Probability

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24 papers in the last four weeks, up 85% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

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  1. Verbalized and Internal Probabilities Are Coupled in Large Language Models

    Sep 30, 2026Sinead Williamson, Jiaxuan Li, Nick Foti +2Large Language Model UncertaintyProbability

    Apple

  2. How Accurate Is Accurate Enough?

    Sep 30, 2026Ningkang Peng, Qianfeng Yu, Jingyang Mao +2Loss FunctionProbability

    Nanjing Normal University · Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine

  3. Probability is Not Enough: Exploring and Counting Divergent Tokens for Reasoning Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs

    Sep 29, 2026Feiyang Li, Shengjing Liu, Qi Zhan +7Large Language Model UncertaintyConfidence Calibration

    College of Computer Science and Software Engineering, Shenzhen University · Tsinghua University · Behavioral and Spatial AI Lab, Peking University & Tongji University

  4. Jev thinks "I don't know'', but doesn't say it: Introducing Sys1Cal-v1 Dataset for Probability Calibration

    Sep 28, 2026Riccardo PorceddaProbabilityConfidence Calibration

    Department of Excellence L’EMbeDS, Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies, Italy · Department of Computer Science, University of Pisa, Italy

  5. Recommendation Ranking Off-Policy Evaluation under Ranking-Dependent Examination via Examination-Relevance Decomposition

    Sep 28, 2026Riki Okamura, Toshiharu SugawaraPolicy EvaluationRanking

    Department of Computer Science and Communications Engineering, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan

  6. Composable Decoding on the Probability Simplex: Theory and Implementation

    Sep 28, 2026Xiaotong Ji, Ahmed Khaled Khamis, Rasul Tutunov +2ProbabilityRegularization

    Huawei Noah’s Ark Lab · UCL Centre for AI

  7. Reference-Tail Trust:Certified Probability Floors for Learned Updates Inside a Deployed Network

    Sep 28, 2026Abdolvahab Khalili Sadaghiani, Jose Nunez-YanezLog-Ratio-Based Gaussian Trust WeightGraph Neural Networks

  8. Uniform Race: Parameter-Free Approximate Rejection Sampling

    Sep 28, 2026Seiyun Shin, Juhyeong Pang, Kwang-Sung JunRejection SamplingProbability

    Graduate School of Artificial Intelligence Pohang University of Science and Technology Pohang, 37673, South Korea · Department of Computer Science University of Wisconsin–Madison Madison, WI 53706, USA · Graduate School of Artificial Intelligence Department of Computer Science and Engineering Pohang University of Science and Technology Pohang, 37673, South Korea

  9. Two-Sample Testing for Inhomogeneous Random Graphs in Non-Integral LrL_r Norms

    Sep 27, 2026Soham DanInhomogeneous Random GraphsTwo-Sample Testing

  10. Training Witnesses: Trusting the Training without Trusting the Trainer

    Sep 27, 2026Houjun Liu, Pratyusha SharmaModel TrainingWitnesses

    Microsoft Research

  11. Probability Contracts: Accuracy, Coherence, and Decisions Across LLM Interfaces

    Sep 27, 2026Han Chen, Yingrui LiProbability

    Independent Researcher

  12. Quantifying Behavioral Tails in Black-Box Language Models

    Sep 27, 2026Elsayed Eshra, Ali Al-Lawati, Dongwon Lee +1ProbabilitySeverity

    The Pennsylvania State University University Park, PA 16802, USA

  13. Hierarchical Response Preservation for Continual Adaptation of Zero-Shot Graph-Text Models

    Sep 27, 2026Haopeng Zhang, Yuhan Wang, Yubing Su +4ResponsesProbability

    School of Computer Science and Engineering, Beihang University Beijing, China · School of Electronic and Information Engineering Beihang University Beijing, China · School of Software, Beihang University Beijing, China

  14. JevOut: Natural Context Can Flip Decision Models

    Sep 24, 2026Zixiang XuDecisionsContextual Reasoning

    University of Southern California

  15. Mind What Matters for Reasoning: Aligning Cross-Modal Attention via Selective Probability Mass Concentration

    Sep 24, 2026Jiaqi Deng, Zonghan Wu, Zhan Heng +3Multimodal ReasoningMultimodal Large Language Models

    University of Technology Sydney · East China Normal University · The University of New South Wales +2

  16. Neither Silence nor Overlap Is Failure: Intent-Conditioned Evaluation of Turn-Taking in Full-Duplex Spoken Dialogue Models

