USA
Thinking Under Uncertainty: Evidence Use and Information-Seeking in Language Models
Jul 29, 2026Hua-Dong Xiong, Xinyuan Yan, Ji-An Li +3Large Language Model Uncertainty Large Language Model Decisions
School of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Georgia Tech · Department of Neurosurgery, Baylor College of Medicine · Department of Psychology, New York University +1
Runtime Uncertainty Monitoring for LLM-Based Multi-Agent Systems Using Bayesian Networks
Jul 28, 2026Bart Custers, Koorosh AslansefatLarge Language Model Uncertainty Multi-Agent Large Language Model Systems
University of Hull, Hull HU6 7RX, UK
Bigger or Cheaper? Scale and Quantization Effects on Uncertainty Signals in Vision-Language Models Under Image Degradation
Jul 27, 2026M M Asif FerdousLarge Language Model Uncertainty Quantized
Independent Researcher
Calibrating Semantic Uncertainty from Observable Language-Model Probabilities
Jul 20, 2026Matthew F. DixonLarge Language Model Uncertainty Calibrated Uncertainty
Artificial Intelligence Finance Institute (AIFI), 69 Charlton St, New York, NY 10014, USA
Beyond Semantic Equivalence: Logical Graphs for LLM Uncertainty Quantification
Jul 18, 2026Yanni Dong, Minghua Liu, Meilin Zhu +2Large Language Model Uncertainty Semantic Entropy
Institute of Intelligent Software, Guangzhou, China · Institute of Software, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China · University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
From Critic to Confidence: PPO for Language-Based Quantitative Prediction with Confidence Estimation
Jul 14, 2026Mehak Dhaliwal, Rasta Tadayon, Andong Hua +2Large Language Model Uncertainty Large Language Model Reinforcement Learning
University of California, Santa Barbara
Code-MUE: Measuring Code LLMs' Uncertainty through Execution-based Semantic Interaction Graphs
Jul 14, 2026Xiaoning Ren, Yinxing Xue, Lei Ma +1Large Language Model Uncertainty Input Uncertainties
Xi’an Jiaotong University, China · Institute of AI for Industries, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China · The University of Tokyo, Japan +1
Hallucination Detection in Large Language Models Using Diversion Decoding
Jul 11, 2026Basel Abdeen, S M Tahmid Siddiqui, Meah Tahmeed Ahmed +4Large Language Model Hallucination Hallucination Detection
The University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX 75080, USA · National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, USA · Carnegie Mellon University, PA, USA
Eigenvalue Calibration for Semantic Embeddings of Large Language Models
Jul 9, 2026Sebastian G. Gruber, Nassim Walha, Francis Bach +1Large Language Model Uncertainty Uncertainty Quantification
1ESAT-PSI, KU Leuven, Belgium · 2German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany · 3German Cancer Consortium (DKTK), Germany +3
Estimating Uncertainty from Reasoning: A Large-Scale Study of Multi- and Crosslingual MCQA Performance in LLMs
Jul 7, 2026Andrea Bacciu, Andrea Alfarano, Saab Mansour +2Large Language Model Uncertainty LLM Reasoning Strategies
Amazon · INSAIT, Sofia
SpanUQ: Span-Level Uncertainty Quantification for Large Language Model Generation
Jul 7, 2026Yimeng Zhang, Yingying Zhuang, Ziyi Wang +12Large Language Model Uncertainty Uncertainty Quantification
Amazon · Northeastern University
Uncertainty-Aware Abstention in Large Language Models with Provable Alignment Guarantees
Jul 5, 2026Sijin Dong, Hiroyuki ShinnouLarge Language Model Uncertainty Uncertainty Score
1Ibaraki University, Japan.
Evaluating LLM Uncertainty in Long-Form Generation Using Deterministic Ground Truth
Jul 4, 2026Ido Amit, Ido Galil, Ran El-YanivLarge Language Model Uncertainty Long-Form Generation
1Technion · 2Nvidia
Bayesian Sparse Low-Rank Adaptation for Large Language Model Uncertainty Estimation
Jul 2, 2026Jijie Zhang, Zhe Ren, Quan Zhang +1Large Language Model Uncertainty Training-Side Stage-Aware Low-Rank Adaptation
School of Artificial Intelligence, Jilin University · Michigan State University
Bayesian Uncertainty Propagation for Agentic RAG Pipelines: A Proof-of-Concept Study on Multi-Hop Question Answering
Jul 1, 2026Louis Donaldson, Connor Walker, Koorosh Aslansefat +1Large Language Model Uncertainty Uncertainty
University of Hull, Hull HU6 7RX, UK
CoMet: Context and Multiplicity Decomposition for Multimodal Uncertainty Estimation
Jun 30, 2026Sanghyuk Chun, William Yang, Amaya Dharmasiri +1Large Language Model Uncertainty Multimodal Large Language Models
Princeton University
Uncertainty-Aware Generation and Decision-Making Under Ambiguity
Jun 29, 2026Nico Daheim, Iryna GurevychLarge Language Model Uncertainty Decisions
Ubiquitous Knowledge Processing Lab (UKP Lab), Department of Computer Science, Technical University of Darmstadt · National Research Center for Applied Cybersecurity ATHENE, Germany
From Signals to Transfer: A Factorised Study of Probe-Based Uncertainty Estimation in Large Language Models
Jun 26, 2026Ponhvoan Srey, Xiaobao Wu, Cong-Duy Nguyen +3Large Language Model Uncertainty Uncertainty
