The Importance of Being Statistically Earnest: A Critical Re-evaluation of GSM-Symbolic

Large Language Models (LLMs) achieve impressive accuracy on mathematical reasoning benchmarks, yet their performance drops when problems are modified with simple changes like different names or numbers. Code execution methods, which let models generate and run Python code instead of reasoning in natural language, have been proposed as a solution, but their effect on reasoning robustness (the ability to maintain accuracy across problem variations) has not been systematically tested. This study evaluates three approaches on 1,000 problems from the GSM-Symbolic dataset: pure reasoning using chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting, single-shot code execution using Program-Aided Language models (PAL), and iterative code execution using Step-by-Step Coding (SBSC). All three were run on paired original and modified problems using Claude Haiku 4.5. CoT was the most robust method, with an accuracy drop of 1.3 percentage points and 1.8% of problems breaking under perturbation. PAL was the least robust at 1.7 percentage points and 3.1% broke, with SBSC falling in between. Although these differences were not statistically significant ($p = .096$), the directional trend was consistent across all measures, suggesting that code execution, whether single-shot or iterative, does not improve reasoning robustness on grade-school-level problem variations.

Despite rapid advances in large language models (LLMs), statistical reasoning remains underrepresented in existing LLM benchmarks, which often do not reflect the layered, proof-driven nature of real statistical practice. To address this gap, we introduce \textbf{StatEval}, the first large-scale benchmark for statistical reasoning across curricular and research-level settings. StatEval includes over 100,000 curated problems, with 20,000+ foundational questions spanning undergraduate and graduate curricula and 80,000+ research-level proof tasks extracted from leading statistical journals. To construct StatEval, we develop \textbf{TRACE} (Topology and Reasoning-Aware Context Extractor), a multi-agent pipeline with human-in-the-loop validation that converts unstructured academic texts into self-contained theorem-level reasoning tasks. We also propose an Adaptive Process-Based Scoring Pipeline for complex statistical proofs, enabling fine-grained evaluation beyond final-answer matching. Experiments show that while LLMs perform reasonably on foundational tasks, they struggle with rigorous research-level reasoning. Beyond evaluation, StatEval serves as a resource for improving reasoning, as retrieval-augmented generation and domain-specific alignment consistently enhance performance. Together, these results establish StatEval as both a benchmark and an infrastructure for advancing statistical reasoning in LLMs.

Benchmarks like GSM8K are popular measures of mathematical reasoning, but leaderboard gains can overstate true capability due to memorization of fixed test sets. Most robustness variants apply surface-level perturbations (paraphrases, renamings, number swaps, distractors) that largely preserve the underlying facts, and static releases can themselves become memorization targets over time. We introduce GSM-SEM, a reusable and stochastic framework for generating semantically diverse benchmark variants with substantially higher semantic variance than prior approaches. GSM-SEM perturbs problem statements by modifying entities, attributes, and/or relationships, frequently altering underlying facts and requiring models to recompute solutions under new conditions, while constraining generation to preserve the original calculations/answer and approximate problem difficulty. GSM-SEM generates fresh variants on each run without requiring re-annotation, reducing reliance on static public benchmarks for evaluation and thereby lowering the bias of memorization. We apply GSM-SEM on GSM8K and two existing variation suites (GSM-Symbolic and GSM-Plus), producing GSM8K-SEM, GSM-Symbolic-SEM, and GSM-Plus-SEM. Evaluating 14 SOTA LLMs, we observe consistent performance drops with larger decline when semantic perturbations are coupled with symbolic/plus variations (average drop rate 28% in maximum strictness configuration of GSM-SEM). We publicly release the three SEM variants as fully human-validated datasets. Finally, to demonstrate applicability beyond GSM-style math problems, we apply GSM-SEM to additional benchmarks including BigBenchHard, LogicBench, and NLR-BIRD.