Do Models Know Why They Changed Their Mind? Interpretability and Faithfulness of Chain-of-Thought Under Knowledge Conflict

Chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting assumes that generated reasoning reflects a model's internal computation. We show this assumption is wrong in a specific, measurable way: models internally detect their own reasoning errors but outwardly express confidence in them. A linear probe on hidden states predicts trace correctness with 0.95 AUROC -- from the very first reasoning step (0.79) -- while verbalized confidence for wrong traces is 4.55/5, nearly identical to correct ones (4.87/5). A text-surface classifier achieves only 0.59 on the same data, confirming a 0.20-point gap invisible in the generated text. This hidden error awareness holds across three model families (Qwen, Llama, Phi), 1.5B-72B parameters, and RL-trained reasoning models (DeepSeek-R1, 0.852 AUROC). The natural question is whether this signal can fix the errors it detects. It cannot. Four interventions -- activation steering, probe-guided best-of-N, self-correction, and activation patching -- all fail; patching destroys output coherence entirely. The signal is diagnostic, not causal: a readout of computation quality, not a lever to redirect it. This delineates a boundary for mechanistic interpretability: error representations during reasoning are fundamentally different from the factual knowledge representations that prior work has successfully edited.

Chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting is widely used as a reasoning aid and is often treated as a transparency mechanism. Yet behavioral gains under CoT do not imply that the model's internal computation causally depends on the emitted reasoning text, i.e. models may produce fluent rationales while routing decision-critical computation through latent pathways. We introduce a causal, layerwise audit of CoT faithfulness based on activation patching. Our key metric, the CoT Mediation Index (CMI), isolates CoT-specific causal influence by comparing performance degradation from patching CoT-token hidden states against matched control patches. Across multiple model families (Phi, Qwen, DialoGPT) and scales, we find that CoT-specific influence is typically depth-localized into narrow ''reasoning windows,'' and we identify bypass regimes where CMI is near-zero despite plausible CoT text. We further observe that models tuned explicitly for reasoning tend to exhibit stronger and more structured mediation than larger untuned counterparts, while Mixture-of-Experts models show more distributed mediation consistent with routing-based computation. Overall, our results show that CoT faithfulness varies substantially across models and tasks and cannot be inferred from behavior alone, motivating causal, layerwise audits when using CoT as a transparency signal.

Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning is useful for monitoring language models only when the reasoning trace faithfully reflects the computation that produces the final answer. However, models can rely on prompt-to-answer shortcuts that bypass the CoT, making the visible reasoning trace misleading even when it appears plausible. We study CoT faithfulness through a structural information-flow perspective: faithful reasoning should route answer-relevant information through the mediated path from prompt to CoT to answer, rather than through a direct prompt-to-answer shortcut. This perspective yields a task-agnostic framework based on three complementary properties, sufficiency, completeness, and necessity, which we instantiate with entropy-based, masked-KL, and gradient-based diagnostics. We show that these metrics recover externally judged faithfulness differences in hinted reasoning, and identify a low-entropy failure mode of KL-based diagnostics where gradient-based measures remain more stable. Building on this analysis, we introduce update-time interventions for verifier-based on-policy RL, including attention masking, backward-only gradient masking, CoT gradients, and adversarial perturbations of prompt representations. Across hinted arithmetic, reward-hackable code repair, and DAPO-Math models trained without hints but evaluated under wrong-hint injection, our interventions shift behavioral and structural indicators toward stronger CoT mediation. In particular, they make shortcut and reward-hacking behavior more transparent in the CoT and improve task-agnostic faithfulness metrics, while in some settings also reducing wrong-hint susceptibility. Our results suggest that controlling information flow during training is a practical route toward more faithful and monitorable CoT reasoning. Code is available at https://github.com/safety-research/faithful-cot.