Nanyang Technological University · Shanghai Jiao Tong University · VinUniversity +1
Uncertainty-aware reinforcement learning for chemical language models
Jun 23, 2026Borja Medina, Jon Paul JanetLarge Language Model Uncertainty Moleculenet
Molecular AI, Discovery Sciences, BioPharmaceuticals R&D AstraZeneca AB Gothenburg, Sweden
Beyond Logprobs: A Multi-Signal Confidence Engine for LLM-Based Document Field Extraction
Jun 23, 2026Nitesh KumarExtraction Confidence Estimation
1Perfios Software Solutions Pvt. Ltd.
The Origins of Stochasticity: Comprehensive Investigations on Uncertainty Quantification for Large Language Models
Jun 22, 2026Xiang-Jun Ou, Shuang Liang, Xin-Yu Hu +3Large Language Model Uncertainty Uncertainty Quantification
National Key Laboratory for Novel Software Technology, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210063, China. · School of Intelligent Science and Technology, Nanjing University, Suzhou 215163, China.
Confident but Conflicted: Internal Uncertainty and Cognitive Dissonance Resolution in LLMs
Jun 21, 2026Weihong Qi, Kristina LermanLarge Language Model Uncertainty
Indiana University Bloomington
Bayesian Adaptation Gym: A Benchmark for the Bayesian Low-Rank Adaptation of Multi-Modal Language Models
Jun 20, 2026Colin Samplawski, Ramneet Kaur, Manoj Acharya +2Large Language Model Adaptation Large Language Model Uncertainty
Neuro-Symbolic Computing and Intelligence Research Group, Computer Science Laboratory, SRI International
A Systematic Evaluation of Black-Box Uncertainty Estimation Methods for Large Language Models
Jun 18, 2026Jiayi Wang, Xu-Yao ZhangLarge Language Model Uncertainty Large Language Model Reliability
School of Advanced Interdisciplinary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China · State Key Laboratory of Multimodal Artificial Intelligence Systems, Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
Uncertainty Decomposition for Clarification Seeking in LLM Agents
Jun 17, 2026Gregory MatsnevLarge Language Model Uncertainty Clarification
AI Talent Hub, ITMO University Saint Petersburg 197101, Russia
Possible or Definite? A Benchmark for Evaluating Diagnostic Uncertainty Preservation in Clinical Text
Jun 16, 2026Hongbo Du, Zixin Lu, Jiaming QuLarge Language Model Uncertainty
Trine University · University of Michigan · Amazon
Uncertainty Is Not a Safety Net for Clinical VQA, but Can It Anticipate Model Failure?
Jun 15, 2026Arnisa Fazla, Alberto Testoni, Ameen Abu-Hanna +2Large Language Model Uncertainty Medical Visual Question Answering
Department of Medical Informatics, Amsterdam University Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. · Amsterdam Public Health, Methodology, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. · MaiNLP, Center for Information and Language Processing, LMU Munich, Germany. +1
SAGE: Answer-Conditioned Uncertainty Targets for Verbal Uncertainty Alignment
Jun 9, 2026Kaiwen Shi, Zheyuan Zhang, Yanfang YeLarge Language Model Uncertainty Uncertainty
University of Notre Dame
Code Is More Than Text: Uncertainty Estimation for Code Generation
Jun 8, 2026Yuling Shi, Caiqi Zhang, Yuexian Li +4Code Generation Large Language Model Uncertainty
Shanghai Jiao Tong University · University of Cambridge
Calibration of Structured Ignorance Certificates for Diagnosing Unknown Unknowns in Reasoning Models
Jun 7, 2026Subramanyam SahooLarge Language Model Uncertainty Large Reasoning Models
Independent Researcher.
LUNA-AD: Lightweight Uncertainty-Aware Language Model with Lifelong Learning for Autonomous Driving
Jun 7, 2026Ruoyu Yao, Pei Liu, Ruiguo Zhong +3Autonomous Driving Large Language Model Uncertainty
The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou), China
Personalized and Robust Proactive Robot Assistance with Uncertainty-Guided LLM Reasoning
Jun 7, 2026Alvaro Gonzalez, M. H. Hasan Shovo, Ali AyubHuman-Robot Interaction Large Language Model Uncertainty
Concordia University, Montreal, Quebec H3G 1M8, Canada
Integrating Local and Global Entropy for Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs
Jun 2, 2026Johanne Medina, Tianyi Zhou, Keivin Isufaj +2Large Language Model Uncertainty Uncertainty Quantification
Qatar Computing Research Institute, HBKU Doha, Qatar · KTH Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm, Sweden
Clustered Self-Assessment: A Simple yet Effective Method for Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Models
Jun 2, 2026Qi Cao, Takeshi Kojima, Andrew Gambardella +3Large Language Model Uncertainty Uncertainty Quantification
The University of Tokyo, Japan
FUSE: Quantifying Uncertainty in Vision-Language Models by Bayesian Fusing Epistemic and Aleatoric Uncertainty
Jun 1, 2026Harry Zhang, Luca CarloneLarge Language Model Uncertainty Uncertainty-Aware Fusion
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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Single-Pass Uncertainty Heads for Claim-Level Hallucination Detection in Persian Medical Language Models