    Sep 23, 2026Kian Shamsaie, Iman ModarressiTurn-TakingFull-Duplex Speech Models

    People Make Things

  17. Decomposing Error and Style in Automated Clinical Coding

    Sep 21, 2026Han-Chin Shing, Jack Moriarty, Ryan Ware +6International Classification Of Disease CodingCode Quality

    Amazon

  18. Auditing Bayesian Graph Alignment: Diagnostic Comparisons and Reference Failure

    Sep 19, 2026Melika Gorgi, Kourosh MirsohiConditional IndependenceDiagnosis

    Center for Complex Biological Systems University of California, Irvine Irvine, CA 92697, USA · Department of Computer Science University of California, Irvine Irvine, CA 92697, USA

  19. PAA: The Probabilistic Allen Algebra: A Generative and Complete Probabilistic Extension of Allen's Interval Relations

    Sep 17, 2026Julian EggertProbabilistic ModelProbability

    Honda Research Institute Europe, Offenbach, Germany · Honda Research Institute, Carl-Legien-Str. 30, 63073 Offenbach, Germany.

  20. A Data-free Universal Prior over Syntactic Structures

    Sep 15, 2026Fermín Moscoso del Prado MartínSyntactic StructureProbability

    Department of Computer Science and Technology, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom

  21. A Ranking Approach for Measuring Calibration

    Sep 14, 2026Anirban Chatterjee, Rina Foygel BarberProbabilityRanking

    Department of Mathematics and Statistics Boston University · Department of Statistics University of Chicago

  22. A Unifying Perspective on Probabilities as Model Predictions

    Sep 9, 2026Benedikt HöltgenProbabilityBayesian

    Hasso Plattner Institute, University of Potsdam

  23. Distillation as Probability Transport: Routed On-Policy Distillation

    Sep 8, 2026Tianle Xia, Lingxiang Hu, Yiding Sun +6TeacherStudent-Generated Trajectories

    Tencent

  24. Are Image Generators Zero-Shot Perceivers? A Rigorous Evaluation

    Sep 7, 2026Shangzhe Di, Zhaokai Wang, Weidi XieZero-Shot RobustnessImage Generation

    Shanghai Jiao Tong University, China

  25. Hardware-Aware FP4 FlashAttention-4

    Sep 3, 2026Robert HuBlock Sparse Flash AttentionCausal Inferences

    GRAPHCORE RESEARCH

  26. Who Drives the Probability Game of VLMs? A Temporal Causal Drive Evaluation Framework

    Sep 2, 2026Shuyao Xiao, Shengling Wang, Haoyu Niu +4Multimodal GenerationAutoregressive Decoding

    College of Artificial Intelligence, Beijing Normal University · Kuaishou Technology

  27. Rock, Paper, Scissors, ... Dynamite - A Model of Disruption from New Technologies

    Aug 31, 2026Andrew J. LohnTechnologyCompetition

    Center for Security and Emerging Technology, Georgetown University Washington, DC, USA

  28. On the Complexity of the Compatibility Problem for Succinctly Encoded Conditional Distributions

    Aug 31, 2026Guy EmersonConditional DistributionProbabilistic Model

  29. Auditing MCQA Benchmarks through Probability Landscapes

    Aug 31, 2026Minsoo Song, Chanjun ParkMultiple-Choice QuestionsQuestion

    Soongsil University

  30. H-VAEP and H-xT: Valuing Offensive On-the-Ball Actions in Handball by Estimating Probabilities

    Aug 13, 2026Julius Broermann, Oliver Müller, Michael Döring +1ValueProbability

    Paderborn University, Paderborn, Germany · SG Flensburg-Handewitt, Flensburg, Germany

  31. General Probabilities of Causation with Causal Knowledge

    Aug 12, 2026Xin Shu, Zhen Lei, Ang LiCausal ModelingCausal

    Department of Computer Science, Florida State University

  32. How to Verify Consistency of Probabilistic Claims

    Aug 11, 2026Orr Paradise, Oliver Richardson, Yoshua Bengio +1Self-ConsistencyZero-Knowledge Proofs

    EPFL · Université de Montr´eal, Mila – Quebec AI Institute · MIT, UC Berkeley

  33. A Quantum Roadmap for Softmax Attention: Exact Born-Rule Analogs for Softmax Attention on the Probability Simplex

    Aug 11, 2026Eric A. F. Reinhardt, Adam J. HauserGumbel-Softmax RelaxationQubit

    Department of Physics and Astronomy University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487, USA

