How Much Is a Dataset Worth? Scaling Laws, the Vendi Score, and Matrix Spectral Functions
Authors: Jeff A. Bilmes, Gantavya Bhatt, Arnav M. Das
Organizations: Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering 2Paul G. Allen School of Computer Science & Engineering University of Washington, Seattle Seattle, WA 98195
Abstract
Neural scaling laws appraise data through dataset size, while the Vendi Score uses quantum entropy to measure dataset value. We show both that common neural-scaling-law objectives and the Vendi Score are submodular. We further show that the Vendi Score is a special case of a broader class of submodular objectives that we call matrix spectral functions. This also includes determinantal (DPP) objectives, as well as many others. We also introduce weakly matrix monotone functions and show how they lead to weakly submodular matrix spectral functions, yielding a broad family of practical objectives for data appraisal. We develop secular-equation-based updates that avoid repeated eigendecompositions during greedy optimization, reducing marginal-gain evaluation for m-dimensional embeddings by an O(m) factor relative to oracle queries. This yields an average empirical speedup of about 35,000x, making direct optimization of the Vendi Score feasible on ImageNet-1K-scale datasets. Thus enabled, we compare how well several objectives predict the value of training subsets for held-out test performance under fixed-size, class-balanced, and fixed training-budget regimes, including the Vendi Score, DPPs, facility location, and three new matrix spectral variants. Across multiple datasets, facility location performs the best. Direct optimization also reveals that, while the Vendi Score is predictive over moderate score ranges, pushing the objective to higher values can make it a poor downstream performance proxy. We also find that uniformly at random fixed-size subsets, both unconstrained and class-balanced, are remarkably concentrated in both appraisal scores and held-out performance. Finally, we show that size, class balance, and training budget do not alone determine data value: even when controlling for these factors, performance ranges smoothly from good to bad.
A modern model release reports scores on 40+ benchmarks and the same evaluations were run many more times before it: to track training progress, compare design choices, and select the checkpoint for the release. But do we need to run every eval? We compile a public score matrix of 84 frontier models on 133 benchmarks (2,604 cells, 23.3% filled) and find it is approximately rank-2: a model's scores across all 133 benchmarks are largely determined by just two numbers. We confirm this in two ways: scores hidden from the matrix are best recovered using two factors, and two factors already explain over 90% of the variation among models on the benchmarks they share. Building on this, we design BenchPress: a logit-space rank-2 matrix completion method that recovers held-out scores to within 4.6 points, and a confidence layer that says when each prediction can be trusted. Using BenchPress, we find a subset of five benchmarks {GPQA-D, HLE, Codeforces, MMLU-Pro, ARC-AGI-1} that can recover the rest of a model's public scorecard to within 3.93 points. For a tighter inference budget, a cheaper set {GPQA-D, MMLU-Pro, Aider Polyglot, MATH-500, AIME 2026} can predict a model's evals to within 4.55. We release the score matrix, the BenchPress code, and an interactive tool that predicts any model's score on any benchmark.
Improving LLM performance on downstream tasks sometimes requires leveraging auxiliary datasets during post-training. In practice, however, developers face constraints on compute, labeling, and licensing costs that preclude using all available data, necessitating principled dataset-level selection. These constraints are increasingly shaped by dataset marketplaces, where data acquisition is governed by budgets and negotiation. We study dataset valuation as a subset selection problem during LLM post-training. Our goal is to identify and weight auxiliary datasets so as to maximize target task performance given constrained budgets. We first show that commonly used gradient alignment scores provide a reasonable yet incomplete valuation signal, as they ignore redundancy among datasets. To address this, we propose a scalable convex dataset-level valuation method based on kernel mean matching (KMM) in gradient space, which jointly accounts for alignment with the target task and redundancy across auxiliary datasets. Through extensive experiments across diverse post-training settings and tasks, we show that our approach consistently outperforms existing valuation baselines, achieving stronger performance with low computational overhead. Our results position dataset valuation as a practical decision tool for post-training data selection in market-constrained large language model settings. The code is available at https://github.com/uiuctml/convex_data_valuation.
Evaluating large language models across many benchmarks is expensive, yet many benchmarks are highly correlated. We formalize the selection of a small, informative subset as submodular maximization under a multivariate Gaussian model. Entropy (log-determinant covariance) and mutual information between selected and remaining benchmarks arise as natural objectives. Both are submodular; entropy selection coincides with pivoted Cholesky and has spectral residual bounds, while mutual information is non-monotone in general but empirically monotone for small subsets, so we optimize it greedily. Experiments on three matrices from ten public leaderboards show that mutual information selection outperforms entropy for imputation at small subsets.