Mehrdad Ghassabi, Pedram Rostami, Hamidreza Baradaran Kashani, Sadra Hakim+1

Faculty of Computer Engineering University of Isfahan Isfahan, Iran · School of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Tehran Tehran, Iran · School of Computer Science University of Windsor Windsor, Canada+1

Large Language Model Uncertainty

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Hallucination detection is particularly important for medical language models, but repeated-sampling approaches are expensive and existing uncertainty-head resources do not directly transfer to a new backbone and language. We adapt the LLM Uncertainty Head (LUH) framework to Aya-Expanse-8B-based Persian medical models, using Gaokerena-V and Gaokerena-R as two previously developed backbones. We first examine response variability on a 168-question Iranian medical entrance examination and observe substantially lower five-run consistency for Gaokerena-V than for Aya-Expanse-8B, whereas Gaokerena-R is comparable to Aya-Expanse-8B. We then construct two paired claim-level hallucination datasets directly in Persian, containing 1,600 responses for each backbone, and train lightweight claim-level heads on frozen backbone attention maps and token probabilities. On held-out test splits, the heads obtain PR-AUCs of 0.4820 and 0.4652, corresponding to 2.30 and 2.66 times their respective random baselines, and ROC-AUCs of 0.7852 and 0.7810. The heads require neither retrieval nor repeated sampling at inference time. These results provide an initial study of single-pass claim-level uncertainty estimation for Persian medical language models; the test splits are small and the labels are automatically generated.

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