  34. Hierarchical Empirical-Bayes Naive Bayes: Minimax Smoothing and Calibration with AODE Extension

    Aug 11, 2026Nguyen Thai Anh, Truong Viet Vu, Tran Thien Thanh +2Empirical BayesProbability

    Faculty of Information Technology, Van Lang School of Technology, Van Lang University, Ho Chi Minh City, 70000, Vietnam · Institute of Information Technology and Electrical-Electronics Engineering, Ho Chi Minh City University of Transport, Ho Chi Minh City, 700000, Vietnam

  35. Every pooling rule has its world: matching probability combination rules to situations and stakes

    Aug 11, 2026Tanel Tammet, Priit Järv, Dirk DraheimProbabilityProbabilistic Model

    Tallinn University of Technology

  36. Status Association Does Not Reliably Predict Decision Leakage

    Aug 10, 2026Abdullah XAssociationsComputational Social Science

    Project AWARE

  37. Evaluating Generative Time-Series Models on Data with Point Masses

    Aug 10, 2026Jian XuTime-Series GenerationGenerative Models

    RIKEN iTHEMS, Wako, Japan · RIKEN Center for Advanced Intelligence Project (AIP), Tokyo, Japan

  38. Zero Gap Is Not Restoration: Stratified Per-Question Probability Evaluation and Step-wise Mitigation of Benchmark Contamination

    Aug 7, 2026Ruijie Hou, Yueyang Jiao, Zhao Wang +1MitigationLanguage Model Perplexity

    Zhejiang University

  39. From probability to causality in probabilistic logic programming

    Aug 7, 2026Zora Wurm, Kilian Rückschloß, Felix WeitkämperCausal ReasoningProbabilistic Model

    Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Oettingenstraße 67, 80538 München · Eberhard-Karls-Universität Tübingen, Auf der Morgenstelle 10, 72076 Tübingen · German University of Digital Science, Marlene-Dietrich-Allee 14, 14482 Potsdam

  40. Surv-IPTB: An Attention-Based Model for Estimating Individual Probability of Treatment Benefit with Survival Data

    Aug 6, 2026Lev V. Utkin, Stanislav K. Kogan, Andrei V. KonstantinovSurvival AnalysisTime-To-Event Data

    Higher School of Artificial Intelligence Technologies Peter the Great St.Petersburg Polytechnic University, St.Petersburg, Russia

  41. Conditionally Identifiable Latent-Environment Modeling for Out-of-Distribution Recommendation

    Aug 4, 2026Qianqian Wang, Wenwu Gong, Yunshan Li +3RecommendationLatent Variable

    Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Safety and Security for Next Generation of Industrial Internet, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China · Department of Statistics and Data Science, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China · School of Mathematical and Computational Sciences, Massey University, Auckland, New Zealand

  42. Dominant Arm Identification with Mixing and Recycling Observed Samples

    Aug 2, 2026Jonghyun Sim, Wonyoung KimStochastic Multi-Armed BanditsAlgorithm Selection

    Chung-Ang University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.

  43. When Policies Change Probabilities: Modular Decision-Making for LLM Code Review

    Aug 2, 2026Rasvik Kudum, Max Corbett, Hitansh Paliwal +3Code QualityReviewer

  44. An Information Theoretic Treatment of Yager's Probability Distribution Negation

    Aug 1, 2026Roberto Bruno, Ugo VaccaroProbabilityInformation-Theoretic Limits

    Department of Computer Science, University of Salerno, Via Giovanni Paolo II, 132, Fisciano, 84084, Salerno, Italy.

  45. PRISM: An Agentic Multi-Model Architecture for Proactive Safety in Autonomous Transportation Systems

    Jul 29, 2026Joyjit Roy, Samaresh Kumar Singh, Sushanta DasAgenticProbability

    Independent Researcher, IEEE Senior Member, Austin, Texas, USA. · Independent Researcher, IEEE Senior Member, Leander, Texas, USA. · American Center for Mobility, Ypsilanti, Michigan, USA.

  46. Simulation-based parameter estimation via a combination of embedded normalizing flows and implied empirical probabilities under moment restrictions

    Jul 27, 2026Getachew K. BefekaduEmpirical BayesSurrogate Models

    DEPARTMENT OF ELECTRICAL & COMPUTER ENGINEERING, COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING, PHYSICS, AND COMPUTING, THE CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY OF AMERICA, WASHINGTON, DC 20064, USA.

