When and How Long? The Readout-Mediator Angle in Temporal Reasoning

Linear probing of large language model (LLM) hidden states is widely used to claim that models learn distinct representations for different reasoning types. We test this by probing Qwen3-14B on three benchmarks spanning the classical trichotomy: LogiQA 2.0 (deductive), ARC-Challenge (inductive), and $α$NLI (abductive). At layer 32 of 40, linear probes achieve 100% cross-validated accuracy with well-separated geometry (intrinsic dimensionalities: 20.6, 28.5, 33.6; convex hull contamination $\leq$1.5%). However, this separation is entirely driven by format confounds. Residualizing source identity, option count, and response length reduces accuracy to chance. Trace-anchor similarity indicates largely shared reasoning across tasks (42.5% agreement vs.\ 33.3% chance), and causal steering with random controls ($n=20$) shows no functional link between geometry and reasoning mode ($p=0.286$). Thus, high probe accuracy reflects task format rather than computational structure, motivating routine format deconfounding in mechanistic interpretability.

Probing has shown that language model representations encode rich linguistic information, but it remains unclear whether they also capture cognitive signals about human processing. In this work, we probe language model representations for human reading times. Using regularized linear regression on two eye-tracking corpora spanning five languages (English, Greek, Hebrew, Russian, and Turkish), we compare the representations from every model layer against scalar predictors -- surprisal, information value, and logit-lens surprisal. We find that the representations from early layers outperform surprisal in predicting early-pass measures such as first fixation and gaze duration. The concentration of predictive power in the early layers suggests that human-like processing signatures are captured by low-level structural or lexical representations, pointing to a functional alignment between model depth and the temporal stages of human reading. In contrast, for late-pass measures such as total reading time, scalar surprisal remains superior, despite its being a much more compressed representation. We also observe performance gains when using both surprisal and early-layer representations. Overall, we find that the best-performing predictor varies strongly depending on the language and eye-tracking measure.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) introduce new opportunities for safety monitoring through their Chain of Thought (CoT) reasoning. However, CoT is not always faithful to the model's final output, undermining its reliability as a monitoring tool. To address this, we investigate the hidden representations of LRMs to determine whether future behavior can be predicted from prompt and CoT representations. By evaluating a probe at each generated token, we construct a probe trajectory, the continuous evolution of a concept's probability across the reasoning process. We find that future model behavior is more distinguishable when examined over the full trajectory than from a single static prediction. To characterize these temporal dynamics, we extract signal-processing features that capture volatility, trend, and steady-state behavior, significantly improving the separation of future model states. We also present two methodological insights. First, template-based training data achieves near-parity with dynamically generated model responses, eliminating the need for a costly initial inference and labeling. Second, the choice of pooling operation is critical: average-pooling and last-token methods collapse to near-random performance, while max-pooling achieves up to 95% AUROC and yields stable probe trajectories. Using four datasets and four reasoning models across the domains of safety and mathematics, we demonstrate that trajectory features encode task-specific dynamics that improve outcome separability. These findings establish probe trajectories as a complementary framework for monitoring LRM behavior. Warning: This article contains potentially harmful content.