Extending Causal Metamodeling to a non-Markovian Queue

Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are widely used as decision-making models, commonly specified over factored state spaces through state variables and their valuations. The exponential blowup in the number of states renders many reasoning tasks in MDPs challenging. Abstractions are promising techniques to reduce MDPs and thus mitigate scalability issues. In this work, we introduce a notion of causality on factored MDPs and a novel property-driven causal abstraction technique that retains many characteristics of the original MDP model. For this, we rely on causal relations over state variable predicates and identify those states that share the same reasons for fulfilling or violating a given abstraction property. We theoretically and empirically compare various causal MDP abstractions using different model types such as MDPs, interval MDPs, or stochastic games. Our evaluation demonstrates the potential of our approach: For several standard benchmarks, we obtain small abstractions that allow us to compute near-optimal policies for the original MDP. Furthermore, our causal abstractions often generalize to related large-scale MDP models.

Off-policy learning in constrained MDPs with large binary state spaces faces a fundamental tension: causal identification of transition dynamics requires structural assumptions, while sample-efficient policy learning requires state-space compression. We introduce PI-CMDP, a framework for CMDPs whose constraint dependencies form a layered DAG under a Lifecycle Ordering Assumption (LOA). We propose an Identify-Compress-Estimate pipeline: (i) Identify: LOA enables backdoor identification of causal edge weights for cross-layer pairs, with formal partial-identification bounds when LOA is violated; (ii) Compress: a Markov abstraction compresses state cardinality from 2^(WL) to (W+1)^L under layer-priority regularity and exchangeability; and (iii) Estimate: a physics-guided doubly-robust estimator remains unbiased and reduces the variance constant when the physics prior outperforms a learned model. We instantiate PI-CMDP on constraint repair in engineering simulation pipelines. On the TPS benchmark (4,206 episodes), PI-CMDP achieves 76.2% repair success rate with only 300 training episodes versus 70.8% for the strongest baseline (+5.4 pp), narrowing to +2.8 pp (83.4% vs. 80.6%) in the full-data regime, while substantially reducing cascade failure rates. All improvements are consistent across 5 independent seeds (paired t-test p < 0.02).

Probabilistic model checking for Markov decision processes (MDPs) provides quantitative guarantees, but often offers limited insight into why undesired outcomes occur. Probability-raising (PR) causality addresses this by identifying states whose visitation increases the probability of reaching designated states. Existing PR-cause identification methods, however, use MDP modifications not well-suited for learning: the gap between conditional and unconditional reachability probabilities can be hard to detect from transition samples, and construction requires reachability probabilities of the MDP, which are unavailable when transition probabilities are unknown. We study unknown MDPs and propose a learning approach with probabilistic guarantees for PR-cause identification. Our key ingredient is a restart-based MDP modification that reduces PR-cause checking to two conditional reachability queries without using reachability values of the original MDP. We prove correctness, establish sample-complexity bounds, and develop an anytime learning-and-checking algorithm based on two-sided value iteration that progressively classifies states as causal, non-causal, or undecided. Experiments on two benchmarks demonstrate reliable and fast identification of PR causes.