Modeling an opponent's intent is critical for effective decision-making in non-cooperative, competitive, and general-sum multi-agent reinforcement learning. Existing opponent modeling methods encode intent using an embedding derived from episode information chosen a priori, such as the opponent's next action or a future environment state, and use this to guide the ego-agent's behavior. These approaches assume that the chosen information is universally representative of intent; however, we show empirically that this is not the case as intentions are often task- and environment-dependent. To address this, we introduce a task-adaptive opponent modeling framework that learns a performance-driven mixture of multiple intent representations. We further introduce a new intention representation that maximizes mutual information with the ego-agent's future returns, thereby capturing opponent information that is most directly relevant to performance. Our approach consistently matches or exceeds the performance of state-of-the-art baselines across diverse tasks and yields insights into when and why different opponent modeling strategies succeed.
Accurately predicting opponents' behavior from interactions is a fundamental capability for large language model (LLM)-based agents in multi-agent and game-theoretic environments. Existing approaches often entangle opponent modeling with prediction, relying on implicit contextual reasoning and limiting adaptability in dynamic interactions. To this end, we propose Structured Opponent Modeling (SOM), a two-stage opponent modeling framework that distinctly separates opponent model construction and opponent prediction. At the construction stage, SOM employs a Structural Causal Model (SCM), a graph-based formalism for representing dependencies among variables, to capture directed links between opponents' observations and actions, yielding an explicit and structured opponent representation. At the prediction stage, the LLM performs structured reasoning along clear pathways derived from the SCM, improving both prediction accuracy and stability. Extensive experiments on diverse multi-agent benchmarks demonstrate that SOM consistently outperforms state-of-the-art LLM-based reasoning baselines, enabling more accurate and adaptable strategic decision-making in complex and dynamic multi-agent interactions.
In cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), agents must coordinate with partners whose internal policies and intentions are not directly observable. While world models such as Dreamer have demonstrated strong generalization and sample efficiency in single-agent settings, their application to MARL remains limited by an inability to handle teammate-induced uncertainty. We propose a new perspective: treat teammates as structured, learnable components within the agent's world model. We introduce an architecture that factorizes the latent state of a Dreamer-style recurrent state-space model (RSSM) into environment and teammate components, and learns an auxiliary Theory-of-Mind (ToM) head to infer latent embeddings of partner behavior such as character, intent, and predicted actions from partial trajectories. These teammate latents condition the actor and critic, enabling the agent to imagine and adapt to diverse collaborators. We outline how this approach can support zero-shot and few-shot coordination in partially observable settings and propose a set of benchmarks and evaluation protocols to assess its impact. This work positions world models as not only predictors of environmental dynamics, but as simulators of social behavior, opening new directions for generalizable, human-compatible AI.
A key challenge in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) lies in designing learning signals that effectively promote coordination among agents. Designing such signals requires estimating how one agent's current action affects its teammates over future interaction steps. To address this, we introduce Multi-step Advantage-Gated Interventional Causal MARL (MAGIC), a framework that estimates multi-step action effects between agents and selectively converts them into intrinsic rewards. MAGIC uses counterfactual action interventions to compare teammate futures under factual and counterfactual branches, and introduces a gate based on advantage to direct exploration toward beneficial behaviors aligned with the task goal. Experiments on Multi-Agent Particle Environments (MPE) and StarCraft micromanagement benchmarks (SMAC and SMACv2) show that MAGIC consistently outperforms leading prior methods, with average relative final performance improvements of 26.9% and 10.1%, respectively.