STAP: A Shuffle-Tokenized App Predictor with Ultra Long Context for Vocabulary-Free Mobile App Prediction
Authors: Chengyu Fan, Hang Liu
Organizations: School of Nuclear Science and Technology, University of Science and Technology of China, 96 Jinzhai Road, Hefei, 230026, Anhui, China · Department of Statistics and Finance, University of Science and Technology of China, 96 Jinzhai Road, Hefei, 230026, Anhui, China
Abstract
Predicting the next mobile application a user will launch is essential for intelligent device resource management and proactive assistance. Existing models rely on fixed app vocabularies, which prevents them from generalizing across different app ecosystems. Many also depend on user-specific knowledge, which complicates deployment in cold start scenarios. We propose STAP, a Transformer-based model that eliminates the need for a fixed vocabulary. STAP replaces true app identities with randomly reassigned virtual indices via a shuffle mechanism, and compensates for discarded semantic information by processing behavioral sequences with an ultra-long context design. A theoretical analysis shows that, given a sufficiently long context, the predicted distribution converges to the correct one despite the anonymity of the mapping. Experiments on two datasets from different continents demonstrate that STAP achieves strong cross-dataset zero-shot prediction accuracy -- a setting where all existing fixed-vocabulary methods are inherently inapplicable -- while its cold start performance within each dataset remains competitive with leading models. Furthermore, we introduce a deployment strategy that enables the model to retain a sufficiently long context during continuous inference while keeping latency within acceptable bounds.
Time-series foundation models show strong transfer performance when given a non-empty history window. However, true cold-start scenarios, where a new item has no prior observations, violate this assumption. We propose RAID (Retrieval-Augmented Iterative Diffusion) a framework, which replaces history-based correlation learning with metadata-driven semantic retrieval and graph-conditioned diffusion. RAID maps textual metadata into a shared semantic space using a frozen multilingual embedding model and constructs an inductive retrieval graph that extends naturally to unseen items. It first forms a base forecast by aggregating information from semantically related neighbors, then refines this forecast with a gated diffusion module to model residual uncertainty. Under a strict true cold-start protocol, RAID outperforms strong foundation models and competitive baselines on both forecasting accuracy and prediction interval coverage, while reducing inference latency by an order of magnitude through non-autoregressive decoding. The shared semantic space also enables zero-shot cross-lingual transfer, allowing a model trained on English descriptions to generalize to items described in other languages without direct supervision.
Arunkumar V, Manoranjan Gandhudi, Gangadharan G. R. +2
Stress is a pervasive determinant of mental health and a key target for mobile health interventions. On-device language models (ODLMs) offer privacy-preserving inference without cloud dependency, yet their feasibility for health prediction under mobile resource constraints remains underexplored. We evaluate ODLMs for multi-modal stress prediction using zero-shot prompting, measuring predictive accuracy alongside latency and throughput. Our results show that objective sensor features marginally outperform subjective self-reports on average, and that lightweight sub-2B models achieve low latency with predictable resource usage. Our findings highlight both the promise and the practical constraints of ODLMs for mobile mental health.
Human mobility prediction is a critical task but remains challenging due to its complexity and variability across populations and regions. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have made progress in zero-shot prediction, but existing methods suffer from limited interpretability (due to black-box reasoning), lack of iterative learning from new data, and poor transferability. In this paper, we introduce \textbf{ARMove}, a fully transferable framework for predicting human mobility through agentic reasoning. To address these limitations, ARMove employs standardized feature management with iterative optimization and user-specific customization: four major feature pools for foundational knowledge, user profiles for segmentation, and an automated generation mechanism integrating LLM knowledge. Robust generalization is achieved via agentic decision-making that adjusts feature weights to maximize accuracy while providing interpretable decision paths. Finally, large-small model synergy distills strategies from large LLMs (e.g., 72B) to smaller ones (e.g., 7B), reducing costs and enhancing performance ceilings. Extensive experiments on four global datasets show ARMove outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on 6 out of 12 metrics (gains of 0.78% to 10.47%), with transferability tests confirming robustness across regions, users, and scales. The other 4 items also achieved suboptimal results. Transferability tests confirm its 19 robustness across regions, user groups, and model scales, while interpretability 20 analysis highlights its transparency in decision-making. Our codes are available at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/ARMove-F847.