EarthShift: a benchmark for measuring robustness to real-world distribution shifts in Earth observation
Authors: Kelsey Doerksen, Hannah Kerner
Organizations: School of Computing and Augmented Intelligence Arizona State University
Abstract
Current Earth observation benchmarks focus on measuring performance on diverse tasks and applications, typically measuring generalization in-distribution. But when models are deployed, they must generalize to myriad out-of-distribution scenarios, such as new time periods, geographies, scales, and sensors. We introduce EarthShift: the first public testbed for benchmarking robustness across multiple realistic distribution shifts encountered in remote sensing. EarthShift enables users to measure distributional robustness by comparing performance in- and out-of-distribution using datasets from paired datasets from different sources, temporal windows, geographic locations, and sensors. Our experiments on 8 geospatial foundation models (GFMs) and 11 tasks covering 5 shift types show that GFMs consistently perform 15-20% worse out-of-distribution on average regardless of model architecture, size, pre-training or fine-tuning strategy. We show that GFM robustness is similar to that of generic vision foundation models, and even fully-supervised models. This highlights a need for future research to strive for improvements in distributional robustness, not just performance, which can be benchmarked using EarthShift. We release our code and datasets to provide a testbed to guide future work to create foundation models that are robust and reliable in real-world applications. Code and data for EarthShift are available at: https://earthshift.github.io
Geospatial foundation models pretrained on satellite imagery promise broad generalization across remote sensing tasks and regions, but their geographic transferability has not been systematically tested, especially in agriculture applications. This paper presents a controlled benchmark that evaluates three models, Prithvi, SpectralGPT, and SatMAE, on multi-temporal crop segmentation and change detection across four U.S. states, Iowa, North Carolina, California, and Minnesota. By assigning each train, validation, and test split to a separate region, we measure how well each model transfers to land it has not seen. All three degrade sharply under regional distribution shift, predicting only the most common crops while missing rare ones. We further find that fitting these models to a shared input format affects each one differently, which complicates direct architectural comparison. These results expose key limitations of current geospatial foundation models for agriculture and point to region aware evaluation as a necessary standard.
Foundation models (FMs) have transformed machine learning from isolated task-specific model development toward general-purpose models pretrained on broad data and adapted to multiple downstream tasks. Earth observation (EO) is an important domain for this paradigm because satellite and airborne archives are large, high-revisit, and increasingly multimodal, while reliable field labels are often sparse. Remote sensing foundation models (RSFMs) cannot be transferred reliably/optimally without domain-specific adaptation. This is because EO data are governed by measurement physics and operational decision constraints. This chapter reviews the design principles arising from these domain-specific constraints. It first defines the FMs paradigm in remote sensing (RS), then synthesizes the current model landscape, pretraining objectives, architecture designs, downstream adaptation and trustworthiness requirements. The chapter also incorporates recent benchmark evidence showing that no single geospatial foundation model is universally best and that inconsistent evaluation remains a major issue to fair comparison and reliable deployment. In addition, two brief environmental monitoring case studies; physics-informed spectral targeted masking for harmful algal bloom prediction and reinforcement learning for adaptive environmental monitoring station selection to illustrate the FMs domain-guided principles in practice. This chapter posits that next-generation RSFMs should be evaluated not only by benchmark accuracy, but also by modality-aware transfer and physically plausible representations for trustworthy EO decisions.
Syed Usama Imtiaz, Mitra Nasr Azadani, Nasrin Alamdari
Despite the burgeoning body of work on distribution shifts, provenance shift-where the relationship between data source and label changes at deployment-remains poorly understood and under-addressed. In this paper, we establish a formal connection between provenance shift, counterfactual invariance, and invariant learning to derive a learning objective for robustness. We then introduce \textsc{DeconDTN-Toolkit}, a specialized evaluation and remediation suite designed to simulate provenance shifts of varying degrees while maintaining the training protocol and the infrastructure of existing benchmarks. We reveal the vulnerability of Empirical Risk Minimization under provenance shift, introduce a robust out-of-distribution performance indicator, and conduct a comprehensive evaluation on existing algorithms. Our work provides both the theoretical grounding and the practical tools necessary to characterize the problem of confounding by provenance, and implementations of methods to mitigate it.