From Short Histories to Long Futures: Horizon-Aware Graph Neural Networks for Long Horizon Forecasting

In this work, we present COGENT, a continuous graph emulator with Neural Ordinary Differential Equations for long-term physical forecasting on irregular geospatial meshes. COGENT encodes a finite history of system states and associated forcing fields and external forcings with a graph-based history encoder, producing node-wise context vectors that capture both local spatial interactions and temporal evolution. These context vectors initialize and condition a latent Neural Ordinary Differential Equation whose dynamics are driven by interpolated future forcings and explicit relative rollout time. By modeling the forecast trajectory as a continuous latent dynamical system, COGENT can generate predictions at arbitrary future times rather than being restricted to a fixed temporal discretization. A residual decoder maps the resulting latent trajectories back to future physical states, enabling direct multi-step forecasting without repeatedly feeding predicted states back into the model. This formulation combines graph-based spatial representation, history-conditioned latent dynamics, and continuous-time rollout in a unified framework for mesh-based physical simulation emulation. In order to stabilize training with long-horizon supervision, we also propose effective rollout-horizon sampling and a progressive rollout-horizon scheduling strategy. We evaluate COGENT on transient ice-sheet simulations generated by the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model, demonstrating improved long-range stability over autoregressive graph baselines. These results suggest that continuous graph Neural ODEs provide a promising methodology for scalable physical forecasting on irregular geospatial meshes, particularly in applications that require stable long-horizon predictions and the ability to query system states at arbitrary times.

Transient glacier simulations with higher-order ice flow require the repeated solution of a nonlinear problem as the geometry evolves. In the online mode of the Instructed Glacier Model, the velocity field is represented by a neural network whose weights are warm-started from the previous time step and updated with a few optimizer iterations. We show that supplying the network with inexpensive input fields derived from low-order ice-flow balances improves this online solver. Unlike residual-based physics-informed neural networks, which incorporate physics through governing-equation penalties in the loss, our approach leaves the governing energy objective unchanged, adding physical structure through the network inputs. Across three real-world glacier configurations, the enriched solver is markedly more robust to solver settings. On the two alpine cases, it also improves the tuned accuracy--runtime trade-off, reducing surface-velocity errors by factors of two to four at fixed runtime and reaching few-percent relative errors with only $10^4$--$10^5$ trainable parameters, far fewer than comparable raw-input baselines. A 300-year Aletsch simulation then completes in under one minute, and the larger Valais domain in about two minutes, on a single GPU---a budget once reserved for much simpler shallow-ice models. Gains are smaller for the fast marine-terminating glacier, where nonlocal stress coupling favors larger or spectral networks. More broadly, the results suggest that enriching a neural solver's inputs with reduced-order physics can make repeated higher-order solves much cheaper, with no training data and no offline training.

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting is societally critical, supporting decision-making in sectors ranging from water and agricultural management to disaster risk reduction, energy planning, and insurance. Achieving reliable predictions at these timescales requires representing the ocean and its dynamics, but traditional physics-based Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs), are computationally expensive and difficult to develop and improve because of the code complexity. In this work, we propose Neptune, an end-to-end data-driven framework for global ocean and sea-ice components emulation tailored for S2S timescales, up to 60 days. Neptune combines Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Spherical Fourier Neural Operators (SFNOs) to effectively capture local features and global cross-scale interactions, thereby obtaining a coherent representation of the ocean state. Forced by prescribed daily atmospheric fields, Neptune emulates ocean state variables, from temperature and salinity, to zonal and meridional currents, from sea surface height to sea ice thickness and concentration, with daily outputs at the ocean surface and through the water column. Specifically, we propose two variants of Neptune, Neptune-1 and Neptune-025, capable of emulating the ocean state at 1° and 0.25° resolution, respectively. Evaluated against a suite of metrics, including statistics (RMSE, CRPS and ACC), physical coherency (Ocean Heat Content, Eddy Kinetic Energy and Ice Brier Score) and climate indices (ENSO and Z20 metric, IOD), Neptune successfully reproduces the spatio-temporal evolution of the oceanic fields up to 60 days, and is stable over long timescales. Neptune provides compelling evidence that end-to-end data-driven ocean emulators can become a powerful component of next-generation S2S forecasting systems, emulating ocean state at high spatio-temporal resolution.