Fitting quantitative models to data is a central step in scientific workflows, yet it remains one of the least automated. Recent agent-based systems leverage language and vision-language models (VLMs) to iteratively propose and refine statistical models, but these systems struggle on more challenging modeling tasks. To address these limitations, we introduce VESTA: Visual Exploration with Statistical Tool Agents, a framework that equips VLMs with a dynamically growing exploration toolkit to guide model refinement through data transformations, hypothesis-driven visualizations, and robust statistical tests. Unlike prior systems that rely on iterative critique alone, VESTA actively explores data before and during refinement by selecting or creating diagnostic tools, which accumulate in the model's context and can be reused later. We evaluate VESTA against established baselines in three toolkit configurations: no tools, static expert-written tools, and dynamic model-written tools. To support this evaluation, we introduce DAWN (Dataset for Automated Workflows and Numerical Modeling), a benchmark targeting distribution fitting and time series modeling with varying difficulty tiers, and culminating in real-world astronomy tasks including modeling initial mass functions and gravitational-wave chirp signals. We find that VESTA's dynamic tool creation outperforms prior agentic pipelines, with the largest gains on complex and domain-specific tasks. We further show that dynamically generated tools are substantially more sophisticated than those produced by existing visual tool-creation systems, covering more diagnostic categories per function and strongly preferring visual outputs that the VLM critic can reason over directly.
The rise of autonomous AI agents suggests that dynamic benchmark environments with built-in feedback on scientifically grounded tasks are needed to evaluate the capabilities of these agents in research work. We introduce Stargazer, a scalable environment for evaluating AI agents on dynamic, iterative physics-grounded model-fitting tasks using inference on radial-velocity (RV) time series data. Stargazer comprises 120 tasks across three difficulty tiers, including 20 real archival cases, covering diverse scenarios ranging from high-SNR single-planet systems to complex multi-planetary configurations requiring involved low-SNR analysis. Our evaluation of eight frontier agents reveals a gap between numerical optimization and adherence to physical constraints: although agents often achieve a good statistical fit, they frequently fail to recover correct physical system parameters, a limitation that persists even when agents are equipped with vanilla skills. Furthermore, increasing test-time compute yields only marginal gains, with excessive token usage often reflecting recursive failure loops rather than meaningful exploration. Stargazer presents an opportunity to train, evaluate, scaffold, and scale strategies on a model-fitting problem of practical research relevance today. Our methodology to design a simulation-driven environment for AI agents presumably generalizes to many other model-fitting problems across scientific domains. Source code and the project website are available at https://github.com/AIPS-UofT/Stargazer and https://aips-uoft.github.io/Stargazer/, respectively.
Xinge Liu, Terry Jingchen Zhang, Bernhard Schölkopf +2
Agentic multimodal reasoning extends passive image understanding by allowing VLMs to actively acquire and refine visual evidence through visual tool interactions. Effective visual tool use requires three capabilities: grounding tool calls in visual context, composing tools across multiple steps, and adapting reasoning to tool-returned observations. However, existing approaches largely focus on grounding within fixed tool spaces and rigid invocation patterns, leaving composition and adaptation insufficiently addressed. We present VC-Tooler, which learns visual tool use as a compositional and adaptive capability. To this end, we first build a trajectory bank through a hierarchical synthesis pipeline covering three capability levels: single-tool grounding, multi-tool composition, and diverse tool contexts and interfaces. We then train the model in two stages: a supervised cold start that establishes these capabilities, followed by reinforcement learning that encourages accurate, efficient, and context-aware visual tool use. VC-Tooler achieves state-of-the-art performance among open-source models on both general-purpose and agentic benchmarks, including 95.8% on V* and 35.3% on VTC-Bench, and shows promising transfer under richer tool settings at inference time. Project page: https://w1zheng.github.io/VC-Tooler
Vision-language models (VLMs) are increasingly proposed as general-purpose tools for scientific data interpretation, yet their reliability on real astronomical observations across diverse modalities remains untested. We present AstroVLBench, a comprehensive benchmark comprising over 4,100 expert-verified instances across five tasks spanning optical imaging, radio interferometry, multi-wavelength photometry, time-domain light curves, and optical spectroscopy. Evaluating six frontier models, we find that performance is strongly modality-dependent: while one model (Gemini 3 Pro) emerges as the most consistently capable across tasks, task-specific strengths vary, and all models substantially underperform domain-specialized methods. Mechanistic ablations reveal that performance depends not only on directing attention to salient visual features but also on grounding those features in physical knowledge. Phenomenological prompts describing what to look for improve accuracy by sharpening model focus, but physical prompts explaining why those features matter perform better overall and yield more balanced classifications with reduced class-specific bias. Consistent with this picture, presenting the underlying one-dimensional measurements directly as numerical tables instead of rendered plots yields up to 13 percentage points improvement. Reasoning quality analysis further demonstrates that, without explicit physical grounding, models may reach correct predictions from phenomenologically plausible cues while providing physically imprecise justifications, establishing that accuracy alone is insufficient for trustworthy scientific deployment. These findings provide the first systematic, multi-modal baselines for VLMs in observational astronomy and identify the specific representation, grounding, and reasoning bottlenecks where current models fail.