  47. Training with (Swap) Regret Loss in a Single-Layer Self-Attention Model: A Case Study on the Probability Simplex

    Jul 25, 2026Chanwoo Park, Asuman OzdaglarPlan RegretSelf-Play

    1MIT EECS

  48. Learning and Structurally Validating Simulation Scenario Continuations in Dynamic Graph Systems

    Jul 23, 2026Michael Romei de Socio, Gian Luca Pozzato, Alessio MerloScenario GenerationContinuation

    CASD – School of Advanced Defense Studies, 00165 Rome, Italy · Department of Computer Science, University of Turin, 10149 Turin, Italy

  49. Animation, Verification and Visualisation of Prolog Transition Systems with ProB

    Jul 23, 2026Jan Gruteser, Michael Leuschel, Katharina Engels +1Probabilistic Model CheckingTheorem Proving

    Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf · Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Institute of Computer Science, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Universitätsstr. 1, D-40225 Düsseldorf

  50. Encoding Event-B Proof Rules in Prolog: An Interactive Sequent Prover for ProB

    Jul 23, 2026Katharina Engels, Jan Gruteser, Michael LeuschelTheorem ProvingProof

    Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf · Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Institute of Computer Science, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Universitätsstr. 1, D-40225 Düsseldorf

  51. Generating Bearing Vibration Signals at User-Specified Fault Probabilities Using PR-GAN and Counterfactual Methods

    Jul 21, 2026Seyed Mohammadreza Alavi, Ardeshir Shojaeinasab, Reza Jalayer +2VibrationFault Diagnosis

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Victoria, Victoria BC, Canada · FAST-Lab, Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Tampere University, Korkeakoulunkatu 7, 33720 Tampere, Finland +1

  52. Calibrating Semantic Uncertainty from Observable Language-Model Probabilities

    Jul 20, 2026Matthew F. DixonLarge Language Model UncertaintyCalibrated Uncertainty

    Artificial Intelligence Finance Institute (AIFI), 69 Charlton St, New York, NY 10014, USA

  53. Linear representations of grammaticality in neural language models

    Jul 16, 2026Jane Li, Najoung KimGrammaticalityLinguistics

    Department of Cognitive Science Johns Hopkins University Baltimore, MD · Department of Linguistics Boston University Boston, MA

  54. Interventional Causal Circuits for Safe Robot Action Testing and Failure Recovery

    Jul 16, 2026Naren Vasantakumaar, Tom Schierenbeck, Michael BeetzRobot SystemsRobot Failures

    Institute for Artificial Intelligence, University of Bremen

  55. Production and Perception in LLMs: A Token Probability Approach

    Jul 13, 2026Anna Marklová, Jiří Milička, Martina Vokáčová +1Single-Token Output DistributionsLinguistics

    Faculty of Arts, Charles University, Prague · Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University, Prague

  56. Global Merger-Arbitrage Forecasting with Language Models

    Jul 10, 2026Hinal Jajal, Michal Mucha, Charles Sweat +3Large Language Model ForecastingData-Driven Forecasting

    Balyasny Asset Management

  57. Solving Stochastic Fixed-Point Equations with High Probability

    Jul 10, 2026Jelena DiakonikolasFixed-Point IterationStochastic Approximation

    Department of Computer Sciences University of Wisconsin-Madison

  58. DL-SLAM: Enabling High-Fidelity Gaussian Splatting SLAM in Dynamic Environments based on Dual-Level Probability

    Jul 2, 2026Ziheng Xu, Qingfeng Li, Xuefeng Liu +2Gaussian Splatting Simultaneous Localization And Mapping SystemsSimultaneous Localization And Mapping

    ACMMM 2026, , Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

  59. Sample-Efficient Learning of Probabilistic Causes for Reachability in Markov Decision Processes with Probabilistic Guarantees

    Jun 29, 2026Ryohei Oura, Georgios Fainekos, Hideki Okamoto +1Markov Decision ProcessesReachability

    Toyota Research Institute of North America, Toyota Motor North America · Frontier Research Center, Toyota Motor Corporation

  60. A Mathematical Optimization Approach for Expert-Informed Bayesian Best Subset Selection

    Jun 28, 2026Nolan Alexander, Henning MortveitModel SelectionProbability

    Systems and Information Engineering University of Virginia