Architecture-driven Shift: towards a lightweight selector for capturing the trends of logit shift
Authors: Zhong Ye, Yu Hu, Ruilin Tang
Organizations: School of Computer Science and Technology Guangdong University of Technology Guangzhou, China · School of Computer Science and Engineering2026 South China University of Technology Guangzhou, China
Continual Learning (CL) is a practical paradigm to utilize power of deep pre-trained neural networks, but which pre-trained model has a better ability to balance ``Plasticity-Stability", deserving to be chosen? The logit shift serves as a natural proxy because it represents the logit shift in CL scenarios. However, obtaining the logit shift requires huge computational cost, which hinders large-scale model selection. Existing theoretical analyses fail to offer an efficient alternative because of the assumption of uniform hidden layer widths, which ignores the structural heterogeneity (variable width and depth) of real-world architectures. This raises a critical question: what theoretically relationship can be identified between heterogeneous architecture and logit shift on prior tasks (that the model has been trained on)? To answer the question, we decouple logit shift into architecture dependency and data dependency to establish our framework, which reveals that the combination of two dependency, defined as Architecture-driven Shift (ADS), that can capture the logit shift tendency well computable with few data samples. Specifically, for a well-optimized model on prior tasks, higher ADS is associated with a larger logit shift after training on the current task, which derived based on three mechanistic components: (1) spectral norm scaling of weight matrix gradients with layer width, (2) the optimization path length of the new task, and (3) the asymptotic task conflict in wide networks. Extensive empirical results across more than 175 diverse architectures demonstrate a strong monotonic correlation (the weakest Spearman's rs=0.731) between ADS and logit shift. Practically, we demonstrate that ADS can serve as a lightweight proxy of the expected calibration error, which is a widely used metric for reliable CL model selection, on three datasets across six scenarios.
Continual learning (CL) studies how models acquire tasks sequentially while retaining previously learned knowledge. Despite substantial progress in benchmarking CL methods, comparative evaluations typically keep the fine-tuning regime fixed. In this paper, we argue that the fine-tuning regime, defined by the trainable parameter subspace, is itself a key evaluation variable. We formalize adaptation regimes as projected optimization over fixed trainable subspaces, showing that changing the trainable depth alters the effective update signal through which both current task fitting and knowledge preservation operate. This analysis motivates the hypothesis that method comparisons need not be invariant across regimes. We test this hypothesis in task incremental CL, five trainable depth regimes, and four standard methods: online EWC, LwF, SI, and GEM. Across five benchmark datasets, namely MNIST, Fashion MNIST, KMNIST, QMNIST, and CIFAR-100, and across 11 task orders per dataset, we find that the relative ranking of methods is not consistently preserved across regimes. We further show that deeper adaptation regimes are associated with larger update magnitudes, higher forgetting, and a stronger relationship between the two. These results show that comparative conclusions in CL can depend strongly on the chosen fine-tuning regime, motivating regime-aware evaluation protocols that treat trainable depth as an explicit experimental factor.
Comparing stochastically trained models requires estimating both a performance difference and its uncertainty from repeated runs. We study whether training logs from those same runs can make such comparisons more precise. Because training-log covariates are produced during training rather than measured before it, we use arm-specific covariate adjustment: each model is adjusted only with statistics from its own runs, and the raw mean difference remains the reported effect. In a vision study spanning three architectures and three datasets, simple adjustments based on early training logs often reduce uncertainty in model comparisons. The main limitation is covariate selection. Broadly searching the log pool for the most correlated statistic often adds more noise than it removes, even when useful statistics exist in hindsight. Training logs therefore appear useful for more precise model comparisons, but only when the adjustment avoids large selection noise.
This technical note provides a first-order formalisation of the logit shift and fact-margin change induced by Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA). Using a first-order Fréchet approximation around the base model trajectory, we show that the multi-layer LoRA effect can be decomposed into a linear summation of layerwise contributions and a higher-order remainder term representing inter-layer coupling.