Probabilistic Data-Driven Modelling of Astrophysical Transients: The Neural Process Family for Ultrafast and Class-Agnostic Light Curve Reconstruction with NightLANP
Authors: Siddharth Chaini, Federica B. Bianco, Ashish Mahabal
Organizations: Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716, USA · University of Delaware, Data Science Institute, Newark, DE 19716, USA · Joseph R. Biden, Jr. School of Public Policy and Administration, University of Delaware, DE 19716, USA · Vera C. Rubin Observatory, Tucson, AZ 85719, USA · Division of Physics, Mathematics, and Astronomy, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA · Center for Data Driven Discovery, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA
Abstract
Astrophysical observations from Earth are subject to weather, environmental, and scientific constraints that lead to sparse, irregular light curves. On the eve of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, its dataset offers unprecedented opportunities for transient science. Yet a key challenge remains its cadence, sparse and irregular across six bands, limiting inference. Interpolation helps mitigate this, with Gaussian Processes the standard, but they struggle with cross-band correlations, require a priori kernel specification, and must be fit to each light curve individually, hence scaling poorly. Here, we introduce the neural process family for light curve reconstruction, combining the probabilistic framework of Gaussian Processes with the scalability of deep learning. By meta-learning on diverse simulated transients, Attentive Neural Processes shift the bulk of computation to training, enabling rapid, amortized inference with a class-agnostic model. Evaluated on realistic Rubin cadences across 15 transient classes, we show that even an unoptimized, out-of-the-box Attentive Neural Process consistently outperforms all benchmarks -- a suite of Gaussian Processes and neural networks -- on every tested metric, spanning regression quality, astrophysical feature recovery, and probabilistic calibration. Our model interpolates all bands simultaneously in microseconds, over four orders of magnitude faster than the next-best neural benchmark and five faster than Gaussian Processes, demonstrating the potential of neural processes for the nightly Rubin alert stream. Attentive Neural Processes avoid the overconfidence of standard neural networks and the underconfidence of Gaussian Processes, delivering sharp, well-calibrated uncertainties. This work establishes the neural process family as a scalable, probabilistic foundation for real-time transient science in the Rubin era.
We present a framework for detecting transient gamma-ray phenomena in a controlled environment by combining end-to-end simulations of the Fermi-LAT sky with self-supervised spatio-temporal deep learning. We generate a ten-year synthetic Universe with gtobssim and process the simulated events into daily all-sky maps of counts and exposure, obtaining a time-ordered sequence that mirrors the structure of Fermi-LAT observations. To model the nominal evolution of the sky, we employ a Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) network that operates directly on map sequences, preserving spatial locality while learning temporal dependencies. The model is trained to reconstruct expected emission, and departures from the learned baseline are quantified through pixel-wise mean-squared residual maps. We then define statistically motivated anomaly criteria by estimating per-pixel thresholds from the residual distribution on the training set, and we enforce spatial coherence via local filtering to suppress isolated fluctuations. The ConvLSTM is then deployed as trained predictor on Fermi-LAT daily maps, where the sky can depart from the nominal behavior because of genuine astrophysical variability and instrumental non-stationarities. The resulting pipeline flags localized, time-dependent excesses consistent with high-variable sources or transient events (e.g., flares or GRBs) and provides a benchmark for evaluating anomaly-detection strategies on long-duration, Fermi-LAT-like datasets.
Alberto Garinei, Stefano Speziali, Alessandro Vispa +11
The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman), set for launch as early as September 2026, will conduct wide-field infrared imaging surveys with unprecedented spatial resolution and cadence, enabling the discovery of millions of astronomical transients. Hence, it is necessary to have automated pipelines for generating alerts in place so that the telescope can begin discovering reliable transients and variable objects soon after it is launched. However, no real Roman data currently exist, making the development of such pipelines difficult. In this work, we present a machine learning model RuBR and a general methodology for distinguishing genuine transient and variable detections from spurious (bogus) detections within the RAPID pipeline. In particular, we present three models using this methodology: RuBRcomb trained and tested on combined locally injected and OpenUniverse2024 transients, RuBRloc trained on locally injected transients and tested on OpenUniverse2024 transients, and RuBRDA that combines locally injected transients with a fraction of OpenUniverse2024 transients in domain-adaptation mode for training. This paves the way for strategies to adapt the RuBRcomb model to real observations in the absence of any ground-truth labels during the early phases of the Roman mission. While the image differencing pipeline continues to be improved, our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and its promise for robust real-bogus classification in the Roman era.
Karan Gandhi, Ashish A. Mahabal, Jacob E. Jencson +6
Time-domain surveys generate many transient candidates, making Real-Bogus classification a critical step in automated discovery pipelines. Reliable labels are costly, while community labels can be noisy and survey-dependent. We aim to develop a Real-Bogus classification framework that can be trained without human-labeled data using injected transients and bogus-dominated survey data, remains robust under strong class contamination, and provides calibrated uncertainty quantification. We combine simulated transient injections with a contaminated survey class and train a dual-network model using asymmetric co-teaching for classes with different label-noise levels. We evaluate performance on a benchmark subset and analyze the learned representation with latent-space visualization tools. For uncertainty quantification (UQ), we compare MC dropout and deep ensembles and propose a low-cost hybrid strategy that exploits the dual-network setting to improve calibration. We extend the evaluation to the light-curve domain to assess recovery of light-curve classes. The method achieves strong Real-Bogus performance on the labeled subset and remains stable under severe class contamination. It recovers transient light-curve classes with high fidelity, while single-source identification is limited by ambiguity in light-curve-derived labels. Our hybrid UQ approach achieves competitive calibration relative to more expensive ensemble baselines. Latent-space analyses indicate that uncertainty aligns with the decision boundary and reveal subclasses within the bogus population. Our results show that injection-driven, weakly supervised training can enable scalable and consistent Real-Bogus classification without human-labeled training data while providing calibrated uncertainties. The method is suited for transfer to forthcoming surveys by re-running the injection-based training pipeline.
Raphaël Bonnet-Guerrini, Bruno Sanchez, Dominique Fouchez +5