Time series forecasting often requires learning nonlinear and time-delayed dependencies. A paradigmatic class of forecasting models are nonlinear vector autoregressive processes (NVAR), also known as next-generation reservoir computers (NG-RCs). These models approximate the Koopman operator on the space spanned by their explicit feature library. We consider the identifiability problem for learning Markovian nonlinear dynamical systems and show that the training error as a function of time resolution follows characteristic (pre-)asymptotic scaling laws. These laws depend on whether the feature library can represent the early Lie-series coefficients of the flow map (propagator) exactly or merely approximately. For dynamical systems governed by polynomial vector fields, we demonstrate the mechanism for NVAR/NG-RC models with monomial and Fourier feature libraries. We determine the dependence of the training error on the temporal resolution, the involved nonlinear degree, and the number of delay terms. While delay terms reduce the optimal one-step training error, they improve long-horizon forecasts only when the library provides sufficient nonlinearity. Thus, small training error coexists with weak generalization as the model class is mismatched to the true data-generating process. Numerical experiments on various chaotic dynamical systems confirm the theoretical predictions.
Understanding how training shapes the geometry of recurrent network dynamics is a central problem in time-series modeling. We study the emergence of low-dimensional dominant manifolds in the training of Reservoir Computing (RC) networks for temporal forecasting tasks. For a general linear continuous-time reservoir in the infinite-data limit, we show that the training data generate an invariant subspace of the trained reservoir, whose dimension equals the number of dominant modes. We then specialize to a simplified diagonal linear reservoir, where we link the dominant eigenvalues and eigenvectors to the spectrum of a backward Dynamic Mode Decomposition matrix, which yields a finite-dimensional approximation of the backward-time Koopman operator of the system generating the training data. We illustrate the emergence of these dominant modes during training in simulation, and discuss how the analysis may be extended to nonlinear RC via tangent dynamics and differential p-dominance.
Learning tractable linear representations of nonlinear dynamical systems via Koopman operator theory is often hindered by dictionary selection, temporal memory encoding, and numerical ill-conditioning. Inspired by Reservoir Computing (RC) paradigm, this paper introduces the RC-Koopman framework, which interprets reservoir as a stateful, finite-dimensional Koopman dictionary whose temporal depth is explicitly controlled by its spectral radius. We show that the Echo State Property (ESP) guarantees well-posedness and favorable numerical conditioning of the lifted Koopman approximation. A correlation-based spectral radius selection algorithm aligns reservoir memory with dominant system timescales. Analysis reveals how the finite memory of the reservoir determines which Koopman eigenfunctions remain observable from the lifted features. Evaluation on synthetic benchmarks demonstrates that RC-Koopman achieves a favorable balance between reconstruction accuracy of the underlying nonlinear dynamics and dynamical stability, compared to Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition (EDMD) and Hankel-based lifting approaches. Code available at: https://github.com/NEAR-the-future/RC-Koopman.git
When training autoregressive models to forecast dynamical systems, a critical question arises: how far into the future should the model be trained to predict for optimal performance? In this work, we address this question by analyzing the relationship between the geometry of the loss landscape and the training time horizon. Using dynamical systems theory, we prove that loss minima for long horizons generalize well to short-term forecasts, whereas minima found on short horizons result in worse long-term predictions. However, we also prove that the loss landscape becomes rougher as the training horizon grows, making long-horizon training inherently challenging. We validate our theory through numerical experiments and discuss practical implications for selecting training horizons. Our results provide a principled foundation for hyperparameter optimization in autoregressive forecasting models.
Pau Vilimelis Aceituno, Jack William Miller, Noah Marti +2